OBR Mocks

[damajuki]

Hey shep. Nice to be back, for a minute.

I hear you. I know you are thoughtful and considered. And I know your philosophy well. It makes sense. There's little to disagree with about the NEED to pass better but LOTS to disagree with about HOW to make that happen.

I agree we don't want to be back in the top 10 again but that goes all ways. "Never again" in the top 10 means "never again a shot at a top 10 player". So we better land one, ANY one, while we're up here.

You seem to think JJ or AJ is that guy; I'd be fine if they are. But PP is almost certainly that guy too. I'm okay with any of them but I want the one who is MOST LIKELY to be the top 10 guy.

Statistically, the WR is not. Unless Heckert is sure AJ or JJ are the same as CJ (I'm likin' the J's today) or Fitz, I'm fine with the safer player.

Passing the ball will come. It doesn't have to be this draft, this pick that makes it happen.

[Brown Warrior]

And when you list the passcatchers on New England, what you're really saying is, "We could do this, too... just by getting prime-of-his-career Tom Brady."

It's not the receivers. It's Brady. Or Manning, who can make Justin Tamme super productive. Or Brees and all those "steals." Or Rodgers.

[heckofajobbrownie]

Oh, the Browns are missing lots of pieces. That's why I don't buy your case, while certainly not caring if Jones is the pick. Because that's one of the missing pieces.

But let's keep going, Shep: Who is catching balls for the Steelers?

Hines Ward: round three.
Mike Wallace: round three

Who catches the balls for the Ravens?

Anquan Boldin: round two
Derrick Mason: round four

Who catches balls for the Bengals?

Chad Johnson: second round
Andre Caldwell: third round

Or if you want to look at it another way, just go back and look at the draft. Any draft. Look at all the guys everyone thought were great who weren't.

We all get caught up in the idea that there are only a few players in each draft, and if we don't grab them right away we're screwed. It never ends up being the case.

[Brown Warrior]

Again, I'm not locked in or rigid about how... just know the Browns need to seriously improve their ability to pass the ball and score points, something Holmgren said from day one. How do we do that? We're one of few teams with two Pro Bowl OL, our TE led the AFC in catches for his position (and Moore's good, too), our tailback had 1,600 yards from scrimmage, and we're committed to Colt McCoy for now, at least.

So it has to happen at WR. And I'm open to suggestions about how we'll get a #1 type of guy if it isn't A.J. or Julio. And I mean that sincerely. And I'm also open to the notion that the offense and Shurmur will elevate Robo and/or Mo, and adding Cobb will have a synergistic effect.

Assuming across the board success, could I see another corner affecting the bottom line for the Browns like an elite pass rusher or #1 WR? Of course not. Not even close. Peterson covering #2 WRs instead of Brown... I really don't see that adding any victories. But seriously upgrading our WR corps or bringing in a guy who gets 12 sacks from the RDE spot? I think that moves the dials a lot, especially if we get both (like A.J. and Reed).

Heck, about the WRs you listed: All of those teams have brought in serious #1 WRs and picked them high in the draft. The Bengals had Chad Johnson but still brought in T.O. and drafted Simpson, Caldwell, Shipley, etc. The Steelers have taken Burruss and Holmes in round one; Holmes was there when they took Wallace to add deep speed. The Ravens brought in a big-time free agent in Boldin and are still looking to add speed, maybe with Torrey Smith.

Their commitment to the position dwarfs ours, frankly. I'd say signing James Jones and drafting Randall Cobb would put us in their ballpark... and I'm open to that, too. We just have to get way, WAY stronger at WR and we need to field an NFL-caliber passing game.

And I actually DO feel like our offense might be one big piece away.

[handbanana]

Shep, how about arguing from the stand point that we are drafting Green/Jones/et al not for this season, but 2 or 3 years down the road. Most young wide outs don't have immediate success, they more often than not break out in year 2 or 3. This is in line with when most consider the Browns will be ready to truly compete for the AFC North. We can draft our "final piece" this year and stash him away in a lower pressure situation for a couple few years until we are ready to compete and our guy had become a mature nfl player with experience.

[YtownBacker]

Appropriate article about the dangers of taking a WR in the first round. NFL draft 2011: Wide receivers are riskiest first-round choices - ESPN

John McTigue is a very accomplished NFL football voice and say that taking a WR in round one is a buyer beware scenario. Plenty of excellent WRs are available every year in the other rounds.

