Draft Things I Think I Know (For Everybody)...

[Riffer X]

Originally Posted by Riffer X

NFL.com news: Redskins look to move up in draft, take Missouri QB Gabbert

Issue here with trading back to the Skins. They only have a 1st and 4th I believe, which would mean any compensation would probably be for next season.

I am really thinking the Browns want Patty Pete there to facilitate a trade down. Grossi actually had a good take this week on Browns Red Zone, and paraphrasing he basically said the Browns really fear having PP fall to them. At that point, they would feel inclined to take him because he is so good, but ultimately it is not what they really want.

However, there are going to be some folks willing to get him or possibly one of the QB's, although I think the best opportunity would be PP to trade down.

That being said, I think Green may be the only legit guy they want at six that could be left. Jones and his foot history make it really difficult to reach for him at 6, no matter how much logic is used. Here's the thing though, I have come around to Bowers. I think his knee is good to go and they like him, even if he is slightly bigger than Heck's supposed prototype 4/3 end. This was a guy who rated the top pick in the draft for quite awhile before the knee issue.

Bowers, Fairley, Watt and Jones are most likely within the short range trade down. I don't believe Quinn is in their plans at all, especially at six. My reasoning is not to hurt Solon's man crush for the boys in powder blue tights, but because Heck has made it known in his pressers that they can find DE's and fans don't need to panic.

I am thinking 75 to 80% trade down, with Bowers, Fairley, Watt and Jones the guys on their radar.

Retraction to this, they have the 41st pick. See Mock Thread

[Alo]

I don't think Gabbert goes in the top five.

[Vegasdogg]

Bill Parcells really, really likes him some Cam Newton. So that worries me a little about my prediction that only 2 QB's go in the 1st round, and none before 15, with Gabbert going first.

Oh well, I am sticking with that scenerio even if I am wrong, because after the fact when these two don't make it as career starters, I will still be correct about what should have happened.

[Anthony]

Mary Kay jus tweeted that a name to watch is Tyron Smith. Very much in play at #6. She also tweeted that she doubts the Browns take Jones at 6, would go with Prince first.

Jesus christ will tomorrow jus get here already.

[Vegasdogg]

Originally Posted by Anthony

will tomorrow jus get here already.

This has been a very mild offseason in comparison to the last few. LMAO!

[damajuki]

Originally Posted by Brown Warrior

Mocks are fun. You don't like mocks? I love mocks. I like the last second ones especially.

Look, I feel like I respond to this by saying the same thing: No, having two first round corners won't guarantee us a great pas defense anymore than it worked for the Bengals or Chargers.

If we have a great pass rush? It'll work. But if we have a great pass rush, we don't need to spend such high picks on corners. It's crazy.

Yes, I would hate it. I'm not afraid to admit it.

But on the mocks... just fun.

I don't care as much about the mocks, though I agree they are "fun" to a certain extent. Fun is relative, though.

I get what you're saying, shep, I do. But you never move from your stance. You SAY you do, but you really don't.

Meaning, I'm not CRAZY about two top 10 CBs either. I'm saying I can SEE it, based on how things fall out.

The only thing I HATE is getting shitty players. So, to me, taking a starter is always worth it over chasing some guy you HOPE will be a starter.

Let's be honest here. A good GM should be able to tell the difference between an ACTUAL football player and one he HOPES will be a football player. The difference is in how honest the GM is and how good the organization is at being honest.

We seem to have taken a step forward in the "honesty" department with this current brain trust so if they say PP is the guy, then he's the guy for me.

You seem to WANT Green or Jones to be the right guy WAAAAY too much for my tastes. I think that kind of thing is how GMs make bad picks.

But, again, you have at it. It IS fun. To a certain extent.

Oh, and thanks for the allergy tip, Ocon. I'm getting KILLED this year; f'in tree pollen is a bitch. I stepped into the garage for 10 seconds after the door was open all day and IMMEDIATELY the eyes lit up, the sneezing attack...crazy. Never been this bad before.

I took an Allegra right away and that seemed to help. I'll look into the Claritin thing too.

