Draft Things I Think I Know (For Everybody)...

[Brown Warrior]

Just watched "Path" (Tuesday)... and here's what I think I know:

1. Mayock talked about seeing the whole draft to fill your needs. For instance, it's assumed Denver will take Dareus... but it's such a deep 3-tech draft (Liuget, Austin, Paea, Jenkins, Nevis, Casey, McClain), why not take Peterson or Miller, other huge needs, THEN get the 3-tech at the top of 2?

That's why the Browns won't be taking a DT.

2. Mike Lombardi said these words: "The Browns will take a WR at #6." He didn't say he thinks... he said "will." That's the sense out there in draftnick land right now, and I'm hearing it from a lot of corners (Shefter, Kiper, Peter King, Grossi, etc.). It's what I want, which usually means the Browns won't do it... but I really think they'll take the WR first by some pretty simple logic: The need a #1 WR very, very badly and the chances of getting one later are just too slim.

DT? Pass rusher? The draft is deep. You could go rounds 2 and 3 there and get yourself THREE really good starters. Lombardi gave us Jones at 6 and then Paea at 37... and that's a really strong interior for our 4-3, huh?

3. If the Browns (or anyone) is looking for a potential #1 WR in early round 2? I think it has to be Greg Little. He's the only one with that kind of size, hands, and talent. Lombardi put me over the top: If we DON'T do what I expect, and go WR in one? It's gotta be Little early in two.

All the rest are role players.

4. Gosselin says Peterson might slide a little... but I don't see how. He suggested that the Niners would snatch up Gabbert, which I could see... and the Browns might go Jones... but who did that put in Arizona? I mean, if the top four were Newton, Dareus, Miller, and Green? If it plays out like that, in a way that puts Gabbert in SF? It means Arizona took Peterson.

Peterson's basement is 7... but he could go 2, 3, or 5. Not 6. I think Lombardi is right.

That's enough. Four things I think I know after a really entertaining "Path."

[Vegasdogg]

I truly feel the Browns are not going to take WR in the first round if Green is gone even though I'd take Julio Jones. I have heard Heckert say multiple times he doesn't think the WR's on this team got much of a chance over 2 seasons and most people outside think much differently than those on the inside. Unconventional but I do believe Heckert will bypass WR in the first few rounds. The team might go defense the first 3 picks. I feel strongly that these coaches feel they can coach up the group and wait to upgrade with the homerun hitter. I'm hoping they'd take Green or Jones, but Green isn't dropping and they may not take Jones. 6 is very high for WR and nothing - and I mean nothing - has proven that taking WR top ten is a good idea. I think people here may be unpleasantly surprised when they go no WR in rounds 1-3.

Also, I think the best friend of a young QB is not the WR but a strong D that takes the pressure of winning every game off his shoulders. Again this is maybe unconventional but I bet more people agree than you think - a great defense is Colt's best friend right now not a top WR.

We need less risk. I think Green is a sure thing. I like Jones but he has risk, and he already plays a position with high bust rates.

Just wanted to get that all on record two days before the draft.

Browns just might wait until after the third round for WR.

[slowmo411]

Originally Posted by Vegasdogg

I truly feel the Browns are not going to take WR in the first round if Green is gone even though I'd take Julio Jones. I have heard Heckert say multiple times he doesn't think the WR's on this team got much of a chance over 2 seasons and most people outside think much differently than those on the inside. Unconventional but I do believe Heckert will bypass WR in the first few rounds. The team might go defense the first 3 picks. I feel strongly that these coaches feel they can coach up the group and wait to upgrade with the homerun hitter. I'm hoping they'd take Green or Jones, but Green isn't dropping and they may not take Jones. 6 is very high for WR and nothing - and I mean nothing - has proven that taking WR top ten is a good idea. I think people here may be unpleasantly surprised when they go no WR in rounds 1-3. Also, I think the best friend of a young QB is not the WR but a strong D that takes the pressure of winning every game off his shoulders. Again this is maybe unconventional but I bet more people agree than you think - a great defense is Colt's best friend right now not a top WR. We need less risk. I think Green is a sure thing. I like Jones but he has risk, and he already plays a position with high bust rates. Just wanted to get that all on record two days before the draft. Browns just might wait until after the third round for WR.

