Colt McCoy.. something to get excited about

[Sez.EJ]

I'm not a big stats guy.. Stats are arguably for losers and can be manipulated to say what you want or for different purposes.. But This is a comparison Rookie vs rookie.. completion percentages.

Colt McCoy 61% completion %.. quite impressive.. especially with the lack of experience at WR, and not getting ANY first team reps during the season.

OTHERS ROOKIES FOR COMPARISON

2010 - bradford.... 58% completion percentage,

2009 - Stafford... 53%......... Sanchez... 53%, Freeman... 54%,

2008 - Ryan... 61%, Flacco... 60%,

2007 - Edwards... 56%,

2006 - Leinart... 51%, Vince Young 66%

A COUPLE STUD QB ROOKIE YEARS

Elway... 47%,
Aikman... 53%, 1
P Manning... 56%,
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Just saying this bodes well. He has heart, saavy, accurate, gritty, moves well enough, knows where to put the ball..works like crazy.. and when you look at his history..most importantly.. HE WINS.. Not that this projects out to anything... But 61% is nothing to sneeze at for the situation he was in.. especially considering he was not getting ANY first team reps since he was never supposed to get on the field last year.. He's a cool cat.

[nmills]

WOW 61% completion percentage.....we must have some stud receivers

[Brown Warrior]

Yes, Watson was a "weapon," Mills (!). Shurmur's words. Certainly not the farging wide-outs.

McCoy's QBR was a so-so 75, but he looked really good before the ankle and shoulder fatigue. He really is a very accurate passer from about 20 in, on the move or in the pocket, and that's about 95% of NFL passes. He can throw without optimum set, which is great, too... and he anticipates and leads nicely.

In summary: His short game is terrific. His long game, at least last year, was most definitely NOT terrific. He has to make it part of his repertoire, some way, some how.

[YtownBacker]

What's good about rookie QBs is that they are only rookies for one year. The period between the end of their rookie year and the start of the second season is the biggest period of growth in their careers.

That to go along with both Heckert and Shurmur saying that they are pretty much set at WR with the new additions should mean increased offensive production and a better passing game.

Now, fix the depth at tackle and finish filling the obvious holes on the defensive side and we may be turning the corner.

[Vegasdogg]

Originally Posted by Brown Warrior

In summary: His short game is terrific. His long game, at least last year, was most definitely NOT terrific. He has to make it part of his repertoire, some way, some how.

It's going to take time. He doesn't necessarily need a deep ball right now. He needs to move the chains, beat the blitz, and score points. One needs to focus on the 25 meter target before hitting the 100 meter target. He doesn't need to be Aaron Rodgers or Joe Flacco or anyone else.

Besides, those long balls and spicy ropes at 25 yards are more about accuracy and anticipating the open man than arm strength. Arm strength without anticipation or accuracy is wasted anyways.

[Brown Warrior]

Extremely well put, Veg. Going downfield isn't about bombs... it's about the ability to get the ball 25-30 yards downfield 4-5 times a game in a way that makes it seem like a valid threat. Brees does it just fine, but he's probably the most glaring example of a guy who throws harder now than before.

But I disagree: I think we do need to have that threat in our arsenal, the possibility of successfully going downfield. But then I kinda agree, because it really doesn't have to be all that far downfield. The point is to keep the safeties back and keep all that yummy space open for quick slants in full stride.

I think the core of our offense will be about throwing a LOT (the Rams did), but very, very efficiently, using TEs, RBs, and WRs almost equally. But we need to wave that deep gun around just for effect, at least.

[Sez.EJ]

Shep: WE actually do have that deep threat on the roster. We just forgot in the midst of last years WR nightmare.

As a rookie Momass averaged 18.4 yards per catch. We were all drooling over how good he was going to be once he got some experience.. He dropped off last year.. but only TWO players in 2009 had a higher per catch average than Momass.. De Shawn Jackson, and Mike Wallace.. That's really good company... 3rd in the entire league.. That's no accident.

