Is the Top 6 Coming Into Focus?

[Brown Warrior]

Well, of course not... but the old mock thread had 16,000 posts and we need to refresh.

But a few things are becoming at least clearer:

1. Panthers: The prevailing opinion among the top draftnick dudes like Mayock is that the Panthers will go QB, partially because it's tough to find a DL clean enough to pick here. The only one is Dareus... and then you have to debate impact of a non-passrusher DL versus a franchise QB. For a time, some questioned whether the Panthers loved Gabbert enough, but that seems to have subsided after his great workout where his footwork was impressive.

Looks like Gabbert as of March 24th.

2. Broncos: Mayock said the prevailing opinion among NFL GMs is that Dareus is a near lock here. Things change, but let's go with that for now.

3. Bills: More and more, it's Newton as the icon of Buffalo. Don Banks is convinced of it. Several GMs have told PFT that they're under the impression that the Bills love Newton.

4. Bengals: Still the Wild Card. They need DL in a really bad way, but the only clean prospect is gone. They could have a pass rusher (Bowers or Quinn) or the boom-bust DT (Fairley)... or they could break the Browns hearts and take A.J. Green. There are also some rumblings that they like Julio Jones a lot, but that would be a shocker.

Like the Browns, it feels like one of the three DL or Green. I think they would've taken whichever QB was there... but unfortunately I think they're both gone.

5. Cardinals: With the QBs gone, Von Miller is even more of a stone-cold lock here.

6. Browns: I think it's simple, really. If Green is there, he's Brown. And if Bowers shows up healthy enough to pique the Bengals interest? It could happen. The Browns would be choosing between Green, Fairley, and Quinn... and that's not a tough one.

Then Peterson is a very easy pick for SF and Fairley is probably a Titan.

[Brown Warrior]

Don Banks adds a little sumpin' sumpin' here. He gives some clues on his new mock, which it appears will have Gabbert at 1 and Newton at 3. Sounds like he might have a surprise at #4 with the initials JJ?

* Now that there's a little buzz about Alabama's Julio Jones perhaps leap-frogging Georgia's A.J. Green to be the first receiver selected, it's very possible that Green could be sitting there waiting for Cleveland at No. 6. New Browns head coach Pat Shurmur didn't sound like he would have any problem if that scenario unfolds. Finding a No. 1 receiver for second-year quarterback Colt McCoy has to rate high on the Browns' draft need list.

"We got to know him a little bit at the combine, and I think he's a fantastic kid and a great player,'' Shurmur said. "As we go forward here in the next few weeks, we'll get some more information, but I think he's an outstanding player. He's a good-looking guy.''

I asked almost every coach I talked to how many "elite'' players were in this year's first round, and Shurmur surmised that list could even extend beyond this year's top 10.

Read more: Seahawks not playing down their interest in Kevin Kolb - Don Banks - SI.com

[handbanana]

I don't think we can totally discount Peterson. From all accounts, this is the guy that everyone will be kicking themselves over for passing on when the dust settles from this draft a couple years from now.

I'm still fully entrenched in the Green/dl camp, but a Peterson, Haden, Ward and insert whoever you want backfield is damn sexy.

[YtownBacker]

Originally Posted by handbanana

I don't think we can totally discount Peterson. From all accounts, this is the guy that everyone will be kicking themselves over for passing on when the dust settles from this draft a couple years from now.

I'm still fully entrenched in the Green/dl camp, but a Peterson, Haden, Ward and insert whoever you want backfield is damn sexy.

I think a few team from #1 to #5 will be looking hard at Peterson. Honestly I'd be surprised if he gets to San Fran at #7. With all the question marks surrounding Fairley, Bowers, Quinn and the QBs, Peterson and Green look like the BPA and the safest picks. Miller also a great pick for any 3-4 team.

The key is the two QBs and I still think both going ahead of our pick isn't engraved in stone. If I have a ton of needs, like Buffalo, why do I take a project QB when I have a guy who can hold the fort while I get some pieces in place. Newton is too "Boom or Bust" to take at #3. Even taking Gabbert at #1 is a risk. Can he give you more then Clausen did last year with no supporting cast? These teams need so much on both sides of the ball that taking a QB who isn't ready to play, has some question mark and isn't ready to play from day one is a big chance.

