Take your guess at the top ten

[heckofajobbrownie]

Place your bets everyone. If you go past ten picks you'll probably see trades and all sorts of stuff that messes it up. You can obviously see them in the top ten, too, but it's less likely because of the cost. So, here's my guess at the top ten. The storyline: Gabbert falls.

1. Carolina - Cam Newton
2. Denver - Marcell Dareus
3. Buffalo - Von Miller
4. Cincy - AJ Green
5. Cards - Patrick Peterson
6. Browns - Julio Jones
7. 49ers - Robert Quinn
8. Titans - Nick Fairley
9. Cowboys - Tyron Smith
10. Redskins - Prince Amukamara

And yes, I'm trying to throw some loops in here because it rarely goes like people think it will. My guess is that teams don't rate Gabbert that much higher than the guys like Ponder and Dalton and Locker and they're content to try again in round two or by trading back into the bottom of round one.

I don't think Gabbert is as good a prospect as Aaron Rodgers, and look how he fell.

[jimkanicki]

1. newton
2. peterson
3. miller
4. green
5. gabbert
6. dareus
7. jordan
8. fairley
9. t. smith
10. amukamara

[Alo]

1. Carolina - Cam Newton
2. Denver - Marcell Dareus
3. Buffalo - Von Miller
4. Cincinnati - A.J. Green
5. Arizona - Patrick Peterson
6. Cleveland - Julio Jones
7. San Francisco - Prince Amukamara
8. Tennessee - Nick Fairley
9. Dallas - Tyron Smith
10. Washington - Blaine Gabbert

[Riffer X]

Originally Posted by jimkanicki

1. newton
2. peterson
3. miller
4. green
5. gabbert
6. dareus
7. jordan
8. fairley
9. t. smith
10. amukamara

I went to school with Jim Kanicki's sons.

[Flugel]

1. Carolina - Cam Newton
2. Denver - Marcell Dareus
3. Buffalo - Blaine Gabbert
4. Cincinnati - AJ Green
5. Arizona - Von Miller
6. Cleveland - Patrick Peterson
7. San Francisco - Ryan Mallett
8. Tennessee - Nick Fairley
9. Dallas - JJ Watt
10. Washington - Julio Jones

Explanations of headscratchers above:
It's hard to believe Buffalo would return to that OLB/pass rusher thought after they've spun their wheels on Maybin and Clark Kent Merriman (with clean urine) regardless of how good Von Miller projects to be. They want that franchise QB or empty seats could be pointing to a move of franchise to either a very disinterested LA market that has yet to work or Toronto. Another HUGE factor is Jim Kelly and a group of investors are trying to prevent such a move with a plan to buy the franchise before Ralph Wilson turns 100 or doesn't wake up some morning. OLB/pass rusher prototypes in the top 10 haven't exactly provided job security in many places. If the potential new owner is a former QB that understood Buffalo didn't win dick counting on Bruce Smith off the edge before Kelly arrived, they better start thinking about tomorrow - tonight.

I'm taking a big risk thinking Harbaugh trusts Ryan's Mallett literally. That said, they have 2 things in common. They both got scholarships to Michigan for being elite talents and they both got discouraged in the direction that program went. Keep in mind, the system Harbaugh did best in at the pro level was Lindy Infante system he brought to Stanford. In case we forgot what that does for a slow footed QB - Bernie Kosar had all kinds of wonderful blitz busters in check downs or uniquely talented players crossing vacated zone blitz areas. Mallett had a slammin junior year where he only threw 7 INTs to 30 TDs that shouldn't be discarded in thorough research. I think Bobby Petrino had alot of similar things in his offense that Harbaugh likes to feature like an under-sized TE with great receiving abilities. Understanding great chemistry between QB and TE is an underrated plug for this QB for this Head Coach. The alternative is the 1 QB even Mike Martz couldn't do anything while we've lost count of head coaching careers buried there.

There's some really good OTs that can be had in round 2 since I don't see the next Anthony Munoz or Orlando Pace. JJ Watts-his-name can play inside and outside techniques. He can also block kicks or even give an Ivy League Grad Coach a TE for goal line offense. I think Tryon Smith is a good OT but when there isn't a consensus on who the best OT is - it's kind of tough for me to say reach for need at #9. Speaking of reach, I don't think Watt's-his-name is a reach at all.

