Rookie QBs Around the League

[Tobalaz]

Originally Posted by Rich4eagle

maybe you guys should ask me about QB's since my record for ten years is 100%............er maybe 98&

It's pretty damn easy to get that many right when you never commit to a qb prior to the draft, take in everything Alo, Jason J and Fugel say, then make your predictions after their first year of play citing "I was behind him all along."
Just like I couldn't get you to answer me about McCoy on draft day.
Oh, forgot, there WAS a qb worth a 1st round pick in your eyes.....
TROY SMITH.
Yup, you've been 100% all right......

[Shep]

I think I do pretty well with quarterbacks overall. Sometimes a guy I think can't miss (Harrington) does miss. I found nothing to NOT like about him, even though he was early in my draftnick days. Smart, fiery, quick release, good arm, athletic...

Just didn't come together on the field. There is some indefinable X-factor. That's why scouts who devote their lives to this whiff like crazy, I guess.

I have a set of criteria:

1. Does he look the part? That is, does he look comfortable dropping back, planting, and throwing off the ear with a compact delivery? Just watch him for a second, not the result. Is he a natural thrower?

2. Is he accurate? Does he put the ball where it needs to be? What was his completion percentage in college?

3. Does he have enough arm? It's tough in the NFL with the closing speed. The windows are really small. It isn't about throwing 67 yards, which happens four times a year.... it's about zip.

4. I like spirals. Yeah, I noticed that Clausen was turning the ball over a little and it bugged me. Also didn't like the exaggerated sideways cock. Waffly balls get caught in the wind. They move. It also speaks to the natural thrower thing.

5. Maybe most important.... is this a smart kid? It's tough in this league to play quarterback if you aren't smart. Yeah, there are variables and the Wonderlic is only one element... but is he smart off AND on the field? Does he get it?

6. Is he a hard worker? It's a homework kind of job, with lots of book learning and it really helps that the guy puts in extra time with his receivers. It speaks to "character," but character is evasive and elastic. I don't think Clausen is a character problem. He has swagger.... but he's also a choirboy and a gym rat, just like McCoy.

7. Does he have the height to see over the garbage and strength to take a hit or two? If he's more like 6'1", is he adept at finding passing lanes really fast?

8. Finally, can he move? I don't mean is he like a running back, but is he nimble enough to negotiate a pocket? Flacco is like 6'6" but he has nice feet, he can move around... totally unlike the guy he was often compared to, Derek Anderson. Anderson is a fucking statue.

I've spent a TON of time being a quarterback fan/aficionado, but I still miss plenty. But I like my record compared to the field, honestly. I didn't like Frye at all. I LOVED Rodgers. I think Kafka is a huge steal and may end up one of the stories of this draft in a few years. I asked over and over why Brady wasn't drafted higher. I like guys like Leinart and Smith and I'll keep standing by that. I think Trent Edwards can play. I had problems with Kolb.

But I do enjoy it.

[Alo]

Those are all good criteria, but the most important part of QB evaluation is watching boatloads of tape.

Some may recall that I was hesitant to take a stand on LeFevour's suckiness because I only managed to catch a few '09 Central Michigan games. In addition, I had to work extra hard to find Troy games to watch Levi Brown.

If you haven't watched at least four games, it's really hard to peg a guy's value and eventual draft position. And because guys are more likely to catch your eye when they have impressive games, you'll tend to overvalue QBs if you've only taken note of them in a game or two.

As a result, I don't think people can claim prescience or should lament their misguidedness because of their takes on John Skelton this year or Kevin Kolb in '07. I doubt many of us watched a ton of Houston in '06 -- Solon may be the only exception -- so folks' opinions probably were based on second-hand info or over-extrapolation based on a game or two.

[Shep]

True, but I mostly just want to watch the kid throw 50 passes in real games. I know it's not enough to be a scout, but it's enough for someone like me.

I watched Kolb in a couple games and then some YouTube stuff. I didn't like the way he threw. He turned it, fluttered the ball a lot. He didn't seem to have much arm. He also looked a little chubby.

Conversely, when I got interested in Kafka after seeing a few Northwestern games (partially thanks to you), I started watching all the clips I could find. The most important thing: I liked the way he threw a football.

Compact release. Tight spiral with some RPMs. Didn't look like he had to think much about it. I saw more arm than many, and Reid just backed that up, saying he has "way more than an average NFL arm." In a scrimmage and then a game, the threw TD passes of 50 and 57 yards... and that's AFTER his OC said he's never seen a rookie quarterback pick things up so fast.

Hey. He got a 36 on his Wonderlic. And we're talking about a guy who was best known for his athleticism before his senior year!

Originally Posted by Alo

Those are all good criteria, but the most important part of QB evaluation is watching boatloads of tape.

Some may recall that I was hesitant to take a stand on LeFevour's suckiness because I only managed to catch a few '09 Central Michigan games. In addition, I had to work extra hard to find Troy games to watch Levi Brown.

If you haven't watched at least four games, it's really hard to peg a guy's value and eventual draft position. And because guys are more likely to catch your eye when they have impressive games, you'll tend to overvalue QBs if you've only taken note of them in a game or two.

