The Career Span of Outside Pass Rushers

[Flugel]

As we embark upon the fringes of the 2011 NFL Draft, we realize the depth of our dline is Ethiopian thin staring down an all you can eat buffett of Dlinemen. That being the case, my reservations are made under Flugel - party of 1 appetite of 7. Here's a thing that concerns me on a team that absolutely CANNOT afford to swing for the fence at #6 and miss so bad we continue to disable our capability in the AFC North. This investment needs to pack upside and have a shelf life longer than 3 years. It's high time we're done accepting and rationalizing far less.

I did a little more digging on the trends and one of the things I found was that even some of the more successful 1st round guys drafted to provide the pass rush off the edge had a very short window of playing to 1st round expectations and effect. Best example might be Jevon Kearse. Here's a guy that made a position change from a college ILBer to a 4-3 DE in TN. Consequently, you'd think there would be a learning curve that says upside to follow. However, his career began with instant sensation and made its way toward dime a dozen pretty quickly. He arrived in 99 with 14.5 sacks (terrific), then it dropped to 11.5 (still impressive), then it dropped to 10 (still good but countless guys after round 1 can do this), then it went "land ho" to 2 sacks before it produced the 9.5 you'd expect from rounds 3-7 guys, before it went to a ho-hum 7.5 for 2 consecutive years. The next 3 years on very generous free agent coin, he produced the same 3.5 sacks per season somebody Roseann Barr could generate on menstrual cycles alone. After a DWI, he contributed 1 sack in 2010.

While that shows somewhat of a long career, it sure seemed like this HUNGRY rookie forgot about the part that made him rich ultrafast. I've always said there's something really warm and fuzzy about the types that come into the league hellbent on PROVING themselves (see countless examples provided at the bottome of the page). While film was showing many teams how to handle Kearse, he was helping out with seemingly lost interest coupled with wear and tear effect. I guess one could argue 3 good years was sufficient when compared to many other first round pass rushers like Gaines Adams, Courtney Brown and Mike Mamula. Then again, do we want a guy that never plays better than his rookie year rushing the passer or do we send him off to Oakland because we have a more impressive guy that was undrafted (Benard) putting a hand down?

And what planet did Shawn Merriman land on now that he has to provide clean urine? Oh yaaa, he went to Buffalo because their #11 overall pick Aaron Maybin was so impressive there that they're hoping the 2 guys can equate to 1 player. If it sounds too good to be true you better take 2 and good luck with that. There's been alot of these upper first round edge pass rushers looking like that delicious apple in the Garden of Eden with a beware your decision warning in tiny print. We've swung from our ass and missed twice with pass rushers as that snake with the apple sank its venomous teeth into the lifeline of our AFC North survival to date. Believe me when I tell you that snakebitten is an understatement here.

THAT is why I REALLY enjoyed Heckert reminding people about Trent Cole epitomizing what he wants in this draft. He's got the prototypicals and relentless motor that is ALWAYS being found after the upper half of round 1. Keep in mind, everybody once looked down their noses at Clay Matthews as an upper round value in the spot we were scheduled to draft in. Personally, we could have done worse than adding a Pro Bowl Center on the tradedown to add to the 4 draft picks Phil Savage sentenced us to.

There's been so many pass rushers that showed up strong early only to disappear. Remember when Chicago's Marc Anderson out of Alabama looked like a steal with double digit sacks as a rookie? He fell off the planet; but only at the expense of a 4th round pick so Chicago didn't feel the sting as much as they would have if he was a 1st round commitment.

