ESPN Insider: Three Round Mock - McShay

[Fooleeze]

The 2011 NFL draft is just a few weeks away and things are finally beginning to come into focus.
All of our game-tape evaluations are in the books. From this point on the only minor shakeups to our draft board will be directly linked to information from NFL teams regarding player red flags such as durability and character concerns.
Plus, because the lockout is preventing NFL players from moving, free agency isn't changing team needs like it usually does.
I've expanded my latest projection to cover the first three rounds and here's how I see things playing out.


Carolina Panthers

Record: 2-14


* Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

Newton is not the No. 1 player on my board -- that would be Alabama DT Marcell Dareus -- and defensive tackle is as much of a need as quarterback, but I'm hearing a lot of buzz from people in the league that Carolina is leaning toward a quarterback. I'm also hearing the Panthers favor Newton over Missouri's Blaine Gabbert, and where there's smoke there's often fire. It's not that Gabbert's stock is falling, it's just that Carolina apparently likes Newton's incredible physical tools and immense upside.



Denver Broncos

Record: 4-12


* Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama

The Broncos are in desperate need of a true impact defensive tackle to anchor new coach John Fox's 4-3 defense and will be holding their breath until Carolina picks. Denver will be thrilled if Dareus falls here because he fits the mold of an every-down difference-maker and also carries minimal baggage.



Buffalo Bills

Record: 4-12


Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M

The Bills' most significant need is at left offensive tackle but there is not one on the board worth this pick and, although Gabbert would eventually provide a major upgrade at quarterback, Miller would be an immediate boost for a 3-4 defense that is in dire need of pass rushers. Former first-round pick Aaron Maybin has not realized his enormous potential and Miller is a plug-and-play impact rusher who could help fill the void by quickly becoming a double-digit sack man.



Cincinnati Bengals

Record: 4-12


* A.J. Green, WR, Georgia

I'd sure like to be a fly on the wall in Cincinnati's draft room this year. It is clear as day that QB Carson Palmer has no intention of ever wearing a Bengals uniform again, but the team is standing firm to this point on Palmer as its starter, at least in the short term. Gabbert would make sense as a backup plan but I don't get the feeling the team is going to let Palmer off the hook that easily. Green is a higher-rated prospect anyway and has the physical tools to help the team move on after the departures of Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens. Green's size, athleticism and ball skills will make him the next big NFL star at wide receiver.



Arizona Cardinals

Record: 5-11


* Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri

With Miller off the board, Gabbert is a no-brainer here. The Cardinals might have a trying season in 2011 with a rookie quarterback at the helm but the team cannot believe that Max Hall or John Skelton is the long-term answer at the position. Gabbert might not be the first quarterback off the board but I believe his combination of intangibles, mental makeup and accuracy will make him the best quarterback from the 2011 class when all is said and done.



Cleveland Browns

Record: 5-11


Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina

It appeared at one point that Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers would be a steal here but concerns about Bowers' injured knee continue to increase. Quinn, meanwhile, is coming off a strong pro day workout, and while he's not as stout against the run he offers significantly more upside than Bowers as a pass rusher. Adding an impact right defensive end like Quinn would be a great start for the Browns as they transition to a 4-3 defense.


San Francisco 49ers

Record: 6-10


* Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU

Yes, the 49ers need a quarterback, but they would still hit the jackpot with Peterson. You'd be hard-pressed to find an NFL general manager who doesn't have Peterson as one of the top five overall players on the board, and for many teams he's in the discussion as the No. 1 overall prospect. San Francisco simply can't pass on the opportunity to fill a need with a player like Peterson. And new coach Jim Harbaugh likely has enough confidence in his ability to develop quarterbacks that he feels he can wait until the second round (or trade up into the end of the first) to get someone like Christian Ponder or Andy Dalton.


Tennessee Titans

Record: 6-10


* Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn

The Titans picked offensive skill players in the first round in 2008 and 2009 (RB Chris Johnson, WR Kenny Britt), but this year could mark a second straight defensive lineman in the first round after Tennessee took DE Derrick Morgan in 2010. Fairley is the most naturally gifted interior pass rusher in this draft and has a lot of upside, but the Titans need to decide if they are willing to take a chance on a player who could be a perennial Pro Bowler or turn into the next big DT bust thanks to questionable work ethic and football character.


