Mock v. 1.1

[Alo]

To be honest, I'm not overly proud of this edition: I feel like Taylor Mays and Chad Jones will end up in the 1st round, but I couldn't find spots for them.

I'm planning on adding a 2nd round this weekend.At that point, I might also tweak the second half of the 1st round.

Enjoy!


1. St. Louis Rams – Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska

Reports have surfaced linking the Rams to Michael Vick, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Rams try to reunite OC Pat Shurmur with one of the quarterbacks he coached in Philly, be it Donovan McNabb or Kevin Kolb. If that doesn’t happen, Clausen and Bradford become strong possibilities here, but Suh is the choice for now. Though the Rams used two of their last three first round picks on defensive linemen, none of them were once in a decade talents like Suh; passing on Ndamukong because of them would be a major mistake.

2. Detroit Lions – Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma

Jim Schwartz needs a dynamic defensive tackle who can make the surrounding pieces better, like Albert Haynesworth did for his defense in Tennessee. Though McCoy isn’t quite a prospect on the level of Mr. Suh – he’s not as strong and sometimes has trouble disengaging from blocks – his ability to make an impact in the run & pass game will open up opportunities for the other young defenders on Detroit’s D.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Eric Berry DB Tennessee

Berry was a bit less impressive in ‘09, but he deserves credit for taking on an unselfish role in Monte Kiffin’s defense, playing some corner and taking on blocks in the run game. That message surely will be conveyed to Bucs head coach Raheem Morris, who served as a DBacks coach under Kiffin in ‘07-’08. As a result, Berry will become a very nice consolation prize for the Bucs, who were looking for one of the top two d-tackles to be available here.

4. Washington Redskins – Sam Bradford QB Notre Dame (Previous Pick: Jimmy Clausen)

It’s hard to say which quarterback will be taken here. Though Tim Tebow would love to be picked here so he can start doing DC work for Focus on the Family, the debate likely comes down to Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen. Though new coach Mike Shanahan has plenty of experience dealing with diva signal callers - *cough* Jay Cutler *cough* - the concerns about Clausen's quirky personality could push Sam Bradford into this slot. Though questions about Bradford's bum wing still need to be answered - he's reportedly ahead of schedule on his rehab - his super-accuracy makes him a perfect fit for the West Coast offense Shanahan likes to run.

5. Kansas City Chiefs – Russell Okung OT Oklahoma State

Though Kansas City’s line did a good job opening up holes for Jamaal Charles, they still could use some help in pass pro to protect their big investment in Matt Cassel. Okung could start immediately at left tackle, allowing Branden Albert to kick inside to guard or flip over to right tackle.

6. Seattle Seahawks – Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame (Previous Pick: Sam Bradford)

Pete Carroll may try to bring in Matt Leinart, but Kurt Warner’s retirement makes that less likely to happen. Instead, Carroll brings in Jimmy Clausen, who's fared pretty well against Carroll's USC squad back in October. If the concerns about Clausen's character reach a fever point, he could fall much lower for this, but I'm betting the Seahawks' desperation for a new franchise quarterback will have them gunning for whichever of the top two guys is available here.

7. Cleveland Browns – Joe Haden CB Florida

The Browns’ defense showed some promise late in the season, using a complex blitz attack to get after the quarterback. However, the Browns can’t continue to let their cornerbacks play on an island if Brandon McDonald’s starting outside. Joe Haden will allow them to stay aggressive and will give Eric Mangini the opportunity to groom another shutdown corner.

8. Oakland Raiders – Carlos Dunlap DE Florida

Dunlap is the riskiest pick the Raiders could make here. As a result, it’s probably the one Crazy Al will make. Though the organization is expected to lock Richard Seymour in the Al Davis dungeon by slapping a franchise tag on him, Dunlap would bring more size, speed, and athleticism to Oakland's front seven. On passing downs, both Dunlap and Seymour could reduce inside, turning Tommy Kelly - who made $7M in '09 but only notched one sack - into a two down player.