We simply should NOT forget a guy like Cameron Wake with 14 sacks in 2010 was UNDRAFTED. And look where these guys came from:
Charles Johnson Car 11.5 (3rd rd 83rd overall)
Justin Tuck NYG 11.5 (3rd rd 74th overall)
Osi Umenyiora NYC 11.5 (2nd rd 56th overall)
Chris Clemons Sea 11.0 (Undrafted out of Georgia)
Shaun Phillips SD 11.0 (4th rd 98th overall)
Robert Mathis Ind 11.0 (5th rd)
Jared Allen Min 11.0 (4th rd 126th overall)
James Hall StL 10.5 (Undrafted)
James Harrison Pit 10.5 (Undrafted)
Trent Cole Phi 10.0 (5th rd)
LaMarr Woodley Pit 10.0 (2nd rd 46th overall)

[Sez.EJ]

Good stuff Flugs... I do like the depth on the DL in this draft so it's not the end of the world if we don't go DL in round 1.. I think we MUST get somone in the top 3 picks..but part of me thinks we may back that up by loading up on a couple late round guys too.

[Sez.EJ]

Pashos makes me nervous too (even when healthy). I think keeping Pokechop is a must have guy, due to his versatility.

[Brown Warrior]

'Chop is important this year when we have so many other needs. He and Yates are vital to holding the fort on the right side, assuming Lauvao and Pashos start. I see us going WR, DL, and LB in the first three rounds in some order.

[Flugel]

Originally Posted by Brown Warrior

'Chop is important this year when we have so many other needs. He and Yates are vital to holding the fort on the right side, assuming Lauvao and Pashos start. I see us going WR, DL, and LB in the first three rounds in some order.

Pre-injury, Yates was coming off the best game of his life against one of the strongest opponents (NE); and Brian Baldinger actually made our oline the focal point of his video presentation showcasing what he coined "the Smashing Pumpkins." He actually isolated Yates drive blocking a NE LBer for 13 as if the guy was a defenseless blocking sled. If we get Yates back to that form, we're pretty good on the right side. Pork Chop was doing fine in backup tackle mode. The shit didn't hit the fan until we got to #3 St Clair on the depth chart in 2010. In fact, Yates was the RG and Pork Chop was the RT vrs NE when we overwhelmed them.

If we pick up a pick somewhere via trade, we'll prolly address a RT to groom in a mid-late round I believe. A Paul Farren type that a GOOD personnel evaluator can spot.

[Solon16]

You ought to be in politics Tom.
Without even mentioning a certain somebody you've made a case by only listing 1st round busts when referencing 4-3 DE's. I love your technique in the not so transparent correlation to my favorite guy in the draft. Good stuff, you'd be great as a writer of poll questions for rush limbaugh :P. That said, you may find bodies to plug in at 4-3 end in later rounds of the draft and they may be adequate...It is high time we had a real stud on D. I think there is a Tarheel that can be a Stud on D! I'd take fairley,petersen or green but I want a world class DE 1st.

[Flugel]

Originally Posted by Solon16

You ought to be in politics Tom.
Without even mentioning a certain somebody you've made a case by only listing 1st round busts when referencing 4-3 DE's. I love your technique in the not so transparent correlation to my favorite guy in the draft. Good stuff, you'd be great as a writer of poll questions for rush limbaugh :P. That said, you may find bodies to plug in at 4-3 end in later rounds of the draft and they may be adequate...It is high time we had a real stud on D. I think there is a Tarheel that can be a Stud on D! I'd take fairley,petersen or green but I want a world class DE 1st.

LOL! Believe it or not, I understand you adore the idea of landing the next Julius peppers here that shuts down everything inclusive of the running game while amassing double digit sacks seemingly every year. I STILL remember the Tucker vrs Peppers matchup in 02 that ALMOST closed down our playoff chances and the repeat of the mismatch again in 2006.

I love the IDEA too. But I think it's important we understand trends or we could spent the next 10 drafting 1st round DEs while we're looking at guys that turned out more successful later. Remember when we drafted Wimbley in round 1 when we actually could have had Woodley in round 2? I understand those were 3-4 guys BUT they were the ddesignated pass rusher types for that scheme. Here's the thing, does Pittsburgh say this year we're only going to have Woodley be the sack master or do they have an undrafted All Pro on the other side that's just as good as Woodley at getting to the QB? Understanding where such excellent players were found as easily as they were found frioom good eyes for talent - a Trent Cole equivalent certainly seems to be found in alot of recent drafts.

