scouting the falcons

[Shep]

Originally Posted by BernietheKid

Well considering he went two spots ahead of McCoy and we didn't have a pick until #85 it seems like we couldn't have drafted him. The pick we had at #71 we traded to the Eagles for Hardesty.

National Football League: NFL Draft Tracker 2010

I know. That's why I said "would have." That's the guy the Browns would have drafted at 85, but he was taken.

[Flugel]

Originally Posted by JewDago

i watched the falcons and the niners today, and here's what i saw:

the falcons didn't run the ball well at all, and matt ryan was extremely inconsistent. michael turner had a few good runs, but the niner D had him pretty well bottled up most of the day, a lot of which was because of patrick willis, the consummate beast. for anyone who questioned just how good he is, he made four solo tackles within two yards of the line of scrimmage, and he sifted through traffic and avoided blockers to make them.

it'll be interesting to see whom the coaching staff chooses to match up against roddy white. he runs fantastic routes, but a strong corner, brown or haden, should be able to press him at the line and take him off his game, and eric wright's speed matches up well against harry douglas, which really only leaves the question of whom to put on tony gonzalez, which i think has to be sheldon brown, because he's got the size/strength combo to match up with gonzalez. the only problem in all of that is that it leaves a rookie isolated on the falcons' best receiver, which could be a recipe for massive disaster, but there simply isn't a LB on the roster who can stay with gonzalez.

the falcons' D got good pressure on smith, which was part of what threw off his game this week and seems to be a recurring theme. smith's protection is very inconsistent, and when guys get in on him, they do it quickly, though he did throw a completely inexcusable INT on a jump pass off his back foot late over the middle to frank gore that sailed high, went off gore's hand, and into a LB's hands. it was a pass he never should have thrown and one that pressure definitely didn't cause. though the falcons only got a single sack and three QB hits, they did a lot that doesn't show up. their pressure caused hurried, inaccurate throws, but i don't think they'll be able to throw anything at our O-line that they can't handle as long as we keep a back in to handle any right-side overload blitzes. their 4-3 isn't a huge concern like the ravens' or steelers' 3-4s are, nor does it present the potential for confusion that other defenses do. it's a pretty straightforward D.

when the browns are on offense, they're going to have to run the ball effectively, not for two yards per carry. that's what did the niners in today; frank gore couldn't get anything going, which put the game in alex smith's tiny hands. likewise, peyton hillis is going to have to get the browns into second and six on a consistent basis, which will then make play action a viable weapon and keep the offense out of third-and-long situations.

the receivers need to step up their respective games, but that kind of goes without saying. crabtree was able to get open and get catches, as was vernon davis. the falcons' D is vulnerable if the QB is willing to throw downfield. whoever our QB is just needs to believe in the guys he's throwing to enough to take chances.

our D should be able to get to ryan fairly well. the falcons' O-line surrendered three sacks to the niners, two to parys haralson and one to travis laboy, and matt roth and marcus benard are easily the equivalent of those two guys if not better than they are. if we're able to add shaun rogers into that mix along with the occasional creative blitz, harassing ryan into mistakes is a distinct possibility.

however, it's all going to start with shutting down the falcons' running game. michael turner is always a threat, and if the browns don't stop by shutting him down and forcing ryan into second and third and longs, the defense will wear down and become vulnerable to play action, and the falcons will be able to do whatever they want.

Thanks for detailed scouting report here JD!

Very good points! The thing to remember for every chess match is the chess pieces you have to attack with. FANS don't like knowing how easy it is for an opponent to realize at halftime - "we have to stop the TEs in centerfield and the running game." That usually happens and we're blaming Daboll about the chess pieces of the passing game we try to attack with.

Unfortunately, Robiskie has been injured enough to stunt his growth. HOWEVER, Chansi Stuckey, not a misprint, flashed signs of ready to emerge last week. MoMass hasn't looked ready to be our #1 WR; but I think it's way too early to say I doubt he can be a solid #2 some day. Cribbs had shown me some improvement like 2 or 3 weeks ago he had 5 receptions and then he got interfered with which means he was beating someone else with a route so they got busted for grabsies/interference.