+1

[Alo]

I bet the Broncos take Dareus. The buzz about them loving Peterson & Miller didn't start until this week. And in addition to being more talented the other 3-techs, Dareus possesses more versatility: he can play 1-tech (4-3 NT), even some base end.

Also, it's worth noting that 4-3 end talent really drops off after top 45 picks, perhaps the late 1st if there's a run on pass rushers. Not sure there will be ideal solutions at either end or tackle in the 3rd frame: Nevis would be awesome, but he could go earlier; Casey needs to get into better shape; McClain's solid but not spectacular.

Obviously, the team isn't going to be able to address all of its needs this weekend, but there is a clear opportunity cost of taking a WR (or CB) at #6 -- our d-line will be weaker.

[Greythan]

Which shows why using the word "know" even while hedging is a really silly thing to do this time of year.

Really... the only things we "know" right now are:

1) The Browns have a multitude of options with their draft;

2) There is no one clear-cut logic path (i.e., its not a slam dunk that they'll draft a WR); and

3) No one "knows" what they will do

[damajuki]

I'll be shep's huckleberry...

Things I know the day before the draft:

1. The Browns will not reach for a WR at 6. It's Green or it's not a WR.
2. If it's not Green, it has to be DL. Assuming Dareus is gone, that leaves Bowers, Fairley and Quinn.
3. Heckert is in love with speed guys off the end. The best risk/reward at 6 is Quinn. That's where I'd put my money.
4. If Peterson does slip to 6 then there's a dilemma between obvious need (DL) and obvious talent and somewhat of a need (CB). This is where the board wins out but I wouldn't be shocked to see PP if he's rated higher than the DL guys.

Finally, I know this: After 7 rounds, the Browns will come out of this draft with 1 WR, 3 DL, 2 DBs and 1 OL. Only question is when and where.

[Brown Warrior]

Good stuff, Veg... and well put. I'm on record: I think the Browns last-minute board only has three names they'd take at 6, and those names are Green, Quinn, and Jones. I'm buying the buzz that they're going WR and DL in some order in 1/2.

The LSU beat writer was on that silly Plain Dealer show and loved all over Peterson, but did allow that even a dominant corner affects only 12 plays a game... and because the Browns need a WR more than a corner (after Haden), he'd take either Green or Jones over Peterson.

His quote could've been mine: "They'd have more impact on the Browns than Peterson."

Also, the Gabbert to Cinci sentiment is building along with the notion that Quinn/Peterson go 5 and 7 in some order. The Cardinals are to the Niners what the Bengals are to the Browns, basically.

2011 mock draft, take five | ProFootballTalk

Originally Posted by Vegasdogg

I truly feel the Browns are not going to take WR in the first round if Green is gone even though I'd take Julio Jones. I have heard Heckert say multiple times he doesn't think the WR's on this team got much of a chance over 2 seasons and most people outside think much differently than those on the inside. Unconventional but I do believe Heckert will bypass WR in the first few rounds. The team might go defense the first 3 picks. I feel strongly that these coaches feel they can coach up the group and wait to upgrade with the homerun hitter. I'm hoping they'd take Green or Jones, but Green isn't dropping and they may not take Jones. 6 is very high for WR and nothing - and I mean nothing - has proven that taking WR top ten is a good idea. I think people here may be unpleasantly surprised when they go no WR in rounds 1-3.

Also, I think the best friend of a young QB is not the WR but a strong D that takes the pressure of winning every game off his shoulders. Again this is maybe unconventional but I bet more people agree than you think - a great defense is Colt's best friend right now not a top WR.