Dallas Cowboys

Record: 6-10


* Tyron Smith, OT, USC

This is not a splash pick but the Cowboys have a big need at offensive tackle and this is the area where the run on the top OTs will likely begin. And it's always better to be on the front end of a run than chasing it from behind. Dallas needs to protect QB Tony Romo and it appears current RT Marc Colombo is on his last leg, making Smith a good fit. He has the ability to play on either side and Smith's upside is greater than any other tackle in this draft.


Washington Redskins

Record: 6-10


Julio Jones, WR, Alabama

Jones is worth the pick despite recent surgery to repair a fracture in his foot, and in addition to his pass catching ability he is a perfect fit in an offensive system that requires its receivers to play big roles as blockers in the running game. The Redskins also need major help along the defensive front seven and could trade back in order to get more picks with which to address that need, but if they stay put here Jones makes the most sense.


Houston Texans

Record: 6-10


Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple

With Miller and Quinn gone there is no outside linebacker on the board who can address the Texans' need for a pass rusher, and while California's Cameron Jordan or Wisconsin's J.J. Watt could also be the pick I believe Wilkerson has more upside than any other 3-4 end in this draft. Houston also has a need at cornerback, but new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips believes that if he has a solid front seven he can live with an average secondary.


Minnesota Vikings

Record:6-10


Cameron Jordan, DE, California

Minnesota's biggest need is at quarterback but any of the remaining QBs on the board would be a reach here. Offensive tackle is another need area and Boston College's Anthony Castonzo or Colorado's Nate Solder are possibilities, but with DE Ray Edwards set to hit free agency Jordan provides better value than an offensive tackle. Bowers will be in play if his knee checks out but Jordan is a good option given his size, quickness, power and versatility.


Detroit Lions

Record: 6-10


Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska

This is the dream scenario for Detroit. With Peterson falling to the 49ers the door is open for Amukamara to slide to the Lions, who could address their biggest need with one of the top eight players on my board. Put Amukamara and his size, speed and instincts opposite Lions CB Chris Houston and Detroit suddenly has one of the better young cornerback tandems in the league.


St. Louis Rams

Record: 7-9


Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois

Rams fans are surely crossing their fingers that Jones will fall to this point but that seems unlikely, and there is no outside linebacker on the board who can fill the Rams' second-biggest need. Several players could offer value here but Liuget would fill the biggest need. He is on the short side but is quick, stout and powerful, and his motor never stops running. And if there's anything we've learned about Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo it's that he can never have enough quality defensive linemen.


Miami Dolphins

Record: 7-9


Mike Pouncey, C/G, Florida

At first glance this might seem a bit high for an interior offensive lineman, especially with so much talk about Alabama RB Mark Ingram landing in Miami and filling the Dolphins' top need, but NFL running backs have a short shelf life to begin with and Ingram comes to the league one year removed from a knee injury that limited his playing time in 2010. Rather than reaching for a quarterback to fill their No. 2 need, the Dolphins would be best-served to draft the best available offensive lineman in Pouncey, who has the tools and attitude to do for Miami's interior offensive line what his twin brother, Maurkice, did for the Steelers in 2010.


Jacksonville Jaguars

Record: 8-8


Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue

The Jaguars have bigger needs but defensive end offers the most value here. I would be tempted to take a shot on Bowers or the upside offered by Missouri's Aldon Smith here, but Jags GM Gene Smith has proved he will take the player with the higher floor rather than the higher ceiling. Kerrigan has some limitations but Jacksonville knows exactly what it would be getting, which is a player with the overall skill set to immediately push for a starting job opposite Jaguars DE Aaron Kampman.


New England Patriots (from Oakland)

Record: 14-2


J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin

Watt is best-suited for the kind of three-man front New England runs, which can utilize him primarily as a 5-technique but is also flexible enough to move him around and take advantage of his ability to do some things in space. The Patriots are always a trade possibility but because they already have six picks in the first three rounds it makes sense to address their needs along the front seven at this point.


San Diego Chargers

Record: 9-7


Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri

Some teams likely view Smith as a right end in a 4-3 scheme but I think he has the potential to transition to outside linebacker in a 3-4. The Chargers have gotten only three career sacks from 2009 first-round pick Larry English and need a 3-4 pass rusher who can take some pressure off OLB Shaun Phillips. While Smith still has some developing to do, he can pressure the quarterback in tight spaces, which is important for a 3-4 OLB.


