Top 2 Points allowed Defenses - Non-factors

[Greythan]

Well Shep will love this one.

It looks like a balanced team with a top tier defense is a pretty good recipe to get to a Super Bowl. Stringing together a bunch of wins (all road wins too) really requires balance as you can't count on any one player to be elite for multiple games.

However, once you get to the Super Bowl its a one game deal (by definition). So, players can rise to the occasion and really shine. And... no position has the highest ceiling for impacting any one game than the QB.

Aaron Rodgers was the key. He was a major part of getting them there, but was the key to winning the actual game.

Let's hope Mr. McCoy has some of that "stuff".

[golfer704u]

Originally Posted by Greythan

Well Shep will love this one.

It looks like a balanced team with a top tier defense is a pretty good recipe to get to a Super Bowl. Stringing together a bunch of wins (all road wins too) really requires balance as you can't count on any one player to be elite for multiple games.

However, once you get to the Super Bowl its a one game deal (by definition). So, players can rise to the occasion and really shine. And... no position has the highest ceiling for impacting any one game than the QB.

Aaron Rodgers was the key. He was a major part of getting them there, but was the key to winning the actual game.

Let's hope Mr. McCoy has some of that "stuff".

Was Aaron Rodgers the key? or was it the Green Bat defense that forced 3 turnovers that Green Bay scored 21 points off of?

I think it was both.

which goes back to the first sentance. It takes a balanced team. with out that int return for a TD, We're now all puking because Ben has another ring.

[jason j]

I would tend to agree with the "balance" theory. The fact that the game finished 31-25 belies just how well those defenses played last night. The Packers' offense was elevated by the 3 turnovers - and the Steelers offense benefited by a couple of ill timed penalties and a few misplays generally by Packer defenders playing out of their regular positions.

What was most interesting to me was watching the "blueprint" for dealing with the Steeler defense. I use the quotes to signify - that while it is a blueprint of sorts, it does the rest of the league very little good to know it. The Steelers' defense was almost flawless Sunday night. But the Packers found a way to beat it that is not likely to be duplicated any time soon.

If you lop the front 7 off of the Pittsburgh D, it is remarkably consistent. A little north of 60% of all passing downs, they play a 3-Deep roam coverage. Basically a single-high safety with the two corners responsible for the deepest receiver in the outside third, and #43 roaming the intermediate zones. They generally get under coverage from two or three front 7 defenders... which two or three is a matter of determining which of the 100 or so blitz combination Monsieur Lebeau has decided to uncork. Now they'll mix this up with a 2-man and a cover 4 look - but the effect is basically the same.

When the offense lines up 2x1 or 3x1 outside the box (meaning 2 or 3 wide receivers to one side), this means the front 7 defender is responsible for "carrying" the inside slot receiver to the free safety. In Steeler world, this means a defender (usually a linebacker) is showing blitz but will peel off and pick up the slot receiver.

The typical methodology for dealing with this has been to run shallow crossers. Cross the face of the retreating backer - in essence make him double back to try to keep up with a much faster receiver. Here's the problem with that. The math. The zone blitz scheme means that often your going to face 6 or 7 man coverages. So a shallow cross may foul up the front side backer to the point he loses him. But that also means that the crossing receiver is blasting down an alley inhabited by some of the violent creatures ever to put on plastic helmets. If he remembers, ask Mohamed Massoquoi what happens if you go zipping across the Steelers' hook zone.

The Packers took a different approach. They simply looked at the defense for what it was. Base cover 3 Roam. Well, when you play against Base Cover 3 Roam, if you can hold the Roam defender to the short (1 receiver) side of the defense, there should be a vertical seam on the opposite side of the defense with a linebacker carrying the slot to the safety. Conversely, if you have the Roamer on the 3 receiver side, you should be able to hit the short handle dig on the back side.

Now, the backside dig (short-handle dig) is a timing throw. You have to wait for the receiver to turn his defender and zip the inside shoulder throw. The difference between that and standard dig route, is this is throw just a few feet from the break in the route. A standard dig route is going to move a good way along the horizontal to the middle of the field. In this case, when the receiver gets to the top of his route, the ball is already about half way there. A soon as he gets his shoulders around, it should be right on top of him. He just has to cross the face of the cover 3 defender. Here's the problem, that has to be thrown on a line, 15-20 yards, outside the numbers. He has to widen the defender and snap off that route to get clean. And that ball has to be humming. If not there's a linebacker sprinting underneath him that is going to get there. About half the quarterbacks in the NFL can make that throw consistently.

