Multiple Choice at Pick 6

[Solon16]

Originally Posted by handbanana

If you look deeper into the current labor situation the nfl finds itself embroiled in you will come to the realization that the league will emerge a different beast than we had previously known. One such change that I believe will occur, among others, is an even tougher stance on helmet to helmet and high risk collisions. If you need evidence of this just google 'nfl' and 'concussion' and tell me they won't be cracking down even harder this next season. I believe this change could lead to a fundamental shift in how football is played, basically taking us one giant step closer to that most dreaded of outcomes, flag football.

Although I am dreading this, I see it as an almost inevitable progression. Flag football means forward pass football, plain and simple. This writing has been on the wall for quite some time and should surprise noone.

I for one am sick and tired of the browns playing a brand of football that is completely draconian in nature. The browns are clearly taking a look at the same tea leaves as myself as evidenced by the firing of mangini, hiring of shurmur, public declaration of new offensive philosophy, etc. The natural progression of these events can only lead to one conclusion being drawn, if AJ Green, the best wide receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson including Michael Crabtree and Dez Bryant, is available we will take him.

Some good merits, but I disagree on the Calvin johnson comparison.

One thing is true...If the new CBA has a rookie pay scale then GM's might be less worried about paying tens of millions to a player who at best touches the ball only ten times a game.

[Flugel]

Originally Posted by Solon16

Here try again:

reasons why i hate #6 overall on wr and why I do not think we will draft one. History...
1).Heckert comes from Phily steeped in history in drafting lineman giving McNabb nothing for years. Westbrook a 3rd rounder reggie Brown was closest thing to a weapon for Mcnabb (2nd round)...
2). Free agent class is best we've seen at Wr IN YEARS.
3).Switching to a 4-3 Defense with 1 known starter on the D-line. To make a 4-3 work you need a dominant DT and DE, we have neither and this class @#6 will have one available to us.
4).Rookie Wr's are not impactful 95% of the time.
5). Looking at the offense in St.Louis...they certainly had no wr's worth note or anywhere near top 2 round guys. and performed well last year.
6) Shurmer has already stated O-line and dline are most important units on the field.
7). We most likely not ever find a talent like Fairley,Dareus or Quinn in later rounds.
8). We have nobody worth a damn to get after opponents QB.

Solon,
I read and LIKED many of your points; but we're not Philly. You once made it a point to try to set me straight about early impacts from rookie WRs so what's up with the big 360 today? Philly reached in upper round 1 for a 1 year wonder Brodrick Bunkley, who's been okay but nothing like his 44 reps and killer workout assured following 1 terrific season at FSU. Point? Look how many different defensive guys are sporting 1 great season and a nice combine that are projecting upper round 1 just like Bunkley. As it played out, Bunkley has played more like a 5th round draft pick while Trent Cole has played more like a 1st round draft pick from the 5th round. I'm certain Heckert is well aware of this.

While I LIKE your ambition - show me 1 season when we've snagged this free agent WR thinking "I want me some Cleveland" that's come here to be an X-factor and its happened. Until I see otherwise, I categorize this dream/hope with the boy who cried wolf. That's a 12th of Never holiday we celebrate every year my man.

We're talking about 6th pick overall with the understanding of how deep the dline is in this draft while the supply of difference maker WR types is thin. BTW, when the Steelers already HAD Holmes employed, they could draft a WR like Wallace later because it wasn't an urgent fix. Indy could do the same when they already Reggie Wayne occupying a #1 WR spot. I USED to be open to round 2 at WR here before I got slapped upside the head with Lawyer Tillman, Dennis Northcutt, Andre Davis, Quincy Morgan, Brian Robiskie and MoMass. Who ever became a #1 guy in that group? Consequently, I don't understand a solution that says look to the 2nd round again for WR hopes when there's seemingly a bigger dropoff in capability of immediacy for a big playmaker. IMO, the SEC competition factor will have a Green or Jones more ready to compete right away than a Titus Young, Jon Baldwin and even Hankerson(whom I like). Julio had a nice game vrs the best corner/player in the draft right? He's well aware of what he'll see on Sundays.