9. Buffalo Bills – Bryan Bulaga OT Iowa

Chan Gailey recently said that his first task is to address the quarterback situation, but there isn’t a QB prospect worth taking here. Instead, the Bills address their pass protection issues by drafting Bryan Bulaga, who struggled with health & inconsistency issues before turning it on late in the year. Bulaga did an excellent job against Derrick Morgan and didn’t even seem challenged by Ohio State’s Thaddeus Gibson; that makes him a credible candidate to start immediately on the blind side of Buffalo’s o-line.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars – Derrick Morgan DE Georgia Tech

The Jaguars’ defense notched a pathetic 14 sacks in ‘09. Derrick Harvey is a major disappointment, and there’s speculation that the team could formally give up on the Quentin Groves experiment. That makes Morgan, the most accomplished and refined pass rusher in this class, the logical pick here. And with Jags GM Gene Smith publicly committing the Jaguars to an "attacking" 4-3, Morgan - who doesn't fit anywhere in an odd front - makes even more sense here.

11. Denver Broncos – Dez Bryant WR Oklahoma State

With Brandon Marshall expected to be shipped elsewhere this offseason, the Broncos will be looking for a new #1 wideout. Enter Dez Bryant, whose ability to bring in inaccurate throws and generate yardage after the catch make him a perfect fit for Denver’s offense. But if Bryant isn’t able to dispel concerns about his maturity and work ethic, he could slide lower than this.

12. Miami Dolphins – Rolando McClain LB Alabama

Mike Nolan will want a smart, disciplined leader in the middle of his defense, and Channing Crowder isn’t that. McClain isn’t quite the caliber of prospect Patrick Willis was, but his combination of size & field generalship will impress both Parcells & Nolan. If Dez Bryant’s available here, the Dolphins would have to be tempted at least a little, but Parcells’ aversion to taking a receiver this high could keep McClain here as the Fins’ pick.

13. San Francisco 49ers – C.J. Spiller RB Oklahoma (Previous Pick: Trent Williams)

A bit of a surprise pick for the Niners, who are expected by many to address their deficiencies on the line or the secondary with their first pick. Instead, they opt for CJ Spiller, an explosive playmaker who'll add a new layer to the Niners' offense, which has been opened up to give Alex Smith a better chance at success. Frank Gore is only 26 years old, but his long history of foot and knee injuries could limit his shelf life. By adding a speed complement in Spiller, the Niners will be able to reduce Gore's carries and have a viable backfield option if Gore gets hurt; though Glen Coffee played well last preseason, his production in real games was less than encouraging (2.7 YPC).

14. Seattle Seahawks – Jason Pierre-Paul DE USF (Previous Pick: C.J. Spiller)

The Seahawks pass defense struggled in '09, in part because their front four didn't generate much pressure: they only notched 28 sacks, which tied them for the 5th fewest in the league. As a result, the Seahawks bring in Jason Pierre-Paul, whose physical build and freakishly long arms make him the prototypical pass rusher. Though somewhat raw, Pierre-Paul can learn behind ends Lawrence Jackson and Patrick Kerney before assuming a starting role. And while Earl Thomas and Taylor Mays are possibilities here, the Seahawks can address the position a round or two later with this very deep safety class. With great coaching and some good luck, Pierre-Paul could end up being the best defensive end, perhaps even the best defensive player, to come out of this draft.

15. New York Giants – Earl Thomas DB Texas

New DC Perry Fewell built the #2 pass defense in the league in Buffalo on the backs of two “undersized” safeties, Donte Whitner and Jairus Byrd. In Earl Thomas, the Giants bring in a similar type of pint-sized playmaker: an Eric Berry lite, if you will. Also, his ability to play both safety and cornerback provides the Giants some versatility, should Kenny Phillips manage to return despite his potentially career-threatening knee issues.