New York Giants

Record: 10-6


Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College

The ideal scenario for the Giants is Pouncey falling to them, and trading back is also a possibility if the right player is not available. Their biggest need is for a difference maker at linebacker and Ingram could also be in play, but with no impact linebacker available the best offensive lineman on the board would be the best option. Castonzo could play inside at guard as a rookie and then kick out to tackle, or the Giants could plug him in at tackle immediately and shuffle their existing personnel. Either way, Castonzo has the ability to be a quality starter for the next decade and the Giants would do well to start addressing the future of their offensive line.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Record: 10-6


Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson

The results of Bowers' re-check with NFL combine doctors and medical checks from team doctors during visits are still to come, but based strictly on his football skills Bowers is a top-10 talent. He's not truly elite because he is not an exceptional pass rusher but he brings everything else to the table and at this point is worth the risk. Tampa Bay has a huge need at end and this is a good spot to take a risk. If Bowers pans out alongside 2010 picks Gerald McCoy and Brian Price, the Bucs would have a revitalized defensive line to build around.


Kansas City Chiefs

Record: 10-6


Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin

Kansas City needs a nose tackle and a wide receiver but this is early for any of the true NTs on the board and there will be plenty of wideouts available in later rounds who can take advantage of the attention defenses pay to Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe. Chiefs GM Scott Pioli has a history of drafting NFL-ready players with little or no baggage and, while Solder has more upside, Carimi would step in to provide an immediate upgrade and be a solid starter for years to come.


Indianapolis Colts

Record: 10-6


Nate Solder, OT, Colorado

This one is a no-brainer. The Colts' offensive line has struggled mightily over the last couple of seasons and Indianapolis must upgrade there. Not only do the Colts need to protect the face of their franchise in QB Peyton Manning, they also need to address a running game that ranked 29th in the NFL last season. Solder is a good fit for an offense that emphasizes quickness and athleticism over brute strength.


Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 10-6


Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State

I struggled with this pick more than any other in the first round, having a hard time finding a player who fits Philadelphia's needs and was worthy of the pick. In the end, guard and tackle are priorities and Sherrod has the versatility to contribute at both positions. He's not explosive or dominant and is a bit of a reach here, but Sherrod consistently gets into position and rarely makes mistakes, and recent off-field issues for current OT Jason Peters could increase the urgency to address the offensive line. The Eagles could also consider the top available cornerbacks here, but all come with questions.


New Orleans Saints

Record: 11-5


Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa

There are some red flags surrounding Clayborn because he suffers from Erb's palsy, a condition stemming from difficult childbirth that affects the strength and range of motion in his right arm. However, he has top-20 talent and could provide pass-rush help right away at right end. Clayborn would help take some pressure off defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, who was forced to blitz more than he would like last season, and a secondary that was asked to do too much in 2010. How bad was the New Orleans pass rush last season? There were seven games in which the Saints recorded one or no sacks.


Seattle Seahawks

Record: 7-9


Jake Locker, QB, Washington

Locker is worth a late-first round pick in my opinion but there are some questions about whether he is a fit in Seattle's West Coast offense, which requires accurate throws and quick decisions in the pocket. However, new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell comes in from Minnesota and brings a scheme that showed a lot of variety in recent seasons depending on the quarterback and also used the running game to set up play-action/bootleg packages. Bevell is capable of tweaking his offense to get Locker working on the run outside the pocket, where he is at his best. The ideal situation would be to bring free agent Matt Hasselbeck back on a short-term deal to help mentor Locker and give him time to develop.


Baltimore Ravens

Record: 12-4


Brandon Harris, CB, Miami

With no worthy offensive tackle to fill a need and wide receivers available later who can address holes at that position, this pick comes down to a defensive end like Ohio State's Cameron Heyward or a cornerback like Harris. Heyward comes with some medical concerns after offseason Tommy John surgery on his elbow and the risk might be too great after last year's first-round end, Sergio Kindle, did not play in 2010 because of injury. Colorado CB Jimmy Smith is more talented than Harris but comes with a lot of character flags, and while Harris needs some work he has the speed and athleticism to contribute as a sub-package corner early on and eventually become a starter.


Atlanta Falcons

Record: 13-3


Brooks Reed, DE, Arizona

The Falcons are in the market for a pass rusher who can keep DE John Abraham fresh and be groomed as Abraham's eventual replacement, and while Reed's ideal fit is at 3-4 outside linebacker he has good size (6-foot-3, 263 pounds) and is a similar player to the Eagles' Brandon Graham, who the Falcons had interest in last year. Also, history tells us Atlanta prefers to draft seniors and Reed is an experienced player coming off a productive senior season.