I'm gonna repost the 2010 sack leaders along with where they were drafted. I'll give you my house, my car and my annual salary if you can find 1 guy that was drafted at or before pick #6 overall or you can spot any of the following names on the list below: Brandon Graham, Derrick Morgan, Aaron Maybin, Courtney Brown, Eric Flowers or Chris Long. Aside from that, MOST of the guys on the list came after pick #10 if they were drafted at all meaning what about finding pass rushers today?

Name Team Sacks# (Draft slot)
Demarcus Ware Dal 15.5 (1st rd 11th overall)
Tamba Hali KC 14.5 (1st rd 20th overall - first time he's looked the part right?)
Cameron Wake Mia 14.0 (Undrafted)
Clay Matthews GB 13.5 (1st rd 26th overall - got the least predraft upper rd 1 love)
John Abraham Atl 13.0 (1st rd 13th overall)
Jason Babin TN 12.5 (1st rd 27th overall )
Charles Johnson Car 11.5 (3rd rd 83rd overall)
Justin Tuck NYG 11.5 (3rd rd 74th overall)
Osi Umenyiora NYC 11.5 (2nd rd 56th overall)
Chris Clemons Sea 11.0 (Undrafted out of Georgia)
Shaun Phillips SD 11.0 (4th rd 98th overall)
Robert Mathis Ind 11.0 (5th rd)
Jared Allen Min 11.0 (4th rd 126th overall)
Terrell Suggs Bal 11.0 (1st rd 10th overall & only guy to make top 10 of draft)
James Hall StL 10.5 (Undrafted)
James Harrison Pit 10.5 (Undrafted)
Dwight Freeney Ind 10.0 (1st rd 11th overall)
Trent Cole Phi 10.0 (5th rd)
LaMarr Woodley Pit 10.0 (2nd rd 46th overall)

I wouldn't be surprised about the OT thing especially in a trade-down to add early picks so I put Carimi in there for shits and giggles. Just remember back in the day, when Jimmy Johnson had an UNDRAFTED Charles Haley and Leon Lett from Emporia State outperforming the higher draft picks like Russell Maryland and Danny Noonan exchange value wise. Dline is the 1 area you don't have to reach for especially in this draft IMO. Wasn't Benard out performing Wimbley off the edge in practice and on game day here? Which guy was the reach and what guy didn't need to be drafted? That's my point about not reaching with pick #6. Then there was Courtney Brown drafted #1 overall only to see Jamir Miller putting a hand in the dirt for the first time in his career providing the pass rush we had always hoped Courtney would bring. Again, we reached our ass off for a designated pass rusher where we had to always rely on someone else to do it better with far less training for the position I might add.

I close in saying as long as that post was - examples backing points were necessary. Above all, this ain't Savage drafting so we can look forward to 6 more selections after round 1 that are going to be well informed decisions. On top of that, we just might see what its like to ADD picks to a draft for a refreshing change from a competant guy like Heckert. We'll address the dline - you can count on it!

[Enigmatic Evil]

WHOEVER we take, I don't care if he's a sure thing or not. I want to see a player taken for a position of need, thankfully for us we have a lot of those this season and I want that player to be able to step in and contribute. I trust the brass will make that decision and if it's a D-Front 7 guy, a CB, a WR, hell a OL. I don't care, if they can start, and establish themselves on the team that is what I want to see.

[Brown Warrior]

Thank you. I agree. Jim was trying to make the point that because of Heckert's draft history, we'll focus on having lower rated, less talented skill players and spend all our top picks on the lines, dooming us to decades of shittiness.

I actually agree with you: Holmgren and Heckert aren't zombies. They don't repeat the same cycle over and over and over. They look at the situation and determine what's best. I like both guys a lot. I think they're smart.

But if you really wanna look at Heckert's draft history... or Holmgren's... you happen to see a lot of WRs and skill players high up. Holmgren traded a first round pick for a hard-drinking rookie in Atlanta in addition to spending two first round picks on WRs. Heckert has been drafting mostly skill players and speed the past four years.