Try this on for size, WHO was considering Cameron Wake nearly as gotta have-level as Aaron Maybin from the same college? Wake had 14 sacks in 2010 and I believe he was undrafted while Maybin was an 11th overall pick in 2009. Meanwhile considerations of Clay Matthews in upper round 1 drew responses like "talented guy but a big reach for a guy that's not a 3 down defender in the NFL." Exact science? There isn't a position in need of a more exact science than pass rusher (regardless of the 3-4 version or 4-3 version); BECAUSE there needs to be an understanding that the pass rush skill cannot come at the expense of defending the run/point of attack. That's why your Julius Peppers and Clay Matthews types succeed where others couldn't because they're both impressive run defenders as well. Seems to me, we're really underrating what rounds 2 through undrafted produces every draft especially with Heckert telling us this is a very deep draft at dline and DE. Seems like a perfect opportunity to land a playmaker that seems less risky at #6 overall.

When it's all said and done - I'm happy to say I trust Heckert's eye for NFL talent and the research I think he always puts into well informed decisions.

[Brown Warrior]

I guess we should just go get the next Cameron Wake in round 5-ish? I think you just have to want it really bad (!). I mean, why spend a high draft pick on anything when you can get Tom Brady in six, etc.?

We're gonna save so much money.

[Alo]

Check out their rookie sack totals:

Originally Posted by Flugel

And look where these guys came from:

Charles Johnson Car 11.5 (3rd rd 83rd overall) 0 sacks
Justin Tuck NYG 11.5 (3rd rd 74th overall) 1 sack
Osi Umenyiora NYC 11.5 (2nd rd 56th overall) 1 sack
Chris Clemons Sea 11.0 (Undrafted out of Georgia) IR after ACL tear
Shaun Phillips SD 11.0 (4th rd 98th overall) 4 sacks
Robert Mathis Ind 11.0 (5th rd) 3.5 sacks
Jared Allen Min 11.0 (4th rd 126th overall) 9 sacks
James Hall StL 10.5 (Undrafted) 1 sack
James Harrison Pit 10.5 (Undrafted) Practice squads & such
Trent Cole Phi 10.0 (5th rd) 5 sacks
LaMarr Woodley Pit 10.0 (2nd rd 46th overall) 4 sacks

It's clear that you can develop a pass rusher if you've got a good d-line coach and a system that fits his talents -- look at how Chris Clemons became a double-digit sack guy when he got to play in Seattle's hybrid D.

However, these guys are mid/late rounders for a reason: they're either raw from a technique standpoint or need to develop physically.

You're more likely to get production right away from a 1st/2nd round guy, both because they're usually more physically gifted and -- in most cases -- because they produced on the college level.

You can see two examples of that in the 2009 class: Brian Orakpo was a big-time sack artist in college and notched double-digit sacks his rookie season. Clay Matthews wasn't very productive at USC, but his freakish 1st round athleticism helped him get ten sacks as a rookie.

So while it's a very good idea for the Browns to develop a mid-round defensive end who potentially could start down the road, you're only going to get the NFL-ready elite talent in the 1st and -- if you're extremely lucky -- 2nd or 3rd round.

[Flugel]

Originally Posted by Alo

Check out their rookie sack totals:


It's clear that you can develop a pass rusher if you've got a good d-line coach and a system that fits his talents -- look at how Chris Clemons became a double-digit sack guy when he got to play in Seattle's hybrid D.

However, these guys are mid/late rounders for a reason: they're either raw from a technique standpoint or need to develop physically.

You're more likely to get production right away from a 1st/2nd round guy, both because they're usually more physically gifted and -- in most cases -- because they produced on the college level.

You can see two examples of that in the 2009 class: Brian Orakpo was a big-time sack artist in college and notched double-digit sacks his rookie season. Clay Matthews wasn't very productive at USC, but his freakish 1st round athleticism helped him get ten sacks as a rookie.

