Tom Brady vrs Giovanni Carmazzi Predraft Accuracy

[Flugel]

Tom Brady
Notes: Baseball catcher and football quarterback in high school who was drafted by the Montreal Expos in the 18th round of the June 1995 baseball draft. Opted for football and redshirted at Michigan in '95. Saw limited action in '96 and '97 and started the past two years. Completed 3 of 5 passes for 26 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in '96, 12-15-103-0-0 in '97, 214-350-2,636-15-12 in '98 and 180-295-2,216-16-6 in '99, when he often shared time with super sophomore Drew Henson. Went all the way against Alabama in the Orange Bowl and completed 34-46-369-4. Unlike many Michigan quarterbacks, Brady is a pocket-type passer who plays best in a dropback-type system.

Tom Brady Positives: Good height to see the field. Very poised and composed. Smart and alert. Can read coverages. Good accuracy and touch. Produces in big spots and in big games. Has some Brian Griese in him and is a gamer. Generally plays within himself. Team leader.

Negatives: Poor build. Very skinny and narrow. Ended the '99 season weighing 195 pounds and still looks like a rail at 211. Looks a little frail and lacks great physical stature and strength. Can get pushed down more easily than you'd like. Lacks mobility and ability to avoid the rush. Lacks a really strong arm. Can't drive the ball down the field and does not throw a really tight spiral. System-type player who can get exposed if he must ad-lib and do things on his own.

Summary: Is not what you're looking for in terms of physical stature, strength, arm strength and mobility, but he has the intangibles and production and showed great Griese-like improvement as a senior. Could make it in the right system but will not be for everyone.

**** On the Brady 6 feature on the NFL channel - the ONLY franchise that ever contacted Lloyd Carr about Tom Brady was NE. Carr felt compelled to emphasize this.

Let's take a look at the other guy:
Remember Giovanni Carmazzi? Yeah … he’s a yoga-practicing goat farmer these days

By ArtieFufkin

Carmazzi was the 3rd round selection of the 49ers in the 2000 NFL draft. As lifelong 49ers fans, the Bradys were particularly upset that their home team had passed on their son, but the San Francisco brain trust – which included Bill Walsh and Steve Mariucci - were more enamored with Carmazzi, a physically gifted QB from Hofstra who had wowed scouts at the combine and workouts.


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The world according Flugel:

It just goes to show QB has never been an exact science to even the best offensive minds in football. Walsh once built a dynasty off this prospect:

Year	Lge	Team	Age	#	GP	Comp	Att	%	Yds	TD	INT	TD%	INT%	Y/G	Y/A	RAT
1975	NCAA	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	19	0	7	28	66	42.4	507	4	8	6.1	12.1	72.4	7.7	102.7
1977	NCAA	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	21	0	9	99	189	52.4	1604	11	8	5.8	4.2	178.2	8.5	134.4
1978	NCAA	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	22	0	11	141	260	54.2	2010	10	9	3.8	3.5	182.7	7.7	124.9

That's Joe Montana, who's college career had 25 TD passes and 25 INTs with an overall completion percentage under 50%. That's why he got drafted at #82 overall. In comparison, Carmazzi was drafted at #65 overall (1st pick of round 3) in 2000. Even worse is the reality they thought so much more of him than Brady. Not exactly, learning from a major prior miscue when SF made Jim Drunkenmiller's cannon arm the 26th over pick of the 1997 draft.

Lucky for them, when you have perimeter talents like Jerry Rice, John Taylor and eventually TO - you win consistently even with a Steve Bono or a Jeff Garcia. Yes, I understand neither made be a SB Champion caliber; but both were capable of playoffs and 1 Pro Bowls for 2 or 3 different teams. Unfortunately, our passing games have continued to rank with other forgettable passing games. We've auditioned 2 different first round QBs. We've even had Jeff Garcia here for the only time I witnessed a short slant covered 97 yards for a TD reception credited to Andre Davis. Jeff Garcia was post season caliber for TB, Philly and SF while he only looked as good as the tolls provided in Detroit.