Originally Posted by Sez.EJ

First of all Hecker was not the sole guy running the drafts in Philli. He was only in a GM spot sinc 2006.. The Eagles have been a contender for a decade/ Hecker was more of an underling for most of the past decade with Philli and Andy Reid had a lot of power in who got drafted.

Comparing the drafts the Packers and Eagles had then placing that template on the Browns is just dumb... Those teams were/are both in totally different positions than the Browns are today. You cannot look at who got drafted where and when on those teams and apply it to Cleveland.. especially Philly who has been in the playoffs nearly every year since Andy Reid took over..and that is no small amount of years. ..The Packers have had Favre.. and have been a possible contender pretty much every year also.. The Browns.. have Zero playoff contention.. piss poor talent and gaping holes at 5-6 positions.. Neither of those teams had the kind of problems we do.. To compare.. it just doesn't wash.

[Brown Warrior]

Jim, that's cool. And in the end, odds are in your favor that the Browns go defense with the first pick. I think there's probably only one WR they'd consider at 6 and perhaps four DL. I do think Julio sneaks into the conversation with a nice note from his doctor in six weeks.

But let's throw out history because, first of all, it favors skill players. Secondly... it's not relevant to our specific situation. I think we all agree on that.

The two quotes that stick in my mind are "home run hitter" and Heckert's riff about quickness and athleticism on the line... which makes sense when we have Rubin, Shaefering, Mitchell, Ivey, Robinson, and Benard as the returnees. Only Benard really fits that description. Mitchell at least has the potential to be a prototypical LDE in a 4-3 and the coaches say Shaefering was the quickest interior lineman type on the team... so he might make a pretty good three tech.

I think the guys who round out that group best are Bowers, Quinn, Smith, Kerrigan, Houston, Reed, and Sheard... guys with some athleticism and quicks. Edge rushers. RDEs. On passing downs, you might see one of them and Benard as bookends with Shaefering and Mitchell inside. Maybe Brandon Mebane.

If we do take Green in one, I could see us trading up a little to get a target from that group like Reed. I'm a little tired of hearing he's undersized for DE at 6'4" and 265... when that's slightly bigger than the average of Abraham, Allen, Osi, Cole, and Freeney. In fact, it's almost EXACTLY Abraham.

[Brown Warrior]

BTW, an example of what I'd do with the front 7 if we do draft Green:

1. Draft an RDE type at 37 or in a slight trade-up. Houston has risen too far... but Brooks Reed might be gettable. He's been compared to Clay Matthews in his relentlessness and he's 6'4" and 265.

2. Sign under tackle Brandon Mebane from Seattle. Holmgren kid. Young and very talented. Now the DL rotation is Reed, Mebane, Rubin, Benard, Shaefering, and Mitchell. Three tackles and three ends. Passing downs, I'm thinking Reed and Benard on the ends. Nice heat.

3. Draft Mason Foster or Bruce Davis at the top of three. Linebackers with upside and versatility. Also sign one of the scads of good linebackers expected to be available in free agency (Rocky McIntosh?). They'll join DQJ, Gocong, Fujita, and Maiava. Nice group, nice athleticism, lots of guys who can play more than one spot. Foster, like Gocong, can play all three positions.

[Riffer X]

This is this year, the NFL Draft of 2011. It bears no resemblance to anything in the past that anybody currently involved in the process per this organization has done previously. There is no magic formula or equation, everything is conducive to this particular team at this particular time.

Some of you guys are killing yourselves trying to figure out the answer to this by using data, and it's not how football works.

Another thing, just because recent trendings may show a particular size for a particular player or scheme, don't get too wrapped up in that stuff. Just like you shouldn't get too wrapped up in when certain players/positions have went before in the draft. There are way too many variables to do an actual scientific hypothesis that bears any truth or validity. Even if it did, it doesn't mean anything because those things could easily be transcended with one easy selection on draft day, throwing a wrench into the whole works.