New England Patriots

Record: 14-2


Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

I don't think the Patriots are eager to draft a running back in the first round but it is a position of need and if the only back with a first-round grade falls to them I expect Bill Belichick to cash in.


Chicago Bears

Record: 11-5


Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina

Austin carries a second-round grade and would be a reach here, but there is a big dropoff in this class in the mid-20s and at this point the Bears could take any of about 15-20 players and not see a big difference in talent level. That offsets some of the reach, and the Bears are also desperate for an impact 3-technique tackle who can anchor the front in their Tampa 2 system. Austin is the only tackle on the board with the potential to do that, and if the Bears do their homework and are comfortable they have answered any character questions and can keep Austin focused, this could be an interesting surprise pick.


New York Jets

Record: 11-5


Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor

The Jets' search for a 3-4 nose tackle could follow the same logic as Chicago's for a 3-technique. Taylor is thick and can anchor against the run and he moves well for a big guy, but he also comes with some character baggage and his motor runs hot and cold. He would end up with a very good defensive coaching staff in New York, though, and the Jets have a need to groom the next centerpiece for their front seven. It's either Taylor with this pick or taking a chance on someone like Hampton's Kenrick Ellis in the third round.


Pittsburgh Steelers

Record: 12-4


Danny Watkins, G, Baylor

What do you think the Las Vegas odds would have been at the start of the 2010 season that Baylor would have back-to-back picks in the first round? In all seriousness, Watkins is solid in pass protection and as a run blocker and brings a nasty disposition to the table. He would be a nice fit next to 2010 first-rounder and Pro Bowler Maurkice Pouncey. The Steelers could also opt for a cornerback like Williams or Harris, but the interior offensive line is Pittsburgh's top need.


Green Bay Packers

Record: 10-6


Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State

The defending Super Bowl champions have a very good nose tackle in B.J. Raji but injuries, free agency and off-field issues have created all kinds of questions at defensive end. If Heyward checks out medically he would be a steal here with his strength, motor and versatility.





Round 2

Pick	Team	Player	Position	School
33.	New England (from Car.)	Clint Boling	OG	Georgia
34.	Buffalo	Christian Ponder	QB	Florida State
35.	Cincinnati	Andy Dalton	QB	TCU
36.	Denver	Kyle Rudolph	TE	Notre Dame
37.	Cleveland	Stephen Paea	DT	Oregon State
38.	Arizona	Akeem Ayers	OLB	UCLA
39.	Tennessee	Ryan Mallett	QB	Arkansas
40.	Dallas	Aaron Williams	DB	Texas
41.	Washington	Colin Kaepernick	QB	Nevada
42.	Houston	Justin Houston	OLB	Georgia
43.	Minnesota	Marcus Cannon	OT	TCU
44.	Detroit	Bruce Carter	LB	North Carolina
45.	San Francisco	Mikel Leshoure	RB	Illinois
46.	Denver (from Miami)	Rahim Moore	S	UCLA
47.	St. Louis	Randall Cobb	WR	Kentucky
48.	Oakland	Jimmy Smith	CB	Colorado
49.	Jacksonville	Mason Foster	LB	Washington
50.	San Diego	Allen Bailey	DE	Miami (FL)
51.	Tampa Bay	Ras-I Dowling	CB	Virginia
52.	New York Giants	Ryan Williams	RB	Virginia Tech
53.	Indianapolis	Christian Ballard	DL	Iowa
54.	Philadelphia	Martez Wilson	LB	Illinois
55.	Kansas City	Kelvin Sheppard	ILB	LSU
56.	New Orleans	Jurrell Casey	DT	USC
57.	Seattle	Orlando Franklin	G	Miami (FL)
58.	Baltimore	Torrey Smith	WR	Maryland
59.	Atlanta	Titus Young	WR	Boise State
60.	New England	James Carpenter	OT	Alabama
61.	San Diego (from NY Jets)	Jonathan Baldwin	WR	Pittsburgh
62.	Chicago	Benjamin Ijalana	OT	Villanova
63.	Pittsburgh	Johnny Patrick	CB	Louisville
64.	Green Bay	William Rackley	G	Lehigh