[YtownBacker]

Originally Posted by Vegasdogg

Bill Parcells really, really likes him some Cam Newton. So that worries me a little about my prediction that only 2 QB's go in the 1st round, and none before 15, with Gabbert going first.

Oh well, I am sticking with that scenerio even if I am wrong, because after the fact when these two don't make it as career starters, I will still be correct about what should have happened.

They may very well be 15 to 32 pick talent and in any other year they most likely would be going there. Because this year is what it is with no FA and a average QB class, at best, they get pushed toward the top.

Sad that a gu with a ton of question marks and a 3 year time frame to learn how to be a NFL could go #1.

You got a GM putting his career on the line for a kid who siad he wants to be an ICON. Not a great QB or a great football player, he wants to be an ICON and media star.

[Brown Warrior]

For what it's worth, Mike Mayock finally did his mock today... and he went with Julio Jones to the Browns as well (joining Kiper, McShay, Banks, and King). It's the clear Day Before Pick.

Grossi says Bengals can't pass on Gabbert and Browns take Green. I really like his "four things" here. This year, I think Grossi's thinking more clearly than an awful lot of people:

1. Think touchdowns: In my scouting report on the wide receiver position last week, my research found the Browns have scored 12 fewer touchdowns in each of the past two seasons than the NFL average of 39. Think about that. Just to catch up to the middle of the pack, they have to add 12 touchdowns to their season total -- almost one per game. Now, I believe the emphasis on an offensive-minded coaching staff will help. But they must add a player who can find the end zone without a GPS strapped to his wrist.

2. Head-to-head among the best: I realize most people have LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson being measured for his imminent bronzed bust in Canton. But consider these numbers before planning for his enshrinement. Georgia receiver A.J. Green faced LSU twice. Green had five catches for 99 yards and one touchdown in 2009 and three for 89 and one TD in '08. Alabama receiver Julio Jones played LSU three times. Jones had 10 catches for 89 yards and one TD in 2010, four for 102 and one TD in '09 and seven for 128 in '08. In those five games, Peterson was credited with 17 tackles, eight passes defensed and zero interceptions. I find those statistics very interesting.

3. Eye of the Bengals: I've maintained Cincinnati's actions with the No. 4 pick will affect the Browns more than any of the other teams ahead of them. The Bengals are said to really love Texas A&M linebacker Von Miller and Georgia's Green. My gut still says the Bengals will take a quarterback with their top pick. I'm in the minority and I'll probably go down in flames believing it.

4. Wheeler-dealer: Patriots mastermind Bill Belichick is the only GM-coach holding two picks in the first round (Nos. 17 and 28). The Patriots also own the first pick in the second round, No. 33, as a result of a trade with Carolina last year. Everyone expects Belichick to trade one of his picks for a No. 1 in 2012. Belichick perpetuates his annual draft-day largesse by constantly rolling one pick into the next draft. This is a luxury that only a team with a Hall of Fame-bound quarterback still in his prime can afford.

SHEP: Both Green and Jones won their one-on-ones with Teflon Pete. Hmm.

[Flugel]

Originally Posted by damajuki

Who gives a damn about the mocks at this point? Why would Jones suddenly be #6?

Shep, I get your point that its "crazy" to take PP because of Haden last year but the whole point of the draft is to stock your team with talent. Sometimes, you don't get a choice about WHICH talent at WHICH position at your pick.

Smart organizations stock their teams. It's really not that complicated in the top 10, or it shouldn't be. If you are in the top ten, it's because you have a dearth of overall talent. Reaching AT ALL is the SUREST way to end up back in the top ten again.

I don't give a damn if PP is a CB or not. If he's the highest-rated guy on the Big Board at 6, you trade down for value or YOU JUST TAKE HIM. Teams get better the better their talent pool.

On the tactical side, I REALLY don't buy that PP and Joe don't make a pass-rush better. I think those two on the field together give a D all KINDS of options. Good Lord, imagine playing mostly man coverage and forcing teams to game plan for TWO young, fast, talented corners? What the hell would be wrong with that?