I think this goes on until draft day. "Boom or Bust" guys are scary when you absolutely have to hit the nail on the head with that high #1 pick. Almost makes you look past them to Watts or Jones.

[Brown Warrior]

I think the prevailing personnel philosophy around the league, summed up great in that article that included Chuckie and many others, is simple: Get. Your. Quarterback. Everything else is a hell of a lot easier and if you don't have that, you really don't have nothin'.

It seems to be paying off more often than not. The teams that jumped in on Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Brees (through f/a), Bradford, Sanchez, Flacco, Ryan, Stafford, etc., seem to be in much better shape than the teams trying to take an alternate route.

The Rams have become a big example cited in article after article: They did a whole lot of things to get better, drafting this lineman and that. Then they drafted Bradford and got back on the map. And, of course, the new coach and new QB format is all the rage and talked about on a daily basis online and on NFLN.

So unless you fully intend to draft in the top three every year... and assuming you don't already have your long-term franchise guy... the notion is you take him. You don't wait until you've herded all the cats.

But nobody really knows nothin'. I just expect both QBs in the top five now. And I think the corner "drops" to 7 or lower. Which is still insanely high for a corner.

[YtownBacker]

Originally Posted by Brown Warrior

I think the prevailing personnel philosophy around the league, summed up great in that article that included Chuckie and many others, is simple: Get. Your. Quarterback. Everything else is a hell of a lot easier and if you don't have that, you really don't have nothin'.

It seems to be paying off more often than not. The teams that jumped in on Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Brees (through f/a), Bradford, Sanchez, Flacco, Ryan, Stafford, etc., seem to be in much better shape than the teams trying to take an alternate route.

The Rams have become a big example cited in article after article: They did a whole lot of things to get better, drafting this lineman and that. Then they drafted Bradford and got back on the map. And, of course, the new coach and new QB format is all the rage and talked about on a daily basis online and on NFLN.

So unless you fully intend to draft in the top three every year... and assuming you don't already have your long-term franchise guy... the notion is you take him. You don't wait until you've herded all the cats.

But nobody really knows nothin'. I just expect both QBs in the top five now. And I think the corner "drops" to 7 or lower. Which is still insanely high for a corner.

Everybody understands that this is a QB driven league but you don't just take a QB because you need one. You better be damn sure that he fits your situation and that he will be your franchise QB of the future.

Drafting the wrong QB or guessing wrong on a QB with too many question marks sets your franchise back 3 years. Picking Newton is a big gamble. Carolina picked two QBs last year and haven't even given Clausen a chance to establish himself. Personally, I didn't like him that much but you can't really evaluate a guy by throwing him to the sharks when he isn't close to ready.

So, is picking Gabbert going to have the same result as Clausen last year. Remember, some thought the Browns needed to spend their first round pick on Clausen because you have to have a QB.

I agree you need a franchise QB or you aren't going far in this league, but if you are picking #1 you better be sure Gabbert is that. My opinion is that he isn't Bradford and isn't going to put a team on his back and carry them. As for Newton, he is raw as hell and a one year wonder with just too many question marks. He could be sitting behind Fitzgerald for two years and who knows if he has it in his character to sit , learn and wait for his turn. I say no.

You got to get your QB, but not just any QB. Honestly, I'd rather take a shot later with Ponder, Mallet or one of the others then Newton.

[BernietheKid]

Interesting article about the possibility of Atlanta trading up to #6 to get Green if he is there:

Here’s what it would take for Falcons to get A.J. Green | Atlanta Falcons

[Brown Warrior]

True. But I'm not a GM or head scout for any number of reasons, and my inability to separate my brain, gut, and heart is probably chief among them! Clausen is a local guy who was nice to my son so I was pulling for him.

I try to do a better job of stepping back and reading what the "experts" say... and they seem to be saying (and hearing) that plenty of teams see both Gabbert and Newton as legit top five picks.

Gabbert in particular has Mayock, McShay, Banks... all of them... writing that he's absolutely on the same level as the highly drafted QBs of recent past. Mayock said his workout ranks right up there with Bradford, the mother of all workouts (until the next one). Mayock gets an accurate vibe from NFL types and believes both guys will go top 10, probably top 5, and very possibly top 3.