16. Tennessee Titans –Lawrence Jackson DE USC (Previous Pick: Jason Pierre-Paul)

Jackson is expected to floor the coaches and front office people assembled at the Combine by running a super-fast 40 at 280 lbs. Though many are down on the uber gifted edge rusher, with some even comparing him to Vernon Gholston, the Titans will take a chance on the enigmatic but raw underclassman, hoping that he can replace the pressure Kyle Vanden-Bosch once generated off the edge.

17. San Francisco 49ers –Trent Williams OT Oklahoma (Previous Pick: Taylor Mays)

The Niners opt to bolster the right side of their line by drafting Trent Williams. Though Williams' backing out of the Senior Bowl raised some red flags, his toughness playing through pain in ‘09 will endear him to McCloughan & Singletary In order to keep Alex Smith, the Niners need an upgrade at right tackle; though they could consider going with a pass rusher or defensive back here, I think their board will end up nudging them towards Williams.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers – Anthony Davis OT Rutgers

Davis arguably has the highest upside than any of the tackles in this class, but his inconsistency and past struggles with weight & effort issues cause him to slide here. The Steelers need to find a way to protect Ben Roethlisberger: the injuries are beginning to mount and the questions raised by his teammates about his toughness are killing team unity. While Davis may need to start out on the right side, possibly at guard, he eventually could do a great job protecting Big Ben’s blindside.

19. Atlanta Falcons – Sean Weatherspoon LB Missouri (Previous Pick: Lawrence Jackson)

Weatherspoon didn't have the most impressive year, but word emerged at the Senior Bowl that he played about ten pounds heavier than in previous years. Back to his proper playing weight, Weatherspoon impressed in Mobile, showing up all over the field during the game and exhibiting some charisma and leadership on the sideline. In addition to addressing one of the Falcons' biggest draft needs, Weatherspoon fits the high effort, top-flight character profile Tom Dimitroff looks for in his draft picks. Though pass rush is also a major need for the Falcons, look for them to address it via free agency; they're expected to be major players in the Julius Peppers sweepstakes.

20. Houston Texans - Dan Williams DT Tennessee (Previous Pick: Jonathan Dwyer)

With the addition of Defensive Rookie of the Year Brian Cushing, Houston's defense made great strides in '09. However, they still lack girth in the middle of their defensive line. By adding Dan Williams, the Texans get a prototypical one technique to line up alongside Mario Williams, Antonio Smith, and the still-developing Amobi Okoye. They could go with a running back, but Williams' run-stuffing ability is too enticing to pass up on here.

21. Cincinnati Bengals – Damian Williams WR USC

Losing TJ Houshmandzadeh and Chris Henry devastated the Bengals’ passing attack. Adding the silky smooth Williams would be a smart move; he’s polished enough to start immediately and has the potential to become their #1 when Chad Ochocinco ceases to be a Bengal.

22. New EnglandPatriots – Jared Odrick DT Penn State (Previous Pick: Mike Iupati)

After dominating in Mobile, Odrick cemented his status as a legit 1st round defensive linemen, whether it's in a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme. Though Odrick's past character issues make him an atypical Pats pick, his length and disruptiveness in the trenches makes him a perfect fit for their scheme. With some added bulk and some refinement of his technique, Odrick could be the next Aaron Smith, which makes him more than worth being picked here.

23. Green Bay Packers – Bruce Campbell OT Maryland

Campbell is a freakish athlete, but he’s also a bit raw and has been beset with injuries. Nevertheless, he’s a good pick for the Packers here: he’s got Ryan Clady potential, which would make the Packers’ offense even more special. Unfortunately, he also could be the next Kwame Harris, but Ted Thompson will trust his coaching staff to make sure Campbell ends up much better.

24. Philadelphia Eagles –Brandon Graham DE Michigan

Graham topped off his solid senior year off by dominating at the Senior Bowl, impressing during practice and winning MVP honors in the actual game. However, the Combine may end up muffling some of his draft mojo. Already measured in at 6'1", 263 lbs. with short 30.5" arms, Graham isn't expected to run a fast 40, which could downgrade his stock. More importantly, he needs to show some ability in linebacker drills; if he doesn't, going to the Eagles here could be his ceiling. But if he does, a whole new world of draft money opens up for him, with the Pats (#22), Niners (#13, #17), and Dolphins (#12) all becoming distinct draft possibilities.