Teams are ALWAYS gonna plan to take away what you're best at doing. One thing they can't take away is our oline's work ethic that has worked well with Peyton Hillis smash mouth football. I haven't really seen horrible protection now that our right side has Pork Chop and Pashos as the tandem. I'm hoping our passing game outside the hash marks improves because this is where we've had the pick 6 vrs KC, almost pick 6 to Ronde Barber (3 yard line), and passes Brady Quinning out of bounds. This has been an area of frustration thus far. I'd love to see us find a slot receiver when defenses are paying our TEs more attention that can also work outside the hashes for our QBs. Maybe Chansi Stuckey is ready for this?

Defensively, JD nailed it. Heading into the Ravens game I was most worried about their TE shredding Elam. Unfortunately, they saw someone with lazy habits on film and made Eric Wright the bullseye of their success. Others have said this, maybe he shouldn't be the #1 or #2 corner at this time until he earns it. Roddy White better have someone ready to compete on his hip and in his face. Is Joe Haden ready to be that guy? Even if he is, is Rob Ryan ready to put that on him? That's a big question BUT how fresh in your memory is Anquan Boldin doing whatever he wanted to Eric Wright? Nothing against Boldin but he hasn't been THAT good before our matchup and at the close of last season. For those of us that remember Bob Slowik's surrender flag cushions on game day - nothing takes the wind out of the sail like that. At least COMPETE with where you position guys or plug in a jam to disrupt timing as a worst case scenario. Something. We're not gonna get alot of sacks when an opponent does a 3 step drop so we HAVE to consider messing with the timing of their routes that are dependent upon precision and timing to a projected area of the field. Those aren't reads beyond pre-snap.

Anyway, thanks again JD!
- Tom F.

[DawgFan]

The Falcons have been the BENEFICIARY of 2 fluke plays...and because of that are 3-1.
The Browns are the VICTIM of 2 fluke plays (3 if you count the dropped INT by Ward vs Baltimore) and are 1-3 because of that.

In other words, despite the desperate records, they are essentially the same level team.

Now, for a couple of statistical comments:

The Falcons are considered the 11th ranked D vs the run...but that is because they haven't faced a team that COMMITTED to the run.

They have a y/c against average of 4.6 y/c, which is ranked tied for 20th in the league. In other words, you can run on them. The Browns only give up 3.8 per carry.

Meanwhile, the Browns have Hillis who is averaging 4.9 y/c and the Browns are definitely COMMITTED to the run. Side note, Hillis did this with Wallace at QB so he faced 8 in the box the entire time. Likely we get Delhomme back this week, and though you may not like his game, he will spread the field some. Atlanta averages only 3.9 y/c...so it is the number of carries (not the ability) that gets them the yards.

Atlanta is getting a lot of credit for their passing game. Interesting note, THEY HAVE ZERO PLAYS OVER 40 YARDS!!! (and are tied with the Browns, the ones we think have terrible passing, with only 10 completions of 20+....and the Browns have 4 40+ pass completions)

Defensively, they both have given up 2 for 40+, but the Browns have given up 13 for 20+ compared to Atlanta only giving up 9.



What this all tells me is that this is going to be a game of who can run the ball better, and who can cover the RB's and TE's the best. There may be one big play in the passing game...but the Browns are actually the more likely to hit it than the Falcons.

Based on the overall strength of the Browns BOTH offensively and defensively in the rushing game....and the lack of a downfield passing game from the Falcons....and the fact it is in Cleveland...this is not only a winnable game, but one I EXPECT the Browns to win.

[BernietheKid]

Originally Posted by Shep

I know. That's why I said "would have." That's the guy the Browns would have drafted at 85, but he was taken.

We could have; should have, and would have but the fact of the matter is we didn't. So there is no use in looking back and thinking what might have been.

[Enigmatic Evil]

THANK YOU DF! I've been chiming over and over again that Atlanta may be a good team but they're not out of our level. They're bogged down with the same kind of inconsistencies that our team is. The only difference, TRUE, difference between the two teams is that Atlanta has some very legitimate play makers on offense (on defense... that's more debatable)

They have some good players on offense but that's the thing, they have to beat us. This isn't like last year where we had to hold our breath every game and pray to whichever diety that may have been listening for our D to hold it together. We have, or at least are on the verge of having, a truly legitimate defense. Our offense is scoring points (Its so weird, right?) and we're keeping competitive in games for the ENTIRE game.

I think the key will be playing SMART football. Dog the coaches all you want guys, but they called, for the most part, a pretty impressive game. We can't get caught over eager with the blitzing, Matt Ryan WILL burn us and that's one of the things I'm worried most about. There's a REASON we keep getting burned by the pass attack, it seems like we don't make a solid effort with the gameplan to contain the pass attack. Atlanta may not have a play over 40 yards yet, but I would not be surprised if we got burned once or twice for big yardage this sunday.

