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Originally Posted by Sez.EJ I don't mean to be downer.. but truly saying this in honor of the guys who really "make it" in the nfl.. here is the problem.. every nfl player.even the 3rd string bench warmers DOMINATED in college..so watching videos of these guys destroying opponents is college is fun to watch.. the real question is..does it translate to dominating against the best of the best in the NFL.. Certainly if your dominating in conferences like the SEC certainly gives you more hope for a guy.. but it does not mean that much.. It's such a crapshoot.. Go to draft history.com.. DraftHistory.com - NFL Pro Football College Draft
Pull up any draft year recent but especially going a few years back and start scanning the names.. you will find most of the names... you don't know... or the names you remember are no longer on a roster..very few of the guys who get drafted make it..even the first and 2nd rounders...but especially round 4 and lower..it's truly rare that a guy makes it. It's truly amazing when you look at these lists.. you begin to realize how special a guy has to be to really make it in the NFL. |
EXACTLY! Remember the arguements about Quinn and Clausen coming from pro style offenses? It's not like Military Academies they faced were using Dick LeBeau schemes with the types of talents Pitt's personnel guru gets him. In the future we've taught ourselves to ask "pro style against what?" The red flags we should have seen with Quinn was how overwhelmed he looked every time he faced teams with the most personnel headed to the next level like LSU or Ohio State. Clausen got a lot of junktime stats in games they weren't gonna win; and his winning percentages never impressed me. I thought he improved alot; but that doesn't mean he's NFL starting material.
It seems like alot of ACC stars I've drooled about on film have't lived up to what I thought they'd be from their video highlights whether it's D'Qwell Jackson, Aaron Curry or CJ Spiller. Tampa Bay fans can say we know what you mean - we drafted Gaines Adams to sack QBs without knowing his kryptonite was defending the run. NFL teams will find your weakness and exploit them in game plans. The impact players between Julius Peppers and Lawrence taylor have been too few and far betwen. I don't count Merriman and never did; because I smelled a rat the first time I read his overnight sensation story and he's been as forgettable as Clark Kent ever since his dirty urine perpetuated a lifetime drug test.
I'm not saying EVERY star from the ACC will fail because Matt Ryan and Calvin Johnson had some gotta have features such as accurate and strong arm or ideal height with 4.3 speed and the ability to jump through the roof. Walter Jones from FSU 17-18 years ago has D'Brickashaw Ferguson following in his footsteps at LT. That's kind of few and far between. When the Miami Hurricanes were stockpiling the NFL draft, they were in the Big East as was BC and Va Tech.
I think LEVEL of competition matters in terms of minimizing the level of culture shock at the next level. The NFL doesn't raid the SEC in round 1 by accident. They want to see guys going up for footballs in traffic with the confidence Titus Adams lacked when he played the type of compeition he'll see in the NFL. That's why people need to understand the difference between the highlights of Julio Jones and Titus Adams beating several corners that won't ever be considered for the NFL. In the same token, I think people NEED to see how Robert Quinn played the run vrs Costanzo (NFL caliber). I saw his film vrs Virgina and the tackle he faced moved like each cleat weight 95 pounds apiece. That's all false positive footage as far as I'm concerned.
In the past, our Colt McCoy critics that summarized he couldn't win a punt, pass and kick competition for 10 year olds. MOST of those conclusions required Nebraska game highlights where nobody blocked a man named Suh even once. The impact was an inability to step INTO throws all game. It's a funny at the lengths people will go to validate a point. First, it was a Conference Championship game saying what about the offensive leader? Second, they erased a late deficit to WIN that Championship. Third, why discuss who had one of the best college career winning percentages all time as a QB? Anyone can prove a thesis with careful selection of facts just like any politician can take a percentage of facts to argue his point. The BETTER consumers make it a point to review ALL of the truths.
The thing we forget more than anything is that SOME guys emerge as better Pros than they were in college like Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, Joseph Addai, Peyton Hillis, Brad Johnson, Matt Cassell, Willie Parker and so on... Some of those guys were backups or part timers. There's also unique small school guys that are TOUGH to peg like Andre Reed (Kutztown State), Wayne Chrebet & Marques Colston (Hofstra, which no longer has a football program), Brian Westbrook (Villanova), Leon Lett (Emporia State), Erik Williams(Central State), Pierre Garcon (Mount Union), Al Harris (Texas A&M Kingsville), Charles Haley(James Madison) TO (Chattanooga), Larry Allen (Sonoma State), James Starks (University of Buffalo). There's alot of Pro Bowls there that were pretty tough to predict and there's plenty more guys like this I didn't even mention.
Does anyone recall people talking about WR Mike Wallace predraft? A guy like that goes to somebody that knows how to research deeper than popularity contests. IMO, Savage was never capable of making the laster rounds of a draft count, outside of an occasional exception like Rubin. He was basically a glorified fantasy football guy that fetched Ozzie's coffee and newspapers. I think Heckert brings us competance to this critical role of talent evuations that we've longed for.