The more I look at this, the more I think I may want JJ Watt if Green is gone. Honestly, I think the guy being white hurts his stock in some people's eyes. We do realize that the kid did 34 reps with long ass 34 inch arms right? How about a sickening 37 inch vertical at 6'5? This kid is explosive, could play the 3 or 5 technique and is close to a sure thing, he has no knocks or red flags. Put him in the ACC and he easily puts up double digit sack numbers, but the bottom line is he is disruptive as hell regardless of high sack volume. His 7 sacks last year doesn't tell anybody how many pressures and batted balls he had to go along with his TFL's. This kid is an old school stud and was only a junior this year.

You want a guaranteed stud that can pressure offenses and solidify the run while being versatile, this is your guy. I am not afraid to veer from the norm on this, and I know some folks are going to think I am batshit. Another thing, I have grown to have a slight mancrush for Hankerson, I think it is possible he ends up the best receiver in the draft when all is said and done.

Give me Watt and Hankerson, even with standing put at pick six and I would be one happy guy. It would be sweet to nab Watt or even a guy like Kerrigan with a slight trade down, settling for nothing less than a second.

[Brown Warrior]

That'd be a good draft, Riff. I don't really agree on Watt, but you know that. I think he'll be less able to overpower NFL tackles and he won't have the quickness to be a legit edge rusher... something the Browns really need. I also don't think Heckert was blowing smoke when he offhandedly said the Browns want quick, athletic DEs. He knows the key is to get after the quarterback.

I know Watt's an athlete, but I don't know how quick he is compared to Quinn, Smith, etc. Just my gut. I think he goes to a 3-4 team. He's Aaron Smith but perhaps even better.

I think when the smoke clears, the Bengals will take a QB if he's there. Hell, Gabbert even reminds me a little of a young Carson Palmer, when he still had wheels. And if that happens, I think you could see Green, Quinn, Fairley, and either Bowers or Dareus there at 6. I think the top five could be (not in order) Newton, Gabbert, Miller, and 2 of these three: Peterson, Dareus, and Bowers.

Who would the Browns pick between Green, Quinn, Fairley, and (say) Dareus? Because of Shaefering and perhaps Mebane as a plan at DT, I'd probably reduce it to Green and Quinn... and go Quinn.

[Riffer X]

My problem is I see too many bust potential guys with Quinn, Dareus, Bowers and Fairley. This team CANNOT afford to blow a pick again, so we have to be positively sure what we are getting. Quinn is risky, I don't care what anyone says and he has serious red flags in the running game. Dareus could easily transcend into another Bunckley, they are very similar cuz I haven't seen much of a body of work out of Dareus or Fairley. Bowers has some slight knee issues and racked up sacks in the ACC of all places, the same place where Quinn only had 11 in 2009.

You want a sure fire football player, Watt won't fail and the best thing is he is versatile and that is huge. Green is close to being a guarantee unless injury intervenes, but the rest are all pretty iffy in my book. Peterson is a sure thing along with probably Von Miller, who I also like a ton.

Don't forget about Miller and pigeon hole him to a 3-4, that kid is awesome and wold be phenomenal as a hybrid WLB/RDE in certain situations. Jauron could have fun with that kid.

[grumpy_dinosaur]

Out of all the players being thrown around for the top 10 picks, Bowers and Quinn stick out to me like they'll be the biggest busts. The tape I've seen of them I'm just not very impressed at all.

[Brown Warrior]

Really? Quinn looks like a freak on film to me.

[Riffer X]

Originally Posted by grumpy_dinosaur

Out of all the players being thrown around for the top 10 picks, Bowers and Quinn stick out to me like they'll be the biggest busts. The tape I've seen of them I'm just not very impressed at all.

Tell me about it. It's like Quinn could be LT or some Florida State DE from the past.

Complete enigma for me. If we were closer to being there, I could see possibly taking him. Right now, we can't afford to miss on some speed rushing workout warrior who didn't play all of last season and had only 11 sacks in 2009 while playing JV ACC ball. The film tells you he gets his ass beat against the run too.