Especially when the alternative is Eric Wright or the 32 year old legs of Sheldon Brown. Look no further than what Baltimore and the Jets did to making Wright the bullseye of their game plan and the scoreboard rewards for doing so. YES, we covered Edwards and Mason; but we couldn't cover Holmes and Boldin. I dare say we improve our sack volume if we can contest the quick 3 step drop throws better from our corners. When you can press a WR at the line of scrimmage with a 220 pound corner also sporting 4.3 speed - it's gonna HELP your pass rush not hurt it.

Since we're modeling our new era after Bill Walsh, in 1981 he drafted Ronnie Lott, Carlton Williamson and Eric Wright in 3 of the first 4 rounds. Aside from that, he added free agent Dwight Hicks to give them their starting secondary in their first SB that took place within the next 365 days. At the time, their best WR was a 10th round draft pick out of Clemson named Dwight Clark while their QB was some 3rd round draft pick with a first name Joe and a last name that escapes me. The dynasty began with Walsh going unprecedented to get his entire starting secondary in the span of 1 year. SF won 2 Superbowl Championships before they even drafted Jerry Rice in 1985 just to give you us an idea what solidifying a secondary can do to raise the compeitive value of a franchise.

As for Julio Jones, he was the #1 rated WR in the country coming out of high school. While AJ Green always got more love for walking into a better QB freshman year - it was Julio that was actually named the SEC Freshman of the Year. The next year Alabama broke in a brand new starting QB and Julio had some concentration lapses as a true soph. However, I thought he polished his game considerably as a junior facing great competition every week. Then he punctuated that with eye popping combine results on a broken foot.

From everything I've ever heard or read, you don't want a guy that has already played his best football. You want a guy continuing to get better that has a work ethic to perpetuate further growth(upside). More specifically, you want a guy that's driven instead of one that wants to be driven like Miss Daisey. I don't think I could stomach 1 more hotshot coming here feeling entitled for best football in the rear view mirror. This is what makes Julio very intriguing and worthy of serious 6th overall consideration IMO. Last but not least, Divas don't block people - Julio does! I feel bad the kid has a couple screws in his foot today; because that might be an anchor if the choice boils down to him or Peter's-son.

[Brown Warrior]

I think Peterson ends up being a safety anyway. His weakness is his hips and playing with this back to the QB. He only had 6 picks in his career... and he got beat by both Julio and A.J.

I think he's a really good corner. I would hold off on the bust in Canton. He's sort of become the "it guy" for draftnicks... but he's the draft's top corner and that's it.

I'm somewhat intrigued (and hopeful) that all the top draftnicks have shifted their picks to Julio. Nobody's claimed to actually know anything, but it's interesting. Mayock is the most tapped in... but Shefter and King certainly talk to a lot of people, and they both say it's a WR.

Terry Pluto LOVES Patty Pete.

[Greythan]

This year, I think Grossi's thinking more clearly than an awful lot of people

Code for: Grossi is thinking like Shep.

Shep, you are a classic. I love you man.

[Brown Warrior]

Originally Posted by Greythan

Code for: Grossi is thinking like Shep.

Shep, you are a classic. I love you man.

And I love you back.

But... give me a little break. If you felt like you'd really deeply considered something, really dug in and read and studied, and you felt like you had a strong opinion with logical backing... wouldn't you support the guys who did the same work and came to the same conclusion?

Honestly... 31st in points scored? 30th in passing? Unable to close game your defense kept you in? The history of corners not turning franchises around like people who score (or throw) TDs in today's league? The notion that Peterson might be "That Guy," the one draftnicks wanna praise because he's not a quarterback or pass rusher or left tackle so it makes them look cool... even though he didn't win his battles with either top receiver and wasn't a turnover machine?

I honestly think it's lucid thinking. He didn't get on the Peterson train, even when his colleagues at the PD did (Livingston got back off and went WR yesterday), even when readers berated him. He was all about DL but then considered all the question marks up high and depth later... and realized WR in one made the most sense.

I just think he had a reasonable POV he could rationally defend. I haven't heard one single compelling argument for taking Peterson other than old fashioned cliches.