Off the Edge & Off the Charts???

[Flugel]

As we prep ourselves with collections of mock draft projections for biggest needs, I thought I'd dig since I have the day off here. I'm going to compile a list of the 2010 NFL Sack Leaders and then I'm going to inform you WHERE these guys were drafted. What I want you as the readers to take note of is how many of these guys were actually drafted before selection #10 overall. Take a look:

Name Team Sacks# (Draft slot)
Demarcus Ware Dal 15.5 (1st rd 11th overall )
Tamba Hali KC 14.5 (1st rd 20th overall)
Cameron Wake Mia 14.0 (Undrafted)
Clay Matthews GB 13.5 (1st rd 26th overall - alot of people got fired missing this gem)
John Abraham Atl 13.0 (1st rd 13th overall)
Jason Babin TN 12.5 (1st rd 27th overall )
Charles Johnson Car 11.5 (3rd rd 83rd overall)
Justin Tuck NYG 11.5 (3rd rd 74th overall)
Osi Umenyiora NYC 11.5 (2nd rd 56th overall)
Chris Clemons Sea 11.0 (Undrafted out of Georgia)
Shaun Phillips SD 11.0 (4th rd 98th overall)
Robert Mathis Ind 11.0 (5th rd)
Jared Allen Min 11.0 (4th rd 126th overall)
Terrell Suggs Bal 11.0 (1st rd 10th overall & only guy to make top 10 of draft)
James Hall StL 10.5 (Undrafted)
James Harrison Pit 10.5 (Undrafted)
Dwight Freeney Ind 10.0 (1st rd 11th overall)
Trent Cole Phi 10.0 (5th rd)
LaMarr Woodley Pit 10.0 (2nd rd 46th overall - RAC would like to thank Opie from the bottom of his heart)

I look at a team like the Houston Texans that drafted Mario Williams with the same intentions we once drafted Courtney Brown with at #1 overall. The REASON they went that high was because their franchises thought they would be THE difference. HERE lies the bigger problem which doesn't lie folks. When you go to a team that SUCKS at stopping the run, hard to find your place in the sun chasing passers against opponents that don't have the very 1st reason to throw at you.

There's been alot of glamour, sexy guys coming with sack packed resumes out of college. BUT, some of these Florida State kids that were getting dialed up in seemingly every round 1 off the edge just STUNK when NFL teams found it exciting pounding the football down their throats. We could name them all pre-draft; but we forgot them even easier. I ain't gonna sugarcoat this reality when we're contemplating a #6 overall pick if all someone is good at is embarassing lesser competition with stuff they won't get away with at the next level. The NFL finds weaknesses on film so the 1 trick ponies living as Cinderella never even make it to midnight. Gaines Adams using the olay move off the edge was working wonderfully UNTIL Carolina said let's run right inside that OT getting olayed. Well over 300 yards later, we would see the side of Gaines Adams all future opponents would exploit. Not only that, it fit my concern "if teams can't stop the run why throw on them?" Exploit the favorables I say.

If Green and Fairley are both gone at #6 overall, I would not mind trading down for more picks in rounds alot of these pass rushing edge guys have been found more frequently. If Benard didn't have health issues the last 5 or 6 weeks, he projected about 10 to 11 sacks which makes that list above folks. In trading down, we could get Julio Jones or Heckert's version of the best WR available later in round 1. The round 2 WR thing is a heebeegeebee dejavue dating back as far as Lawyer Tillman. They all look to make sense at the time; but we haven't had the eyes for talent to snag the Wallaces, Sanders, Colstons after round one prior to Heckert.

[Brown Warrior]

Good stuff, Tom. "Pass rusher" is always identified as a top-of-the-draft premium position, but clearly you demonstrated that the come from all over the place.

BTW, more WRs have been chosen in round one than any other position (40) in the past 10 drafts.

[Flugel]

Originally Posted by Brown Warrior

Good stuff, Tom. "Pass rusher" is always identified as a top-of-the-draft premium position, but clearly you demonstrated that the come from all over the place.

BTW, more WRs have been chosen in round one than any other position (40) in the past 10 drafts.

Thanks Shep! Here's another thing regarding some of the undrafted guys vrs many of the first round draft disappointments we may be forgetting about. There's going to players in the pros that are better than they were in college like the following examples:
Willie Parker was a backup RB at North Carolina
Brad Johnson was Danny Kanell's backup QB at Florida State
Cameron Wake might not have started at Penn State but played in rotation
Joseph Addai didn't have the most carries on his LSU team
Tom Brady wasn't even the most popular QB on his college team (Drew Henson was)
Dan Marino might have had the most disappointing senior year of anyone before leading the Dolphins to SB Sunday as a rookie.