Just tossing some random thoughts while we're dealing with the supply and demand of alternatives to our young QB only 21 starts old. We once had an expansion draft choice between Kurt Warner and Scott Milanovich when our SF braintrust at the time preferred the kid with previous gambling problems just 1 happy year before they preferred Spergon Wynn to Tom Brady in round 6. And just to remind people the inexact pre-draft QB science continued - scouts of ALL teams deemed the guy would later sport these numbers as non draft worthy:

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD	AV
1998	27	STL		10	1	0		4	11	36.4	39	0	0.0	0	0.0	21	3.5	3.5	9.8	39.0	47.2	0	0	3.5	3.5	0.0			0
1999*+	28	STL	QB	13	16	16	13-3-0	325	499	65.1	4353	41	8.2	13	2.6	75	8.7	9.2	13.4	272.1	109.2	29	201	7.9	8.3	5.5	1	2	19
2000*	29	STL	QB	13	11	11	8-3-0	235	347	67.7	3429	21	6.1	18	5.2	85	9.9	8.8	14.6	311.7	98.3	20	115	9.0	8.0	5.4	1	2	15
2001*+	30	STL	QB	13	16	16	14-2-0	375	546	68.7	4830	36	6.6	22	4.0	65	8.8	8.4	12.9	301.9	101.4	38	233	7.9	7.4	6.5	1	2	20
2002	31	STL	qb	13	7	6	0-6-0	144	220	65.5	1431	3	1.4	11	5.0	43	6.5	4.5	9.9	204.4	67.4	21	130	5.4	3.6	8.7			2
2003	32	STL	qb	13	2	1	0-1-0	38	65	58.5	365	1	1.5	1	1.5	37	5.6	5.2	9.6	182.5	72.9	6	38	4.6	4.3	8.5			1
2004	33	NYG	QB	13	10	9	5-4-0	174	277	62.8	2054	6	2.2	4	1.4	62	7.4	7.2	11.8	205.4	86.5	39	196	5.9	5.7	12.3	0	1	7
2005	34	ARI	QB	13	10	10	2-8-0	242	375	64.5	2713	11	2.9	9	2.4	63	7.2	6.7	11.2	271.3	85.8	23	158	6.4	6.0	5.8	2	2	7
2006	35	ARI	qb	13	7	5	1-4-0	108	168	64.3	1377	6	3.6	5	3.0	64	8.2	7.6	12.8	196.7	89.3	14	104	7.0	6.4	7.7			5
2007	36	ARI	QB	13	14	11	5-6-0	281	451	62.3	3417	27	6.0	17	3.8	62	7.6	7.1	12.2	244.1	89.8	20	140	7.0	6.5	4.2	1	1	10
2008*	37	ARI	QB	13	16	16	9-7-0	401	598	67.1	4583	30	5.0	14	2.3	79	7.7	7.6	11.4	286.4	96.9	26	182	7.1	7.0	4.2	2	2	15
2009	38	ARI	QB	13	15	15	10-5-0	339	513	66.1	3753	26	5.1	14	2.7	45	7.3	7.1	11.1	250.2	93.2	24	172	6.7	6.5	4.5	1	2	11

I know somebody is just chomping at the bits to inform me that a 21-23 year old QB isn't nearly as ready for success as a 26-27 year old QB. Hence, all the countless comparisons of McCoy to veterans like Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith earlier this year that I said wasn't apples to apples. I look at a young QB attempting to play in Cleveland much like asking a carpenter to go build a house without a hammer, nails and a ladder. Not gonna happen until you equip the lad. And just when I haven't convinced any I have 2 brain cells on speaking terms here, I STILL want us to draft the best QB that falls on our doorstep. I don't KNOW that McCoy will play out like Drew Brees; but how would that story have ended if hotshot 1st round QB didn't holdout while SD finally added receiving talents like Keenan McCardell and Antonio Gates. Brees took 4 years to shake the home crowd from "we know a backup QB when we see one." My world won't end if the asking price for RGIII gets too absurd for comfort. An alternative like Case Keenum doesn't suck and neither would Brandon Weeden especially when we don't have to chew off our left arm to make our right arm stronger.