25. Baltimore Ravens – Golden Tate WR Notre Dame

The Ravens might prefer a receiver with better size, but Tate’s the best one available here. In addition to being a playmaker at wideout, Tate could put points on the board as the team’s primary punt returner, giving the Ravens what Cam Cameron thought he was getting when he drafted Ted Ginn back in Miami.

26. Arizona Cardinals – Jermaine Gresham TE Oklahoma

Gresham has legit top 15 talent, but concerns about his durability and character have him sliding here. The Cardinals don’t need more weapons, but they might want to give Matt Leinart different ones. A receiving tight end can be a young quarterback’s best friend, as Gresham was to Sam Bradford at Oklahoma. Gresham’s length also will serve Arizona well, should Matt Leinart continue to suffer from always-too-high inaccuracy.

27. Dallas Cowboys – Mike Iupati OL Idaho (Previous Pick: Chad Jones)

Iupati impressed at the Senior Bowl practices, but his struggles in the game proved that he'll need to start out his pro as a mauling guard, only later trying to transform himself into an offensive tackle. In Dallas, Iupati would be afforded an excelling opportuntity to do so. Though Iupati wouldn't immediately address the Cowboys' pass blocking issues, his size and power at left guard would make their interior line even more dominant, boosting the running game and setting up more play action possibilities. Though an unsexy and - based on the Senior Bowl game - somewhat risky pick, adding Iupati could reap huge dividends.

28. San Diego Chargers – Jon Dwyer RB Georgia Tech (Previous Pick: Dan Williams)

With LaDainian Tomlinson expected to get the hatchet, the Chargers need to add another back to complement Darren Sproles. Though they could go with Jahvid Best, Dwyer gives them a power running style the team's lacked since Michael Turner left via free agency. How Dwyer looks in receiving drills will be especially important, as the Chargers like to get their backs involved in the passing game. If he drops more than a few, this pick could end up being Best.

29. New York Jets - Kyle Wilson CB Boise State(Previous Pick: Corey Wootton)

Rex Ryan's attacking 3-4 requires lockdown corners at both boundaries. Though Darrelle Revis more than capably covers one side of the field, Lito Sheppard isn't expected to be back and Dwight Lowery's better off playing nickel. For that reason, the Jets add Wilson here, who'll ride a great Senior Bowl week and Combine all the way up to the first round.

30. Minnesota Vikings - Brian Price DT UCLA

Price deserves to go higher than this, but his less than ideal size and limited scheme fit lead to him being available here. At this point, Price is a great value pick for the Vikings, who can have him serve as an understudy to Kevin Williams.

31. Indianapolis Colts – Maurkice Pouncey C Florida (Previous Pick: Jared Odrick)

With Jeff Saturday turning 35 in June, the Colts draft his eventual replacement. Pouncey could start out at guard, moving in to center when Saturday's no longer playing on Sundays. Though the Colts have had luck sacrificing size and athleticism for smarts on their OL, Pouncey offers the intriguing possibility of giving them all three qualities in a 6'5", 318 pound run-blocking package.

32. New Orleans Saints - Sergio Kindle LB Texas (Previous Pick: Navorro Bowman)

An incredible athlete coming off a disappointing senior campaign, Kindle may get taken off some teams' boards due to his past character issues. Though he played defensive end last year and is considered by many to be a pure 3-4 OLB prospect, Gregg Williams will love adding a guy like Kindle to his defense. Like he did with Marcus Washington back in Washington, Williams will let Kindle play sideline to sideline while also rushing off the edge, adding another weapon to New Orleans' attacking defense.

[mz.]

Good work, as always!!! A couple of notes/questions if I may.