Nothing's ever certain. But the smoke signals currently say Gabbert, Dareus, Newton, (BENGALS), Miller. And if either QB gets out of that top three, they won't get past four and five.

Originally Posted by YtownBacker

Everybody understands that this is a QB driven league but you don't just take a QB because you need one. You better be damn sure that he fits your situation and that he will be your franchise QB of the future.

Drafting the wrong QB or guessing wrong on a QB with too many question marks sets your franchise back 3 years. Picking Newton is a big gamble. Carolina picked two QBs last year and haven't even given Clausen a chance to establish himself. Personally, I didn't like him that much but you can't really evaluate a guy by throwing him to the sharks when he isn't close to ready.

So, is picking Gabbert going to have the same result as Clausen last year. Remember, some thought the Browns needed to spend their first round pick on Clausen because you have to have a QB.

I agree you need a franchise QB or you aren't going far in this league, but if you are picking #1 you better be sure Gabbert is that. My opinion is that he isn't Bradford and isn't going to put a team on his back and carry them. As for Newton, he is raw as hell and a one year wonder with just too many question marks. He could be sitting behind Fitzgerald for two years and who knows if he has it in his character to sit , learn and wait for his turn. I say no.

You got to get your QB, but not just any QB. Honestly, I'd rather take a shot later with Ponder, Mallet or one of the others then Newton.

[TheBestPlayersPlay]

Originally Posted by BernietheKid

Interesting article about the possibility of Atlanta trading up to #6 to get Green if he is there: Here’s what it would take for Falcons to get A.J. Green | Atlanta Falcons

It would be real tough not to pull the trigger on this. 2 first round picks and a #2? Maybe we get lucky and still land a Watt or a Kerrigan.

[Brown Warrior]

I thought the article said their first and second this year, second the next year. Where they pick... that's not a great trade.

[Brown Warrior]

Yeah, the Falcons pick 27th. The guy who wrote this is dreaming. The Browns lack stars, not bodies. Even their 1, 2, and 3 isn't a very smart deal for us.

[YtownBacker]

Originally Posted by Brown Warrior

True. But I'm not a GM or head scout for any number of reasons, and my inability to separate my brain, gut, and heart is probably chief among them! Clausen is a local guy who was nice to my son so I was pulling for him.

I try to do a better job of stepping back and reading what the "experts" say... and they seem to be saying (and hearing) that plenty of teams see both Gabbert and Newton as legit top five picks.

Gabbert in particular has Mayock, McShay, Banks... all of them... writing that he's absolutely on the same level as the highly drafted QBs of recent past. Mayock said his workout ranks right up there with Bradford, the mother of all workouts (until the next one). Mayock gets an accurate vibe from NFL types and believes both guys will go top 10, probably top 5, and very possibly top 3.

Nothing's ever certain. But the smoke signals currently say Gabbert, Dareus, Newton, (BENGALS), Miller. And if either QB gets out of that top three, they won't get past four and five.

Mayock said of Gabbert. "A poor man's Bradford" Has to work on his drops and the book is still open on his down the field accuracy. His deep ball accuracy was a question mark from most who reported on him.

Sorry, by in my book Newton is no more a sure thing then Fairley. So, I'd say someone in the top 5 will take Gabbert, just because teams always push QBs higher on their boards if they need one. They get overevaluated. I'd say Dareus is a lock top 5 as is Miller. Green should be a top six and anybody that let's Peterson slip past them might be kicking themselves in the ass in a year.

So, if Cincy takes Green then which way should the Browns go? Let's say Gabbert, Dareus, Miller and Green are gone. I think Buffalo may fool a lot of people and take Bowers (if he's healthy) or Peterson, but will say Newton for sake of argument. But, say we got Quinn, Bowers, Fairley, Peterson, Jones, Watt, Aldon Smith and Prince on the board, which most say is the rest of the top ten, who do you take?

The BPA with the least bust factor and still a position of need is Peterson. Like it or not he will grade the highest and the Browns would drat a DE in the second round. I don't think it's Jones because of his hands. He has too much of a Braylon Edwards factor to him. (everyone was saying that Edwards' hands improved his senior year and coaches could change his focus and work habits). As much as the QBs will affect the draft for us, I think Bowers's knees will be the key.