Round 3

Pick	Team	Player	Position	School
65.	Carolina	Jarvis Jenkins	DT	Clemson
66.	Cincinnati	Kendall Hunter	RB	Oklahoma State
67.	Denver	Quan Sturdivant	LB	North Carolina
68.	Buffalo	Lance Kendricks	TE	Wisconsin
69.	Arizona	Marcus Gilbert	OT	Florida
70.	Cleveland	Leonard Hankerson	WR	Miami (FL)
71.	Dallas	Brandon Hogan	CB	West Virginia
72.	New Orleans (from Wash)	Rodney Hudson	G/C	Florida State
73.	Houston	Jaiquawn Jarrett	S	Temple
74.	New England (from Minn.)	Jabaal Sheard	DE	Pittsburgh
75.	Detroit	Daniel Thomas	RB	Kansas State
76.	San Francisco	Kenrick Ellis	NT	Hampton
77.	Tennessee	Curtis Brown	CB	Texas
78.	St. Louis	Johnny White	RB	North Carolina
79.	Miami	Dion Lewis	RB	Pittsburgh
80.	Jacksonville	Greg Little	WR	North Carolina
81.	Oakland	Virgil Green	TE	Nevada
82.	San Diego	Lee Ziemba	OT	Auburn
83.	New York Giants	Terrell McClain	DT	South Florida
84.	Tampa Bay	Shane Vereen	RB	California
85.	Philadelphia	Joshua Thomas	CB	Buffalo
86.	Kansas City	Tandon Doss	WR	Indiana
87.	Indianapolis	John Moffitt	G	Wisconsin
88.	New Orleans	Joseph Lefeged	S	Rutgers
89.	San Diego (from Seattle)	Colin McCarthy	LB	Miami (FL)
90.	Baltimore	James Brewer	OT	Indiana
91.	Atlanta	Kendric Burney	CB	North Carolina
92.	New England	Marcus Gilchrist	DB	Clemson
93.	Chicago	Gregory Salas	Hawaii
94.	New York Jets	Jerrel Jernigan	WR	Troy
95.	Pittsburgh	Luke Stocker	TE	Tennessee
96.	Green Bay	Christopher Carter	OLB	Fresno State
97.	Carolina (compensatory)	Edmund Gates	WR	Abilene Christian

[Solon16]

I hate Mcshay but his 3 rounder is the most realistic I've seen

[Brown Warrior]

He has some unusual things happening, which doesn't mean they won't happen:

- He has BOTH Buffalo and the Bengals passing on Gabbert. I know Mayock deeply disagrees and doesn't think it will happen. Most of the top 10 is becoming kind of consistent around mock world (even with Grossi, who at least reads)... but the key difference here is Gabbert falling to AZ.

- He has Brooks Reed in round one. I've yet to see that. He also has Jabaal Sheard in three when he's often in late one and early two.

- He has the Browns taking an injured 3-tech in two over Randall Cobb. I struggle to see that as the right choice. I'd say we take our favorite WR in 2 and go back to the 3-tech in three.

- He has Hankerson falling to round three. It's not impossible, but I have a hard time seeing him getting out of two all the way.

McShay tends to be the guy I disagree with the most. Not sure why.

[YtownBacker]

Actually Kiper's seems a bit more in line with what analysts are projecting. I can't see us passing on Sheard twice. I can't see Hankerson falling into the 3rd round. Brandon Burton is climbing the charts well into the second round and he ignores him completely. 3-4 guys going to 4-3 teams and vice versa. Doesn't rally make sense to me. Can't see Pouncey all the up at 15 or Jacksonville taking Kerrigan or Bowers dropping all the way to 20 when the newest reports are that his knee checked out fine at the combine recheck and teams have done medicals on him during his visits and say the knee is fine. Also can't see NE taking two 1st round picks without trading but that said, one of the picks has to be a OL guy.

[Brown Warrior]

Originally Posted by YtownBacker

Actually Kiper's seems a bit more in line with what analysts are projecting. I can't see us passing on Sheard twice. I can't see Hankerson falling into the 3rd round. Brandon Burton is climbing the charts well into the second round and he ignores him completely. 3-4 guys going to 4-3 teams and vice versa. Doesn't rally make sense to me. Can't see Pouncey all the up at 15 or Jacksonville taking Kerrigan or Bowers dropping all the way to 20 when the newest reports are that his knee checked out fine at the combine recheck and teams have done medicals on him during his visits and say the knee is fine. Also can't see NE taking two 1st round picks without trading but that said, one of the picks has to be a OL guy.

Totally agree. It seems a bit funky to me.

[Flugel]

I like what he has for us in round 2 and 3 (Paea and Hankerson) quite a bit.

[Sez.EJ]

It's a solid draft for us... no necessarily the way I would go..but this would work.