This is a game I'm looking forward to seeing, because Atlanta is one of my favorite NFC teams. They are a team I keep waiting to break out to that next level but they're just missing a few key pieces to the puzzle, on both sides of the ball. We can win this game.

We're going to head into Pittsburgh 2-3 guys. Mark it down now! Hammer, I'm just keeping consistent since I've called for a win every week so far

Originally Posted by DawgFan

The Falcons have been the BENEFICIARY of 2 fluke plays...and because of that are 3-1.
The Browns are the VICTIM of 2 fluke plays (3 if you count the dropped INT by Ward vs Baltimore) and are 1-3 because of that.

In other words, despite the desperate records, they are essentially the same level team.

Now, for a couple of statistical comments:

The Falcons are considered the 11th ranked D vs the run...but that is because they haven't faced a team that COMMITTED to the run.

They have a y/c against average of 4.6 y/c, which is ranked tied for 20th in the league. In other words, you can run on them. The Browns only give up 3.8 per carry.

Meanwhile, the Browns have Hillis who is averaging 4.9 y/c and the Browns are definitely COMMITTED to the run. Side note, Hillis did this with Wallace at QB so he faced 8 in the box the entire time. Likely we get Delhomme back this week, and though you may not like his game, he will spread the field some. Atlanta averages only 3.9 y/c...so it is the number of carries (not the ability) that gets them the yards.

Atlanta is getting a lot of credit for their passing game. Interesting note, THEY HAVE ZERO PLAYS OVER 40 YARDS!!! (and are tied with the Browns, the ones we think have terrible passing, with only 10 completions of 20+....and the Browns have 4 40+ pass completions)

Defensively, they both have given up 2 for 40+, but the Browns have given up 13 for 20+ compared to Atlanta only giving up 9.



What this all tells me is that this is going to be a game of who can run the ball better, and who can cover the RB's and TE's the best. There may be one big play in the passing game...but the Browns are actually the more likely to hit it than the Falcons.

Based on the overall strength of the Browns BOTH offensively and defensively in the rushing game....and the lack of a downfield passing game from the Falcons....and the fact it is in Cleveland...this is not only a winnable game, but one I EXPECT the Browns to win.

[Shep]

Great post. I was looking at some of the same stats. YPC is way more important because you can't control how many times the other team runs the ball... only how you defend it.

The Browns are 14th and the Falcons 20th in YPC.

I agree that they're much closer than the records and the Browns are at home. Browns are a pretty popular pick, actually (King, ESPN).

Originally Posted by DawgFan

The Falcons have been the BENEFICIARY of 2 fluke plays...and because of that are 3-1.
The Browns are the VICTIM of 2 fluke plays (3 if you count the dropped INT by Ward vs Baltimore) and are 1-3 because of that.

In other words, despite the desperate records, they are essentially the same level team.

Now, for a couple of statistical comments:

The Falcons are considered the 11th ranked D vs the run...but that is because they haven't faced a team that COMMITTED to the run.

They have a y/c against average of 4.6 y/c, which is ranked tied for 20th in the league. In other words, you can run on them. The Browns only give up 3.8 per carry.

Meanwhile, the Browns have Hillis who is averaging 4.9 y/c and the Browns are definitely COMMITTED to the run. Side note, Hillis did this with Wallace at QB so he faced 8 in the box the entire time. Likely we get Delhomme back this week, and though you may not like his game, he will spread the field some. Atlanta averages only 3.9 y/c...so it is the number of carries (not the ability) that gets them the yards.

Atlanta is getting a lot of credit for their passing game. Interesting note, THEY HAVE ZERO PLAYS OVER 40 YARDS!!! (and are tied with the Browns, the ones we think have terrible passing, with only 10 completions of 20+....and the Browns have 4 40+ pass completions)

Defensively, they both have given up 2 for 40+, but the Browns have given up 13 for 20+ compared to Atlanta only giving up 9.



What this all tells me is that this is going to be a game of who can run the ball better, and who can cover the RB's and TE's the best. There may be one big play in the passing game...but the Browns are actually the more likely to hit it than the Falcons.

Based on the overall strength of the Browns BOTH offensively and defensively in the rushing game....and the lack of a downfield passing game from the Falcons....and the fact it is in Cleveland...this is not only a winnable game, but one I EXPECT the Browns to win.