Then take a look at the seam route. Defender underneath, safety over. You've got about a 48 inch window moving 17 or 18 miles per hour away from you. You have to get the ball up (over defenders) and down (in front of the free safety), over 18-25 yards with velocity - a bunch of it. The number of quarterbacks that can make that throw consistently? Five? Maybe six? How many can do it with that kind of pressure in their face? Maybe 2... maybe 1.

So, let the world know, someone's finally found a way to beat the Steeler's zone blitz scheme... trouble is Aaron Rodgers isn't your quarterback.... guess it's back to the drawing board.

-jj

[Greythan]

That was sort of my point: Pittsburgh's offense has turned the ball over before, but teams rarely convert them into points, let alone touchdowns. Rodgers was able to torch them without any threat of a running game. (i.e., NO offensive balance whatsoever)

I'm a balance guy. I'm the anti-star QB guy. However, having a QB who can torch the league's best defense on the league's biggest stage is a pretty valuable (and precious) thing. It was the difference maker in my view.

[Brown Warrior]

How do you beat the Steelers defense? You run the ball 10 times all day. McCarthy said he came in with a championship QB and passing game and he was gonne use it. He did. If not for 5 outright drops including a couple that looked ready to go to the house, Rodgers has 400 yards and 4 or 5 TDs. He torched the Steelers even worse than the numbers indicated.

The story of this NFL season was written in the last six weeks, all basically playoff games for the Packers. And the story is about Aaron Rodgers, who put up one of the best playoff runs in history. It is not a story about a defense or a running back... it's a story about Aaron Rodgers. To think otherwise is to not really grasp what happened.

The turnovers mattered, no doubt. The defense mattered. Absolutely. Rodgers didn't operate in a magic quarterback vacuum. But the story of the 2010 season is about Aaron Rodgers, starting with his return to the lineup when the Pack were 8-6 and running through the Super Bowl victory.

It's going to be REALLY hard to move the Packers out of the Super Bowl for the next few years. Ditto for the scrum at the top of the AFC between Pittsburgh and New England, which I expect to pick up a marquee WR like Vincent Jackson. Three teams that can really play some defense, although New England didn't hold up its end so well this year... but also three teams with future Hall of Fame centerpieces at QB.

The hard truth is that the Browns can't play at that elevation until they have a QB putting up QBRs above 95 and ideally over 100, like those three teams. Everything matters but nothing so much as passing offense these days, and the Browns have a LOT of catching up to do.

[Greythan]

I'm largely in agreement Shep, but I think you have to caveat the impact down to the impact of individual games.

So, I don't think anyone doesn't believe that Rivers isn't a gifted QB. Many pundits were talking about him possibly being one of, if not "the", best earlier this year. San Diego didn't make the dance.

Likewise, Jay Cutler isn't being heralded as a great QB but rather referenced as a "potentially" great one. Yet, the Bears were one game from the SB.

So, I still think its balance to get you to the dance. Not overly weighted to "epic" QB'ing. However, to win a single game..... give me the hot QB.

[golfer704u]

Not sure I disagree at all with either you or Shep.

I might disagree with Shep that we may be farther away from being as good as Green Bay, Pittsburgh, or New England on defense than we are at QB. But that all remains to be seen.

We need to improve on both sides of the ball before we even come close to those franchises.

[Brown Warrior]

Originally Posted by golfer704u

Not sure I disagree at all with either you or Shep.

I might disagree with Shep that we may be farther away from being as good as Green Bay, Pittsburgh, or New England on defense than we are at QB. But that all remains to be seen.

We need to improve on both sides of the ball before we even come close to those franchises.

I agree, G. No doubt.

Not sure if Rivers is really a worthwhile example of anything this year because the Chargers were a very freaky occurrence in 2010, a team that was statistically superb on both sides of the ball... yet didn't even make the playoffs. They were epically bad on specials but that doesn't begin to explain how they don't win 10 games anyway.

The Chargers were beginning to feel like the AFC's version of the Packers, the team nobody would want to play... but then they blew it. Tough to figure. They really don't do anything poorly.