So while it's a very good idea for the Browns to develop a mid-round defensive end who potentially could start down the road, you're only going to get the NFL-ready elite talent in the 1st and -- if you're extremely lucky -- 2nd or 3rd round.

You make some good points but there isn't a position in UPPER round one that has gone wrong more frequently than DE/pass rusher. If that applies to us this year, it's going to be at the expense of a VERY talented football player we miss out on at #6 overall. In round 1, you don't want a guy that's gonna have his highest sack volume as a rookie only to get progressively worse every year thereafter like so many have done.

The RIGHT eye for talent can get an Aaron Schobel out of TCU in round 2 or a LaMarr Woodley in round 2 or Trent Cole in round 5 or Elvis Dumerville in round 4. What these guys come with that alot of first round kids often lose within 1-2 years is a buring passion to PROVE they belong in this league so they continue to push themselves toward improvement rather than contentment. Hopefully the new rookie salary structure would change this some.

There's recent first round guys like Aaron Maybin that has 0 sacks in his first 26 NFL games as an 11th overall pick for Buffalo. And then there's Brandon Graham with 3 sacks in 2010 that Philly traded away 2 third round picks and the first round slot to Denver over. Shep reminded me that Chris Long's 14 sacks and 19 tackles for a loss as a senior in the ACC makes him extremely disappointing as a #2 overall pick only averaging 6 sacks a year in the first 3 years. I'm very confident we can get 6 sacks a year anywhere from round 2 through undrafted and not waste our pick of the litter opportunity.

Elvis Dumerville was a 4th round pick nobody anticpiated a capability of 8.5 sacks as a rookie, 12 sacks in his 2nd year and 17 sacks in his 4th year. I'd prefer a guy that gets better with every season like that over than a guy that's gonna have his career best season as a rookie like Wimbley and Orakpo looked to have before dropping below the double digit sack volume as #13 overall picks. When we're preferring an undrafted Marcus Benard to Wimbley after we once preferred Jamir Miller to Courtney Brown on the edge - it's REALLY tough to get me excited to go right back to that pass rusher position again. When I say such a thing, I'm talking about a 1 year body of work from Quinn where there wasn't an opportunity to improve some parts of his game that needed work. You looked at enough film to know he needs to change his tackling habits especially when he's dealing with NFL ballcarriers.

I gotta believe we can do WR at #6 and DE in upper round 2. Another option is to trade down and do DE in round one and WR in upper round 2. The problem with that trade-down is I think there's a BIGGER dropoff in WR talent AFTER Julio than the drop off in DE talent. I'm looking at supply and demand of some possible difference makers for both positions. We might even choose the DT earlier than the DE.

[Brown Warrior]

Tom, we agree completely. I think a big-time #1 WR will do more for the Browns 2011 season than a defensive lineman. I think he'll aid McCoy's development greatly and open up the field for guys like Hillis, Hardesty, Watson, Moore, Robiskie, and Massoquoi. As complementary players going against #2 and #3 corners, Robiskie and Massoquoi will suddenly look better.

I think there are two #1 WRs in this draft, Green and Jones. I'm a little unsure of Baldwin's ability to work the short, quick stuff in the WCO and I don't get a #1 vibe off of Torrey Smith. I like Hankerson and Young and they would help... but neither is Green or Jones.

I think Sheard or Justin Houston in two would be less of a dropoff. Or a trade up for Kerrigan.

[Jax Dawg]

Last year I was begging the Browns to address the worst secondary in the NFL and Heckert did early and often with Haden and Ward. This area still needs help and may get it if Peterson from LSU slips to #6.

This year I am hoping for WR help although everyone (Heckert, Homgren, et al) are saying again they like our WR's. I've been a big Julio Jones fan for a while - think Cincy picks Green at #4 and wouldn't mind at all Jones at #6 even though many so that is too high.

Not too enamored with the big name d-linemen out there - keep on having flashbacks to "Big money", little effort Warren and the always broken beast Brown - both top 3 picks for the Browns and both major disappointments.