[Flugel]

Originally Posted by DawgFan

The Falcons have been the BENEFICIARY of 2 fluke plays...and because of that are 3-1.
The Browns are the VICTIM of 2 fluke plays (3 if you count the dropped INT by Ward vs Baltimore) and are 1-3 because of that.

In other words, despite the desperate records, they are essentially the same level team.

Now, for a couple of statistical comments:

The Falcons are considered the 11th ranked D vs the run...but that is because they haven't faced a team that COMMITTED to the run.

Good stuff! Worth noting, the Falcons actually did face a team committed to the run when they lost 9-6 to Pitt. I think that went into OT. But in the end, they caved in against Rashard Mendenhall. That's a good thing for us to consider here regarding the matchup with Atlanta today.

Teams that win because of luck and those that lose because of bad luck tend to have some explanations. When Tampa rendered our running game to racing the clock because they snatched a lead from our passing game; it exposed where we need to get better. From what I gathered in our next matchup vrs KC - the biggest SWING in that game was a pick 6. I didn't recall KC's offense driving for any TDs on us otherwise. Even so, that was a 2 point loss where Dawson missed an extremely doable 40 yard FG. The running game that day setup a beautiful playaction TD pass to Cribbs when we busted Eric Berry cheating up into the box on the play. And then there's the Baltimore game where our passing game looked pretty good most of the day.

I just try to tell those guys that think Daboll is the only reason our offense sputters that teams know exactly what they need to adjust to in half 2 (if they haven't already done it in half 1). ALOT of our passing issues can be resolved with some continuity of understanding who's who from 1 week to the next. I don't want us playing musical QBs. If Jake's gonna be a gametime decision it tells me he won't be able to get back into his dropbacks fast enough or plant and fire the way he needs to. There's not that big of a talent difference between Jake & Seneca for us to feel like we need to start a wounded 35 year old QB at this time IMO.

Positives about the passing game? Time to throw is better; especially when we aren't rendered into the predictability of racing the clock to erase a 2nd half deficit. The improved productivity of the TE position has been wonderful (Moore and Watson). Also, the running game opens up the playaction so a deep pass to Joshua Cribbs for a TD is indeed possible. Last year when Jerome Harrison ran a 10k through KC's defense - they ended up with 9 men in the box and corner cushions the size of 10-15 yards. Brady Quinn threw 2 Kris Kringles to those corners so the QBing is better this year. I think BOTH Qbs have looked good at times while they're on a team that hasn't been able to overcome the pick 6 vrs KC or the almost pick 6 that put Tampa on our 3 yard line (supplemented by more turnovers from the offense). The defense played pretty well vrs Tampa considering what the offense asked of them to defend. "Here's 3 yards to work with guys - go get em." Later that day, they had a goal line stand from another turnover deep in our territory. The teams with a little more balance in their offensive attacks tend to be those that can overcome that; especially if they have elite defenses supporting them. I call this margin of error that has made alot of steelheaded goofballs overrate the Rapist in Pittsburgh. They're 3-1 without the felon. Before someone wants to bring up his game vrs Arizona - the ending wasn't possible without Harrison's 100 yard interception return earlier right? Margin oif error - say no more.

If I compare THIS team to the one we had in 2008 - it's ALOT more fun to watch. We've had a chance to win every matchup late in the 4th quasrter. In 2008, we were out of every matchup in the 1st quarter. During all this time, we've had to purge the overpaid, bad attitudes, shoulda-retireds, bad draftees or just wrong guys for the scheme like Corey Williams, Ted Washington, Shaun Smith, Donte Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Kevin Shaffer, Joe Andruzzi, Hank Fraley, Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson, Ken Dorsey, Antwaan Peek, Willie McGinest, Dave Zastudil, Jamal Lewis, Steve Heiden, etc. The point of mentioning that? I kind of LIKED what Mangini did with the inheritance of the 08 draft (1 keeper) and only 4 draft picks scheduled for 2009. SOME of the Jets we have were very helpful at the close of last year (David Bowens, Jason Trusnik and Brian Schaefering in particular) and Kenyan Coleman looks pretty good this year. We're getting there and looking forward to growth from the passing game. It's doable or we wouldn't be watching each week right?
- Tom F. (Ever sense I took tha Evelyn Woodhead sped reddin korse, my reddin has impruved onederfully & my dislecksia is gone. Yers ken 2 by dyling 1-800-EZREDDN or 1-800-EZRITEN)