Originally Posted by Alo

1. St. Louis Rams – Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska

Mike Mayock (one of the best in the business) has McCoy ahead of Suh. Any clue as to why?

Originally Posted by Alo

13. San Francisco 49ers – C.J. Spiller RB Oklahoma (Previous Pick: Trent Williams)

Perfect pick for SF. The smart teams draft their next feature back while their current one is still viable (see what PHI did with McCoy/Westbrook...well, Westbrook WAS viable at the time...you know what I mean).

Originally Posted by Alo

24. Philadelphia Eagles –Brandon Graham DE Michigan

A perfect. Wish we could nab him.

Originally Posted by Alo

26. Arizona Cardinals – Jermaine Gresham TE Oklahoma

Same here. Any way you could see him falling into second (injury concerns)? I'd like to see us trade up out of the second into the later part of the first to draft either Graham (can he play OLB in our 3-4???) or Gresham.

Originally Posted by Alo

28. San Diego Chargers – Jon Dwyer RB Georgia Tech (Previous Pick: Dan Williams)

Smart change here IMO, and a very nice complement for Sproles in this offense.

[Alo]

Originally Posted by mz.

Mike Mayock (one of the best in the business) has McCoy ahead of Suh. Any clue as to why?

I think Mayock's got them ranked that way because McCoy could end up being the better pass rusher. Though he's not as strong as Suh, he's more explosive off the ball. And if he gets picked by Tampa, he'll get to play upfield and go after the quarterback on basically every down.

Suh's a more complete player, but McCoy could end up registering double-digit sacks in a Warren Sapp-type role in Tampa. On the other hand, Suh could face constant double teams in St. Louis or Detroit, freeing up teammates to make plays but getting less positive pub.

I fully expect you'll hear people calling Suh a bust when he only notches 5 or 6 sacks his rookie year. The smarter football fans will understand that his contributions won't always show up on the stat sheet, but the average fan might then look back at Mayock's rankings and say, "Hey, this guy called it!"

Originally Posted by mz

Any way you could see [Gresham] falling into second (injury concerns)? I'd like to see us trade up out of the second into the later part of the first to draft either Graham (can he play OLB in our 3-4???) or Gresham.

Gresham's got some character issues to go along with the durability concerns. As a result, people are all over the place projecting his draft position. Daniel Jeremiah @MoveTheSticks thinks he's a top 15 guy, whereas Brent "Sobo" Sobleski of TheOBR is hearing that teams are really concerned about his knee issues.

So it's possible that he'll slide to the 2nd, but you have to wonder whether he'll pass the Browns' character test. My understanding is that they're not going to get any less stringent on character issues; they might even get more strict.

But I love his game: as a receiving target, he's got the potential to be a slightly slower version of Antonio Gates. His blocking needs a lot of work, but he's got the size to become very good at it.

[BernietheKid]

Good stuff Alo! Just some quick points!


"6. Seattle Seahawks – Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame (Previous Pick: Sam Bradford)
Pete Carroll may try to bring in Matt Leinart, but Kurt Warner’s retirement makes that less likely to happen. Instead, Carroll brings in Jimmy Clausen, who's fared pretty well against Carroll's USC squad back in October. If the concerns about Clausen's character reach a fever point, he could fall much lower for this, but I'm betting the Seahawks' desperation for a new franchise quarterback will have them gunning for whichever of the top two guys is available here."

Could you see them draft a LT at 6 or at 14 with W.Jones possibly retiring.

"24. Philadelphia Eagles –Brandon Graham DE Michigan
Graham topped off his solid senior year off by dominating at the Senior Bowl, impressing during practice and winning MVP honors in the actual game. However, the Combine may end up muffling some of his draft mojo. Already measured in at 6'1", 263 lbs. with short 30.5" arms, Graham isn't expected to run a fast 40, which could downgrade his stock. More importantly, he needs to show some ability in linebacker drills; if he doesn't, going to the Eagles here could be his ceiling. But if he does, a whole new world of draft money opens up for him, with the Pats (#22), Niners (#13, #17), and Dolphins (#12) all becoming distinct draft possibilities."