We need less risk. I think Green is a sure thing. I like Jones but he has risk, and he already plays a position with high bust rates.

Just wanted to get that all on record two days before the draft.

Browns just might wait until after the third round for WR.

[Brown Warrior]

Awesome, Huck. My Alamo: I'll be stunned if the Browns don't get one of the WRs or Quinn at 6. I'm of the mind that Green and Quinn are 1-2, so Jones might not actually be a factor. He's become the go-to pick by a ton of experts but I'm not entirely sure I buy it either.

If we go Quinn in one, I'd go Greg Little in two, DT in 3.

More than not wanting the Browns to commit so much to cornerbacks... I think it's been bullshit all along. I sincerely do. The notion of Peterson (or Amukamara) a year after Haden meaning as much as a pass rusher or #1 WR?

Not only don't I buy it, I don't think anybody really does. Makes as much sense as a LT at this point.

Originally Posted by damajuki

I'll be shep's huckleberry...

Things I know the day before the draft:

1. The Browns will not reach for a WR at 6. It's Green or it's not a WR.
2. If it's not Green, it has to be DL. Assuming Dareus is gone, that leaves Bowers, Fairley and Quinn.
3. Heckert is in love with speed guys off the end. The best risk/reward at 6 is Quinn. That's where I'd put my money.
4. If Peterson does slip to 6 then there's a dilemma between obvious need (DL) and obvious talent and somewhat of a need (CB). This is where the board wins out but I wouldn't be shocked to see PP if he's rated higher than the DL guys.

Finally, I know this: After 7 rounds, the Browns will come out of this draft with 1 WR, 3 DL, 2 DBs and 1 OL. Only question is when and where.

[OconRecon]

Anyone think there's a chance of Sanzenbacher (WR - OSU) on day 2?

McShay on ESPN just now projecting J. Jones for us in the 6 hole.

[Bronx Cheer]

My POOMA knowledge on the draft?

1) If both Green and Jones are there, a WR definitely will be taken. I would personally lean toward Green as the safer pick, but I think there is a chance the Browns might actually prefer Jones because of his physical play. With a beast like Hillis waiting to get screen passes, a monster run blocking WR would be nice.
2) If Gabbert is there at six, we will trade back and take either Jones, Quinn, or Bowers.
3) In rounds 2 and 3, we'll end up getting a DL and CB (most likely in that order).
4) Heckert is going to try to wheel and deal to get 3 starters out of this draft (he is praying Gabbert falls).
5) Marcus Gilchrist is going to be the second best DB to come out of this draft.

[grumpy_dinosaur]

Originally Posted by Bronx Cheer

My POOMA knowledge on the draft?

1) If both Green and Jones are there, a WR definitely will be taken. I would personally lean toward Green as the safer pick, but I think there is a chance the Browns might actually prefer Jones because of his physical play. With a beast like Hillis waiting to get screen passes, a monster run blocking WR would be nice.
2) If Gabbert is there at six, we will trade back and take either Jones, Quinn, or Bowers.
3) In rounds 2 and 3, we'll end up getting a DL and CB (most likely in that order).
4) Heckert is going to try to wheel and deal to get 3 starters out of this draft (he is praying Gabbert falls).
5) Marcus Gilchrist is going to be the second best DB to come out of this draft.

Except that's not knowledge it's speculation. The only people with knowledge are the ones in the browns' building. None of us know anything, we only hope we're right, and if we are then hey we made a nice hypothesis, but don't sell it as anything more, that's bogus man.

[Brown Warrior]

Originally Posted by Greythan

Which shows why using the word "know" even while hedging is a really silly thing to do this time of year.

Huh?

I think you missed the self-deprecating irony of the phrase, "things I think I know," a Peter King-ism. It's sort of like confusing "faith" with "knowing." The first actually demands the absence of the second... so people of faith don't actually know anything because then it wouldn't be faith.

But I'm really stoned, so...