(I had to laugh 34 catches on 94 targets..Nice work DA ha ha ha)

So to say we don't have it is not accurate.. I think it/he was not properly utilized last year..and a revolving circus at QB did not do anything to help offensive continuity..

Also ..Dabol only passed deep when it was 3rd and 6 miles to go... It's easy to defend a longball when it's obviously coming. I could stop desean jackson if you tell me it's 3rd and 25 with some saftety help.. and trust me..I'm slow. I don't really see Colt's arm as the problem but Dabol's scheme last year. We saw Colt throw somegreat passes at that distance last year.. The 2 minute drill vs the jets he did it a couple times. Very exciting stuff.

I believe Momass can still be an explosive, big play guy.. He needs some work. not a mystery.

We all acknowledge his shortcomings...that does not mean they can't be overcome.

[DaBrowns41]

Charlie Frye completed 59.8% of his passes and then 64.1% in his second season.

Completion percentage is probably the second worst way to evaluate QB stats, QB Rating being the first.

I look more for YPA than anything, or at least some sort of correlation between CP and YPA.

For example, DA's YPA was fantastic, but his CP was whack.

For the record, McCoy's YPA was 7.1 last year which is quite respectable, especially given his weapons.

[Brown Warrior]

YPA and TD/INT are what QBR is all about, which is why I think it correlates as closely with winning as any stat in football. One of the big number crunching sites says YPA in itself is one of the most "meaningful stats" in football, but it really doesn't factor in turnovers.

But I agree that completion percentage alone isn't all that meaningful. David Carr had a year where he completed a really high percentage, but they were all dumpoffs and he was horrific downfield.

[DaBrowns41]

Originally Posted by Brown Warrior

YPA and TD/INT are what QBR is all about, which is why I think it correlates as closely with winning as any stat in football. One of the big number crunching sites says YPA in itself is one of the most "meaningful stats" in football, but it really doesn't factor in turnovers.

But I agree that completion percentage alone isn't all that meaningful. David Carr had a year where he completed a really high percentage, but they were all dumpoffs and he was horrific downfield.

YPA is only 1/4 of the equation.

But YPA and CP percentage correlation seems to have a decent amount of success in rating QB's.

[Flugel]

Originally Posted by Brown Warrior

YPA and TD/INT are what QBR is all about, which is why I think it correlates as closely with winning as any stat in football. One of the big number crunching sites says YPA in itself is one of the most "meaningful stats" in football, but it really doesn't factor in turnovers.

But I agree that completion percentage alone isn't all that meaningful. David Carr had a year where he completed a really high percentage, but they were all dumpoffs and he was horrific downfield.

Good point. Where does McCoy rank alltime in terms of winning percentages for all Division IA QBs? 1st. If Sipe could defy all the odds against him when the concern passes were gonna fly like kites - I think McCoy has a stronger arm than the 175 pound Brian Sipe had in an ERA that favors QBs while handcuffing DBs.

David Carr never adapted to the speed of the NFL. Ironically, his first game was his best vrs the Dallas Cowboys when he connected on a deep pass that didn't REQUIRE him to read the field. It was a 7 step drop and throw to an area. Kind of like Quinn's day in sun/Pontiac Dome when he had time to throw a deep timing pattern to an area of the field and he connected on a bomb to MoMass. Asking either kid to READ progressions and hit the hot route in stride was overhwleming and unrealistic. Consequently, chains weren't moved consistently enough to create better opportunities.