[heckofajobbrownie]

In the end, I doubt the top ten are going to be without trades. It's probably going to end up looking nothing like this.

But who knows? That's why Draft Day is a national holiday.

...Draft Day is a national holiday, right?

[Brown Warrior]

Couple quick notes, then I'll try:

- Patrick Peterson is screaming from the mountain tops that he wants to play for Dallas. Wish kids wouldn't do that. He wants Dallas to move up for him.

- The potential trades being discussed are Houston moving up for Peterson and Washington trying to get all the way to #2 to get Gabbert. That suggests that, like Tom, they aren't so convinced that Buffalo and the Bengals would really pass on him. I disagree with Heck: As much as I like Ponder, I think Gabbert has star written all over him. A more mobile Matt Ryan. I'm a little vexed by the Dalton thing. He looks like a third rounder.

- NFLN and Farmer both flipped, giving Miller to Denver. I'm not buying it (4-3 team). Might be trade posturing or something.

- Adkins says the Browns love Peterson but probably don't have the sack (i.e., aren't crazy enough) to go through with two top 10 corners.

- Farmer joined Planet Earth giving Julio Jones to the Browns. I like it... so I'm literally terrified. I keep hearing Patty Pete's name in my nightmares.

1. Carolina: Newton (done)
2. Denver: Dareus
3. Buffalo: Miller (first key pick... because they could go Gabbert)
4. Bengals: Green (I'd go Gabbert, but all signs say A.J.)
5. Cards: Peterson (I'd go Gabbert again)
6. Browns: TRADE TO 'SKINS: Gabbert
7. 49ers: Quinn
8. Titans: Fairley (great value here)
9. Dallas: Smith (some Costanzo talk)
10. Browns: Julio Jones (they pulled it off, pick up a 2nd)

(Amukamara goes 13 to Detroit.)

[We need Tom Tupa]

So this is where all the draftniks have gone. Glad to have found you...

Here we go, with a projected trade (working off the the Boston Globe report that we have already talked to the Pats):

1. Newton
2. Dareus
3. Gabbert - they are desperate for something to cheer for in Buffalo
4. Green
5. Miller
6. The Patriots select Quinn
7. Peterson
8. Fairley
9. Smith
10. Jones
17. Browns take Bowers


EDITED once (and not for the last time)

[TheBestPlayersPlay]

Would love it if the Browns still managed to get Bowers with a trade down. Would be epic. Don't see him dropping to 17 though, unless there is real concern about his injury, which I am doubting there is.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see both Bowers & Fairley go in the top 10.

[heckofajobbrownie]

Next, if you want, have a guess at the 32 players that will be chosen in round one. This is perhaps the only way to do it when you don't know who is going to trade and when. Highest score wins.

I'll do mine when I get into the office.

[hiwaygal]

Originally Posted by Riffer X

I went to school with Jim Kanicki's sons.

Wasn't Kanicki the "sidekick" in Grease?


Listening to ESPN radio right now and whoever is talking is saying something about Carolina doesn't have to take a QB at #1....

[Bronx Cheer]

I am getting the feeling that Gabbert falls, so we'll trade out of six to a team looking to leapfrog SF.

1. Carolina - Cam Newton
2. Denver - Marcell Dareus
3. Buffalo - Von Miller
4. Cincy - AJ Green
5. Cards - Patrick Peterson
6. Redskins (from Browns) - Blaine Gabbert
7. 49ers - Robert Quinn
8. Titans - Nick Fairley
9. Cowboys - Tyron Smith
10. Browns (from Redskins) - Julio Jones

While I think it is less likely, the idea of trading with the Pats is fun to think about. I think it unlikely that the Browns would go all the way down to 17, but perhaps they trade down, then back up? This would be interesting, no?

1. Carolina - Cam Newton
2. Denver - Marcell Dareus
3. Buffalo - Von Miller
4. Cincy - AJ Green
5. Cards - Blaine Gabbert
6. Pats (from Browns) - Patrick Peterson
7. 49ers - Robert Quinn
8. Titans - Nick Fairley
9. Cowboys - Tyron Smith
10. Browns (from Redskins) - Julio Jones
17. Redskins (from Browns with a 2/3 pick) - Jake Locker
24. Browns (from Pats with #17) - Heyward/Clayborn/Sheard
37. Browns - Paea

The problem with this scenario is, of course, the fear of not being able to bounce back up high enough to get Jones.