Vincent Jackson, Greg Jennings, Brandon Marshall, Mike Wallace, Chad Ochocinco and on and on and on.

Biggest bust position next to QB. Only 14 WR taken in the to ten in last 10 years and 4 were by the Lions. Some GMs just don't like to pick a WR that high because of the diva/bust factor.

Most interesting to me was the fact that in this new pass happy environment WRs aren't getting more balls even with teams running 3 WR sets 59% of the time. RBs and TEs are getting the extra passes and yardage to boast teams passing offense not WRs.

Enlightening article

[heckofajobbrownie]

And the Browns recently drafted Braylon Edwards with a pick higher than Burress or Holmes. I don't see how that makes your point. None of those 1st rounders are still playing for the team that drafted them. They were all allowed to walk for vaious reasons - Edwards and Burress were decent, but disappointments, while Holmes was a drug issue.

Look, I've got no problem with adding WRs. It's clear we need to do that. And I have no problem with taking Jones. I just don't think that makes a Peterson pick dumb, which is what you're arguing.

Interceptions win games too. Getting your team off the field on third down wins games. Taking away the other team's top weapons wins games.

Also, didn't you hate the Haden pick? And didn't that turn out to be the right one? You wanted Dez Bryant, I recall, who is currently being counseled by Cowboy vets because he's Chris Henry waiting to happen.

[YtownBacker]

To elevate this discussion I emailed the above article from ESPN to a friend at OBR. I got a reply from him that said this;

From the guys they have hanging around Berea they get the feeling that the Browns think the WR class in this draft is very thin and don't see much help after Green and Jones. They see some guys that could come in and add to what they have but no "home run hitter" as Holmgren wanted. If they don't take Green or Jones then don't look for them to take a WR in round two. Look instead for a guy like Pettis, Little or Salas who they talked to and interviewed at the Senior Bowl.

They seemed focused on adding 2 or 3 DL and think that the draft is as heavy in DBs as it is in DL. The name of Marcus Gilchrist and Aaron Williams keep coming up. they have met with Gilchrist 3 or 4 times. Worked him out at least twice and had him in for a visit and medical at CC.

Some names being tossed around by those trying to get anything out of Fort Berea are: Austin, Sheard, Reed, Aaron Williams, Bruce Carter, Allen Bailey, Pierre Allen, Gilchrist, Pettis, Jerrigan, Colin McCarthy, Casey Mathews, Pat Devlin, Burton and Kendall Hunter, Shane Vereen.

Maybe just because most of those guys were worked out or were brought in for an interview and both in some cases.

Where there's smoke, there's fire...................except a few days before the draft.

[Bronx Cheer]

I get that history shows that WRs (like any position) can be had in virtually any round, but that can be said for most positions. I also don't rally care much about past drafts, I care about how this one stacks up in particular.

I'm not Shep, so I am only explaining my thought process here, but I suspect he has something similar going on.

The DLs look way too risky at 6 (Quinn, Bowers, Fairley) while the DLs at the top of round 2 (Houston, Clayborn, Sheard, Liuget, Wilkerson, Austin, Paea) and three look to be pretty darn good.

The WRs at 6 look to be instant starters, while those in the second and later will not see the field for a year. The only way a new WR is getting time on this team is if he is a FA vet or a 5-star pedigree prospect.

Peterson would be an instant starter, but the CBs available in rounds 2 and 3 (Dowling, Williams, Smith, Brown, Harris and Gilchrist) would also provide immediate contributors and likely starters sometime during the season.

Mix these three conclusions of mine (wrong or not) with a dash of desire to give our young QB a fair evaluation and I cannot help but lean heavily toward grabbing Jones in the first with the hope that I'd have some good DL and CB options in rounds 2-3. I'd rather get two instant starters and another immediate contributor out of this draft then 2 starters and a bunch of special teamers.

[Brown Warrior]

Bronx, that is indeed how my favored draft developed. I see more depth on the DL than at WR and see those as very clear needs #1 and 2. And I guess I'm more Dimitroff than Belicheck, because need means a lot to me, especially in certain areas.

Heck, I'm not arguing that the only good WRs are first round WRs and never have. Ironically, I've argued exactly the opposite year after year. They're usually plentiful and available in the draft and in free agency, where guys as good as Holmes, Boldin, Owens, and Moss change teams regularly.