In this day and age, I like a QB that becomes his best when the shit hits the fan and he's gotta improvise outside of pocket. Sipe was NEVER fast but very elusive because there was a vastly underrated pocket presence he had adjoined with accuracy, confidence and poise. That's why he erased countless 4th quarter deficits. It wasn't ever by accident. There's the making of a league wide MVP from a guy sooooo many fans and NFL Execs worried more about arm strength from the 13th round draft pick. Hew threw for over 4000 yards when it was WAY MORE DIFFICULT during the Mel Blount era where DBs embraced WRs like prom dates downfield. Mike Phipps was drafted for arm strength and prototypicals that had everyone drooling about ownign all those passes 25 yards and more. Problem? He wasn't wired for improvise or NFL speed reading to move the chains enough to utilize that 25 yards and over asset we thought we needed so badly. Isn't that a history lesson SHOWING us what wins and what cannot win in CLEVELAND? The NFL workout criteria has fooled alot of teams into reaching for Jeff George, Alex Smith, David Carr, Jamarcus Russell, Kyle Boller, JP Losman, Patrick Ramsey, Akili Smith, Rex Grossman, etc. NONE of those guys got to go to wonderful protections upfront to look ANYTHING like the hassle free workout criteria where their isn't a hand up in QBs face hurrying the throw and harassing the release. It asks nobody for a split second decision under duress to see who has poise and who turns into Trent Dilfer.

BEFORE, we get off on the beaten path of debating yesterday to today - my ONLY reason for the Sipe mention is to clearly illustrate WHY I'm not worried about Colt McCoy. I have 2 examples of throws over 32 yards that hit his well covered Texas receivers in stride in that Sipe Part 2 thread to show this won't be an issue before Lake Effect climate neuters both passing games on Sundays in November and December.

We'll be okay with this. ANOTHER reson we can't throw deep has been team speed. When you hear Pollyneedsahaircut runs a 4.35 - who do we have outrunning that to where we risk the time it takes for a QB to take a 5-7 step drop vrs the Dick LeBeau zone blitz schemes? Last year we tried this, and MoMass made a presnap read blitz adjustment that shortned his route and our rookie QB threw deep to Polly who was the only one waiting in the predestined area of the throw. The critics want to say - "see there's the accuracy issue on a deeper throw." Ummm, no that was a timing to an area pattern where our receiver didn't make the same pre-snap read the QB made. That can make a QB look bad. In fairness, I don't know who made the wrong read. And this is WHERE the design of the WCO CHANGES us from being a passive read the defense with reaction-based throws to an aggressive spread of receiving routes infiltrating all different zones with 2 different blitz checkdown options. The QB still has to READ the progressions but he won't have to guess whether each of his WRs are going to make prenap read adjustments in the passing tree. TOO MANY guys making decisions leads to too many chances for QB and receivers to be on the wrong page. If you look at Pittsburgh, they don't give you time for DEEP passing game stuff especially when Polly is healthy so you HAVE to move the chains with short game ball control stuff and try to set that up with playaction once you tire their legs out some.

ALOT of experienced offensive coaches like Shurmur are reluctant to throw deep when they have a young group of WRs and a rookie QB. It's SMART because so much can go wrong. That said, how often did Philly refrain from throwing deep when Surmur was McNabb's position coach? There's reasons a guy like Shurmur does what he does. ALOT of it is knowing his personnel enough to maximize their efficiencies. Bradford can go over the top when he has the golden goto matchup. St Louis had so many injuries to their WRs that they went with Canadian Football caliber starters. Amendola was an admirable overachiever; but I can't see anyone thinking post season dreams considers him anything more than a #4 WR. If St Louis didn't keep losing starter after starter, he wouldn't have even been that 3rd WR on their team under a .500 winning percentage. I'd see him as a Brian Brennan type best case scenario.

[Brown Warrior]

You're a bigger Sipe fan than I am. I think he's a bit of an urban legend with so-so career numbers and two good years in his entire career... plus a penchant for throwing a ton of interceptions. Never won a playoff game and isn't really a great example of anything but a fun year for being a Browns fan. Jim Zorn did a lot more, as far as small, weak-armed QBs.

But... he's very handsome, as Hiway will attest (!).

Tom, I'm glad you feel good and I feel hopeful, but McCoy has to up his deep game to a level where it's at least a threat... or we'll be like that post-injury Kosar team where they put 11 guys within five yards of the line. It was ugly. He has to hit passes 25 yards from the line with some authority and then the safeties have to stay home.

He was really bad downfield last year. That won't work.