My favorite story, sorry for the redundancy, was when Clay Matthews was asked before GB's final night game this year, why did you NEED to walk-on at USC. His replay was I didn't even start in high school. And as the commentator's jaws were dribbling off the floor, they asked in my paraphrase way from politically correct way: "Who was idiot?" Clay III had an ear to ear grin reply: "My dad." And before the commentators could break shock with a comment - he added some reality. He said he wasn't mean enough and he was about 5" inches shorter on the delayed growth spurt. Clay Matthews really didn't round into an unstoppable force until his final year at USC even if there might have been some hints the year before.

The point of all this is we want the guys that are still improving instead of the ones where the best football has already been played. Outside pass rushers seem to be the highest volume of round 1 failures so I'd rather us use our first pick elsewhere. That's pretty chickenshit of me but let's face it - we've done the edge pass rusher thing twice in round one. And guys like Mario Williams and Gaines Adams never took their defenses to the next level.

[YtownBacker]

Tom you made some great points. Too many times people get locked into round #1 being the only round you can find an impact player. They are all over, in every round of the draft. You just have to have the guys who have can evaluate and are willing to put in the work to find them.

Last year when we took Ward most everybody here was saying Who? and WTF? and Look who they passed over.

[Brown Warrior]

So McShay says Dareus. I'd much rather have Robert Quinn between the two. I have a gut on Shaefering at DT. Sobo says he has the quickest first step of our DT types and could even play some end. He could be plenty disruptive next to Rubin.

Give me the pass rusher, baby... if we're going defense.

Cleveland Browns will take Alabama tackle Marcel Dareus -- ESPN's Todd McShay | cleveland.com

[PlaygroundLegend]

I was about to bring up Brian Orakpo, but then I remembered he was drafted 13th... he shoulda been our pick damnit

[Flugel]

Originally Posted by PlaygroundLegend

I was about to bring up Brian Orakpo, but then I remembered he was drafted 13th... he shoulda been our pick damnit

Orakpo had 8.5 sacks starting in 15 games while the undrafted Benard finished with 7.5 sacks (while only starting 2 of the 15 games he appeared in). That's way too equivalent for a 13th overall pick to be neck and neck with an undrafted, part time rotation guy IMO.

That's exactly my point, why reach that high for a guy that's only gonna get you 8.5 sacks in his 2nd season? Let's understand how FAR ahead of Clay Matthews he went to fully understand there were better picks at his respective position and countless other best players available that were out there. I had Orakpophobia pre-draft.

I think I'm almost unfair to every every pass rusher projected for upper round 1 these days; because MOST of them end suck against the run. This will KILL us at pick #6 if that holds true 1 more time. As I said earlier in this thread, when we're this bad against the run - who's gonna find that very first reason to throw at us? If New Orleans and NE had it to do over again, they wouldn't have wasted time throwing the ball. Then again, we had Fujita QBing our defense to better performance and productivity so they might have had to.

Let's face it - the 300 pound Reggie White's running 4.6s and bench pressing Ford Rangers aren't coming out of every draft so everyone holds out hope they're getting the next Bruce Smith. Courtney Brown seemingly had everything Bruce had except there was a surprising warning label we couldn't read until too late. It read: Agile but fragile - made in China, played in Cleveland, laid in hospitals.

Believe it or not, Wimbley got the stock up thing at the workouts/Indy Combines they would never fully grant Clay Matthews for upper round one status. Clay is the guy that is much better and more instinctive at playing the run while Wimbley has looked as lost as a rodent crossing the highway at night. Anyone ever wonder if all these guys determining stockup and stockdown when football stops being played actually know the difference between a Clay Matthews and a Kam Wimbley? For that matter, some NFL personnel guys couldn't tell who was better for a 3-4 defense between D'Qwell Jackson and LaMarr Woodley. Here we are unsatisfied with pressure off the edge. Then again, if we can't stop the run - what pressure?

I think that sack leaders chart should remind us that former Pro Bowl guys like Michael Strahan and Aaron Schobel are still coming from later rounds. That enables us to get a pick of that litter that can be a scoreboard changer we've longed for.

I don't think it's possible to be surprised by any pick we make. It may not fall into the mock draft consensus projections. And if you think that sucks - just keep thinking how epic selections like Clay Matthews and Ray Lewis were at pick #26. BTW, Arian Foster wasn't considered stockup material and look how he turned out.