As a result, I don't think people can claim prescience or should lament their misguidedness because of their takes on John Skelton this year or Kevin Kolb in '07. I doubt many of us watched a ton of Houston in '06 -- Solon may be the only exception -- so folks' opinions probably were based on second-hand info or over-extrapolation based on a game or two.

[Alo]

The Cowboys cut UDFA QB Matt Nichols, who looked awful in the Boys' second pre-season game. His arm strength is marginal at best.

However, Nichols does have his supporters in the draft community; Todd McShay had him as his 2010 sleeper QB. And the Browns were one of the teams that worked him out before the draft.

It'll be interesting to see whether he gets a shot with another team.

[Sez.EJ]

Rich.. You wanted McCoy in the first round for us as I recall. So what's your take on his debut? I say just average ..had some terrible throws and some good ones..But he seemed like he was drafted in the right spot to me. .. 3rd round project.. So.. I'm not sold on your first round assessment of him is on target at all.. .. Perhaps your memory of pimping him as a #1 pick has slipped a bit?

[Shep]

I think the 3rd round was just right for McCoy. He's not a sure thing but he has a lot you can't help but like. I think the last few months have done nothing to alter that perception: He has a ton to learn about NFL offenses and he does NOT have a plus arm.

I'm eager to watch him this week, see if he can put up a good showing after a couple really bad ones. I don't think the Browns can afford to pass on the top QBs next year if they're not really sold on McCoy yet. A window is opening here and they don't stay open forever... and you aren't gonna win any trophies without a top 10 quarterback in this league in this era.

[golfer704u]

Originally Posted by Shep

I think the 3rd round was just right for McCoy. He's not a sure thing but he has a lot you can't help but like. I think the last few months have done nothing to alter that perception: He has a ton to learn about NFL offenses and he does NOT have a plus arm.

I'm eager to watch him this week, see if he can put up a good showing after a couple really bad ones. I don't think the Browns can afford to pass on the top QBs next year if they're not really sold on McCoy yet. A window is opening here and they don't stay open forever... and you aren't gonna win any trophies without a top 10 quarterback in this league in this era.

If what I am reading is correct, you won't get much of a chance to see McCoy now till likely the last preseason game.

I think someone else posted Ratliff was going to be #3 this week right? ANd Another story just said Delhomme will play into the second quarter and then Wallace will go with the ones. That means ratliff starts the second half and McCoy gets mop up time.

Then the 3rd game is where the starters play the longest.

No matter how much we all want to see McCoy, I don't think Holmgren has any plans to play him more just because fans want to see him. The stated plan was for him not to start at all this year. So why would he get significant playing time in the preseason?

[Flugel]

Originally Posted by golfer704u

No matter how much we all want to see McCoy, I don't think Holmgren has any plans to play him more just because fans want to see him. The stated plan was for him not to start at all this year. So why would he get significant playing time in the preseason?

Very good point Golfer! With Holmgren's extensive experience at developing young QBs comes the logic that enables success.

McCoy will get some action in the 2nd preseason game if he can give it a go. I wouldn't anticipate more than 2 or 3 series though. Then, the 3rd preseason game is usually when they try to give the starters about 3 quarters of action as the dress rehearsal for the regular season opener. I can't see him getting alot of reps in that game. He'll probably get the most action in the 4th preseason game with alot of guys that are on the bubble.
- Tom F.

[Alo]

Kafka was awful tonight.

[Tobalaz]

I find it to be a pain in the ass to judge a qb on whether or not he's going to be a good pro coming out because you can watch all the film in the world, you can break down footwork and throwing motions, you can take iq tests, you can look at his size and injury history and look at their body of work from pee-wee all the way through college.
And a qb can ace all that criteria and still bust.
Part of it is we're not in those interviews and see how bad the guy wants it or if his team mates really thinks he can lead a team and command the respect of those around him.
Part of it is we don't know if he'll ever be able to adjust to a pro offense and speed of the game.
And another part is we don't know if they get rattled if they're ever going to be able to shake it off.
Is it swagger or attitude?
Confidence or entitlement?
There's just too damn much we don't know to get a lock on whether or not this guy is going to be THE guy.

2009, the only guys I thought that were going to be franchise qbs were Bradford and McCoy.
2010 it was just Bradford as a franchise guy and McCoy slid to developmental status prior to the draft in my mind (and I thought Timmy T had a good chance at being a developmental guy since they brought in a special qb coach just for him).
Any of these rookies can have good games and bad games, sway our way of thinking they could be the future and prove some of us right or wrong as time goes on.
It's just too damn hard as an armature to correctly judge, for us it just boils down to a guessing game.
Don't get me wrong, it's still fun and something I'm going to keep doing, but honestly I'm going to stick to linemen more often than qbs as far as predictions go. It's just what I know best.

[Riffer X]

Originally Posted by Alo

Kafka was awful tonight.

What? OMG, okay just let me say I never really liked the guy before everybody else.

Thank God we took McCoy and not this meatball, he played at Northwestern for goodness sake