Everything matters, especially team defense, however you get it done. But nothing matters as much as the QB and the passing game.

[jason j]

Originally Posted by Brown Warrior

How do you beat the Steelers defense? You run the ball 10 times all day. McCarthy said he came in with a championship QB and passing game and he was gonne use it. He did. If not for 5 outright drops including a couple that looked ready to go to the house, Rodgers has 400 yards and 4 or 5 TDs. He torched the Steelers even worse than the numbers indicated.

The story of this NFL season was written in the last six weeks, all basically playoff games for the Packers. And the story is about Aaron Rodgers, who put up one of the best playoff runs in history. It is not a story about a defense or a running back... it's a story about Aaron Rodgers. To think otherwise is to not really grasp what happened.

The turnovers mattered, no doubt. The defense mattered. Absolutely. Rodgers didn't operate in a magic quarterback vacuum. But the story of the 2010 season is about Aaron Rodgers, starting with his return to the lineup when the Pack were 8-6 and running through the Super Bowl victory.

It's going to be REALLY hard to move the Packers out of the Super Bowl for the next few years. Ditto for the scrum at the top of the AFC between Pittsburgh and New England, which I expect to pick up a marquee WR like Vincent Jackson. Three teams that can really play some defense, although New England didn't hold up its end so well this year... but also three teams with future Hall of Fame centerpieces at QB.

The hard truth is that the Browns can't play at that elevation until they have a QB putting up QBRs above 95 and ideally over 100, like those three teams. Everything matters but nothing so much as passing offense these days, and the Browns have a LOT of catching up to do.

I'm not sure the Pack did any better than the final stats showed. There was a reason that there were 5 outright drops - and it had a lot to do with the Steelers defense. A lot of those balls were thrown at high velocity into some very tight windows in high traffic areas. On at least two occasions, it's unlikely the receiver even saw the ball.

Those are amazing throws into very small spaces that, frankly... aren't all going to get caught. They're just not. It doesn't matter who's out there running routes. Those throws are too fine, too fast, and too crowded. Are they great throws? You bet. Bordering on the ridiculous. But, it's hard to imagine throwing the ball around like that and not having at least a few of them skip off receivers' hands.

As far as moving the Packers out of the Super Bowl. I'd be surprised if they were a threat to repeat. They proved throughout the season, up to and including last night, that they are a little bit old, and a little fragile at some key positions. They may have to go through a little rebuilding here and there... Now that said, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Aaron Rodgers embarked on a Peyton Manning style run of 5 or six seasons with 11-12 wins. I wouldn't be surprised... but I wouldn't bet on it.

*** I also have an answer to what happened to the Chargers (from an earlier post)... Because Phillip Rivers has never had a clutch performance in a big game ever... and I don't think that's likely to change any time soon. The guy is a stat racker. But you amp up the pressure and folds up like a boyscout tent... but that's just my opinion.

-jj

[Brown Warrior]

Wait... you think the Packers are old? They're the second youngest team in the NFL with key young players missing going into the game (Grant, Finley, Barnett). They're going to be better next year... better than the first team to NEVER trail by more than 7 points all season... and that was over 20 games, amazingly.

They're not going to lose any key pieces next year. All that talent returns and some. I see them contending for the next decade with few if any interruptions.

[jason j]

No... I think they're old at some key positions. Driver, Barnett, Woodson, et al. Combined with likely free agent losses in Jenkins, Jones, & Peprah, and they've got the same sorts of challenges that a lot of other teams face.

I like the way they're built... But repeat performances (especially performances o that excellence and precision) are hard to come by.

-jj

[Brown Warrior]

Originally Posted by jason j

No... I think they're old at some key positions. Driver, Barnett, Woodson, et al. Combined with likely free agent losses in Jenkins, Jones, & Peprah, and they've got the same sorts of challenges that a lot of other teams face.

I like the way they're built... But repeat performances (especially performances o that excellence and precision) are hard to come by.

-jj

It's all relative... but I don't think anybody's better set up for the long haul right now than the Packers. Driver and Woodson are the only guys with limited careers ahead, really... and they're still allowed to draft even thought it seems unfair.

They're young and they just won it all missing some really key guys. Nobody's recovering from a serious injury. None of their stars on either side of the ball are leaving.