[PlaygroundLegend]

Orakpo had 11 sacks last year in a 4-3, this year he was in a 3-4, he had a different job

[Flugel]

Originally Posted by PlaygroundLegend

Orakpo had 11 sacks last year in a 4-3, this year he was in a 3-4, he had a different job

Like I said, he equated to the undrafted Marcus Benard in 2010 so which guy looks overrated at #13 overall?

[Flugel]

Originally Posted by Flugel

Name Team Sacks# (Draft slot)
Demarcus Ware Dal 15.5 (1st rd 11th overall )
Tamba Hali KC 14.5 (1st rd 20th overall)
Cameron Wake Mia 14.0 (Undrafted)
Clay Matthews GB 13.5 (1st rd 26th overall - alot of people got fired missing this gem)
John Abraham Atl 13.0 (1st rd 13th overall)
Jason Babin TN 12.5 (1st rd 27th overall )
Charles Johnson Car 11.5 (3rd rd 83rd overall)
Justin Tuck NYG 11.5 (3rd rd 74th overall)
Osi Umenyiora NYC 11.5 (2nd rd 56th overall)
Chris Clemons Sea 11.0 (Undrafted out of Georgia)
Shaun Phillips SD 11.0 (4th rd 98th overall)
Robert Mathis Ind 11.0 (5th rd)
Jared Allen Min 11.0 (4th rd 126th overall)
Terrell Suggs Bal 11.0 (1st rd 10th overall & only guy to make top 10 of draft)
James Hall StL 10.5 (Undrafted)
James Harrison Pit 10.5 (Undrafted)
Dwight Freeney Ind 10.0 (1st rd 11th overall)
Trent Cole Phi 10.0 (5th rd)
LaMarr Woodley Pit 10.0 (2nd rd 46th overall - RAC would like to thank Opie from the bottom of his heart)

As we look at the list of leading sackers in 2010, how many of those guys helped their team win 1 playoff game?

Ware? No
Hali? No
Wake? No
Abraham? No
Babin? No
Johnson? No
Tuck? No
Umenyiora? No
Phillips? No
Allen? No
Hall? No
Mathis? No
Freeney? No
Clemons? 1 win
Suggs? 1 win
Harrison? 2 wins
Woodley? 2 wins
Matthews? 4 wins

We could have drafted ANY of the last 5 guys as we head back to the drawing board of looking for Mr Right off the edge. There were alot of well paid experts convicting Clay Matthews of only being capable of part time duty while a guy like Brian Orakpo represented Mr Gotta Have. Turns out there couldn't be a more complete football player attacking run or pass than Clay Matthews. The 1 guy everyone on the planet said upper round 1 was too high was a Defensive MVP runner-up. Green Bay got their best 2 players at pick #24 and #26.

Understanding we've switched schemes because we couldn't properly identify studs like Woodley and Matthews, we can't LOSE sight of the complete player on the edge this time around if he's on our door step. If one skill (pass rusher) comes at the expense of the other (run stoppage/outside contain) - I hope the research is thorough enough for comfort behind the decision to be made. Gotta be smart here.

[Brown Warrior]

Osi and Freeney have helped their teams win championships in the very recent past. Abraham has been a big part of a fast-rising Falcon team while Hali helped turn around the Chiefs.

QB pressure is a good thing. The best two in the NFL last year? Packers and Steelers.

[Flugel]

Originally Posted by Brown Warrior

Osi and Freeney have helped their teams win championships in the very recent past. Abraham has been a big part of a fast-rising Falcon team while Hali helped turn around the Chiefs.

QB pressure is a good thing. The best two in the NFL last year? Packers and Steelers.

QB pressure is a wonderful thing; but there's another 50% to playing defense in the form of stopping the run. When you get behind like the Browns have been prone to doing, I don't understand where you think everybody will want to throw on them to extend clock. That would be silly bordering on absurd game planning Shep.

Tuck, Strahan and Osi weren't top 10 draft picks so I appreciate the reminder. Which guy was even drafted in round 1? Abraham didn't beat a wild card opponent because a QB with a quick release meant what to his skillset?

As for Freeney off the edge, I've been witnesing his play since I lived in upstate NY. I know all about him. There isn't an NFL team that suffered more surprising playoff disappointment than the Indy Colts for seemingly the first 10 years of qualifying for post season with high expectation. Researching why uncovers they never COULD play with a lead in the post season. Meaning? Time to stout up and stop the run in those chilly NE temperatures BEFORE Bob Sanders arrived to put a spinal colum in the run support there. I know all about it. I think Indy is still hit or miss vrs the run. You could say the biggest thing seperating that team from a dynasty was their ability to defend the run. Too bad considering all the talent they had on offense.