But pointing that out doesn't change what I'm saying, really: We have the worst best receiver in the NFL... and it's tough to even choose which one to nominate. We need a new best WR, not just another receiver. We lack a go-to guy, someone to keep safeties back, somebody who forces coverage to rotate his way. It would have a HUGE trickle down effect while adding a corner is unlikely to trickle UP to our pass rush... or at least it feels unlikely and counter to any sage wisdom.

As far as WRs contributing right away? Both Heckert guys did, right? Jackson and Maclin? On another thread several months ago, I showed how every year rookie WRs contribute right off the bat. Lots of them, actually.

As far as bustiest positions, I think it must be in the eye of the beholder because QB looks the safest in recent years with almost all the guys coming in looking pretty damn good... which is why we have a league full of competent to really good young QBs. Certainly Tampa Bay, Atlanta, the Jets, Baltimore, Detroit, and the Rams feel really good about their guys. It's been pretty clean.

On NFLN, they said DT has been the most bustworthy early choice. So I'm assuming it's a matter of parameters -- top 10 or first round, etc. Sobo compared DL and WR and said WR has been the safer way to go (just a week or so ago).

To me, the only "new best receiver" candidates, complete guys who start from day one, are Green and Jones. But I could easily see Jabaal Sheard or Brooks Reed as our starting RDE coming in at pick #37. I could see a three-tech in round 3 like Casey or the South Florida or Clemson kids, and I could see that guy starting.

I could see getting WSLB value in round 4, or maybe corner.

But as soon as we try to start with a corner... I realize that either DL or WR gets put off until round 3. And particularly at WR, I think that creates a bad, bad situation. Because we're pretty damn desperate there.

Finally, and I'm pool groggy so I may be rambling... Heck, I've said Joe Haden is really good but I still don't love the pick. I don't love corners in the top 10. The entire draft earned us a total of zero more wins. Like I said... you can win the draft without winning more games. We have a really good center and a really good corner... which moved us from 4 wins to 5 wins to 5 wins.

While we win draft points, the Bucs are winning more football games because of their drafts. I can't say I'm thrilled with two years of going in with top 10 picks... and coming out with a center and a corner. It improved us about as much as I expected.

[DaBrowns41]

Reporting of news is what the OBR is great at.... Not necessarily for draft coverage, however.

No way that Dareus falls to six, and it's highly unlikely Green falls. Even if Green makes it to Arizona, there's a good chance that they'll grab Green and get their Boldin back.

[YtownBacker]

Originally Posted by Bronx Cheer

I get that history shows that WRs (like any position) can be had in virtually any round, but that can be said for most positions. I also don't rally care much about past drafts, I care about how this one stacks up in particular.

I'm not Shep, so I am only explaining my thought process here, but I suspect he has something similar going on.

The DLs look way too risky at 6 (Quinn, Bowers, Fairley) while the DLs at the top of round 2 (Houston, Clayborn, Sheard, Liuget, Wilkerson, Austin, Paea) and three look to be pretty darn good.

The WRs at 6 look to be instant starters, while those in the second and later will not see the field for a year. The only way a new WR is getting time on this team is if he is a FA vet or a 5-star pedigree prospect.

Peterson would be an instant starter, but the CBs available in rounds 2 and 3 (Dowling, Williams, Smith, Brown, Harris and Gilchrist) would also provide immediate contributors and likely starters sometime during the season.

Mix these three conclusions of mine (wrong or not) with a dash of desire to give our young QB a fair evaluation and I cannot help but lean heavily toward grabbing Jones in the first with the hope that I'd have some good DL and CB options in rounds 2-3. I'd rather get two instant starters and another immediate contributor out of this draft then 2 starters and a bunch of special teamers.

Forget Peterson. Can't we have one post without it trending to Peterson. I brought in a ESPN article that I thought was debate worthy. I didn't say a thing about Peterson.

As a matter of fact my next post said the Browns are most likely leaning toward WR because they don't see much depth beyond the first round that excites them. But, on the contrary they like the DB depth of this draft.

I never said to take Peterson. I only said that he is an option because he may be the best player on their board and it is a position of need.

Sorry, but I don't see Peterson mentioned anywhere in either of my posts. My post was about the risk of WRs in the past. The debate should be was it just the players or is the position risky.

But hell, if you and Shep want to talk Peterson, it's a public forum.