Offense wins?

[Greythan]

At this stage five of the top 10 offensive teams will make the playoffs.

Six of the top 10 defensive teams will make the playoffs.

New Orleans, Philly, and Green Bay boast top 10 on both sides of the ball.

New England isn't on either list.

Of note, 8 of the top 11 rated QB's are on teams that will make the playoffs. Only 3 of the top 10 leading rushers are on playoff bound teams.

[YtownBacker]

What I take from that the most is that NO, Philly and GB are on both lists. IMO, you have to have balance. NE isn't on the list because the defense struggled at the beginning of the year but has been playing lights out since we beat them.

I don't think it's just about offense or just about defense. It's a team game and you got to be able to get it done on both sides of the ball.

[Greythan]

Maybe the best predictor (and a Mangini favorite) is turnovers:

Of the 12 teams in the top 10 of turnover ratio (three tied for 10th) only 2 aren't on track to be in the playoffs. So, 10 of the 12 leaders in this stat are going to the dance.

Of the top 10 teams taking care of the football (least turnovers) 9 of 11 (2 are tied for 10th) will be playoff bound. Taking care of the ball = winning football.

Forcing turnovers isn't as predictive. Of the 11 in the top 10 (2 tied for 10th) only 6 are going to the playoffs. One team of notice stands out: the Cleveland Browns are tied for 10th in takeaways with 28.

[YtownBacker]

Great stat..................................

Take care of the ball and win the time of possession and you are have a great chance of getting it done. Keep your defense rested and keep the other teams offense off the field.

[Masters]

NE is the number one offense this season with 32pts per game.

Four (possibly 5 if STL get's in) of the top 10 individual rushers are in the playoffs (Charles, Turner, Mendenhall, and Bradshaw).

Six of the top 10 rushing teams will be in the playoffs.

Five of the top 10 passing teams (assumes only GB or Gmen get in) will be in the playoffs.

May end up 7 of the top 10 D's in the playoffs if GB gets in.

[PlaygroundLegend]

Heres when you know you have a good team

If the opposing defense, is adjusting to your offense because they dont know, and are afraid of what your gonna do.

Same thing on D
You know your D is good when the opposing offense adjusts and is afraid of what your going to do


It all comes down to control, who is acting, who is reacting

our team is a good example, our offense is reactive, we dont strike fear into anyone, they dont have to cater to us at all

Our defense at times, is active, but not like the Jets D, which is always active

The Pats, Saints, and Colts, have active offenses

What does being active and reactive boil down to?

Confidence, assering your will on your opponent be it offensively or defensively

[Greythan]

NE is the number one offense this season with 32pts per game.

I'm using yards per game to illustrate the point. New England is 11th.

If you use points per game it goes from 5 to 6 (out of 10) of projected playoff teams. Not a relevant difference.

Four (possibly 5 if STL get's in) of the top 10 individual rushers are in the playoffs (Charles, Turner, Mendenhall, and Bradshaw).

Its 4, but not the way you have it.

Bradshaw is on the outside looking in because the NYG's won't make the playoffs if Philly gets its 11th win tonight and Green Bay wins its last game. (Packers own the tie-breaker.)

I omitted Jackson as STL is currently in the driver's seat for the NFC West.

My error, but again, doesn't change the point that a highly rated QB currently correlates much higher to a playoff berth than a top running back.

Six of the top 10 rushing teams will be in the playoffs.

Four if you go by yards per game vs total rushing yards.

Five of the top 10 passing teams (assumes only GB or Gmen get in) will be in the playoffs.

Its seven. Check your stats and go by team passer rating versus total yards passing.

May end up 7 of the top 10 D's in the playoffs if GB gets in.

8 of the top 11 if you go by points allowed per game. After all, you felt obliged to make this distinction on the other side of the ball.

Sorry for the errors in my data. They were slight. You also had some errors in your "corrections". No big deal.

Now that the data is "better", is there a point you were trying to make?

I think the points I attempted to make were pretty clear:

Primary

• A great offense doesn't hold precedence over a great defense when it comes to playoff berths

Secondary

• A highly rated QB seems to be more valuable than a highly rated RB

Finally, the second post I made regarding turnover ratio and "giveaways" seems to have the strongest correlation to success.

[Masters]

Originally Posted by Greythan

I'm using yards per game to illustrate the point. New England is 11th.

If you use points per game it goes from 5 to 6 (out of 10) of projected playoff teams. Not a relevant difference.

I was going by points, as yards to me don't mean much since they don't win games, points on the score board do.

Originally Posted by Greythan

Its 4, but not the way you have it.

Bradshaw is on the outside looking in because the NYG's won't make the playoffs if Philly gets its 11th win tonight and Green Bay wins its last game. (Packers own the tie-breaker.)

I omitted Jackson as STL is currently in the driver's seat for the NFC West.

My bad. Totally flaked on the Gmen still might not make the playoffs.

Originally Posted by Greythan

My error, but again, doesn't change the point that a highly rated QB currently correlates much higher to a playoff berth than a top running back.

I'd fully agree on this. To me, especially in today's multi back systems run by most teams. I personally don't care for QBR and think in some ways it's an over hyped stat by the media. But yeah, you aren't likely going to be in the playoffs with an inefficent QB, which is what QBR point to.

Originally Posted by Greythan

Four if you go by yards per game vs total rushing yards.

I am used yards per game. To me it tells more about what a team does week in and week out.

Originally Posted by Greythan

Its seven. Check your stats and go by team passer rating versus total yards passing.

I was going by yards per game for teams. QBR is an individuals stat for a QB, not a team stat.

Originally Posted by Greythan

8 of the top 11 if you go by points allowed per game. After all, you felt obliged to make this distinction on the other side of the ball.

I was going by points per game. It will be 8 of the top 11 if GB gets in.

Originally Posted by Greythan

Sorry for the errors in my data. They were slight. You also had some errors in your "corrections". No big deal.

Oh, I wasn't trying to point out errors, outside of the NE, but didn't realize you were going by yards. I was more trying to add to the stats.

Originally Posted by Greythan

Now that the data is "better", is there a point you were trying to make?

I think the points I attempted to make were pretty clear:

Primary

• A great offense doesn't hold precedence over a great defense when it comes to playoff berths

Secondary

• A highly rated QB seems to be more valuable than a highly rated RB

Finally, the second post I made regarding turnover ratio and "giveaways" seems to have the strongest correlation to success.

I full agree with your points. I used to go round and round with Shep about this. Especially when it was regarding it being a passing league in regards to success. A strong running game (as a team, not individual rusher), an solid D, and an efficient QB are all needed to get there.

Your last point is so very true. The give away/take away has the biggest correlation to success.

[Sez.EJ]

I think the point to be taken away from this is... BALANCE.. you gotta have good offense, good defense.. get some takeways.. there will be an exception to the rule to make playoffs from time to time.. but if your in the top 1/2 of the league in O, D, and plus minus turnovers.. your going to win more than you lose. ..now.. how do we get there?

[DaBrowns41]

Here's how you know when your team can win....

When your team can still play in the 4th quarter, which the Browns struggle with.

[Crow]

11 of the 12 teams going to the playoffs this year led the league in win percentage.

The NFC West doesn't count.

[Crow]

But yeah that offense wins thing didn't last very long, did it?