I'm starting to really like him and I wish he would fall to the second round. If we traded down I wouldn't mind taking him either.

[mz.]

Originally Posted by Alo

I fully expect you'll hear people calling Suh a bust when he only notches 5 or 6 sacks his rookie year. The smarter football fans will understand that his contributions won't always show up on the stat sheet, but the average fan might then look back at Mayock's rankings and say, "Hey, this guy called it!"

I kind of always thought that a DT's true value was in the overall performance of his D, not his sack total anyway.

[heckofajobbrownie]

What comes after laying down my pen?

[Solon16]

Great job ALo...I reserve my mock drafts until mid/late march...A whole lot of stuff happens between now and combine, free agency and Draft...always an injury or two as well... side note...where does DA go?...he is due a 2mil roster bonus on march 19th...hmmmm I really do not think we give it to him but who knows!

[Legacy Fan]

Originally Posted by heckofajobbrownie

What comes after laying down my pen?

The Nobel Prize, and a nod from his imaginary friends.

[Alo]

Originally Posted by BernietheKid

"6. Seattle Seahawks – Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame (Previous Pick: Sam Bradford)
Pete Carroll may try to bring in Matt Leinart, but Kurt Warner’s retirement makes that less likely to happen. Instead, Carroll brings in Jimmy Clausen, who's fared pretty well against Carroll's USC squad back in October. If the concerns about Clausen's character reach a fever point, he could fall much lower for this, but I'm betting the Seahawks' desperation for a new franchise quarterback will have them gunning for whichever of the top two guys is available here."

Could you see them draft a LT at 6 or at 14 with W.Jones possibly retiring.

Good point. I think you'll see most mocks giving the Seahawks an offensive tackle with one of their first two picks.

When I add a 2nd round to my mock, I'll probably give them USC OT Charles Brown. Obviously, he's a guy Pete Carroll's familiar with, and his lack of girth (6'5", 292 lbs.) is less of a concern in Alex Gibbs' zone blocking scheme. When Gibbs was in Atlanta, he forced all of his o-linemen to get under 300 lbs., which is part of the reason why I'm not sure that Anthony Davis (6'6", 325 lbs. w/ a history of weight problems) would be a good fit for them in the 1st round.

[Alo]

Originally Posted by heckofajobbrownie

What comes after laying down my pen?

You leaving Shep so we don't have be on the DL any longer?

[Alo]

Originally Posted by Solon16

Great job ALo...I reserve my mock drafts until mid/late march...A whole lot of stuff happens between now and combine, free agency and Draft...always an injury or two as well...

Probably the smarter move on your part. Like you said, so many things change, and starting this soon could lead one to lock in on picks that don't take into account the Combine and pro day workouts.

In fact, that's something I'm going to be monitoring closely this year. I watched a helluva lot more college games this year, and I'm interested to see whether my expanded list of personal preferences leads to me being less accurate with my mock. I may not project those workout warriors high enough because I didn't like what I saw of them in the games.

Anyway, we shall see...

[DaBrowns41]

I still say that as great as Suh is, it doesn't mean that the Rams would be stupid not to take him.

If anything, with their offense being a QB and a stud WR (potentially Avery) away from being a solid one, there's every bit of reasoning for them to go QB, which I know you stated if they don't get Kolb or McNabb it's very possible.

However, every time somebody tells me that the Rams will take the BPA simply because he's one of the best talents to come out in a decade or so, I always revert back to Reggie Bush. Believe it or not, I said the entire off-season that the Texans wouldn't take him, and I was called ignorant, and stupid, blah blah blah, because he was SO amazing, that they couldn't.

Nothing is a guarantee, no matter how great a player can be. I'm going to stick to my guns and say that the Rams go QB. Now if the Rams get Kolb, I'll change my view. If they get McNabb, I'm still saying they'll take a QB to sit behind McNabb a couple seasons.