Are You READY???

[Brown Warrior]

For the record: Floyd turns 30 before the season starts... but he is indeed a young 30 who only became a regular a few years ago. And being 30 is actually a good thing when the average age of a Browns' WR is about 12.

Still like the Lance Moore idea a ton. And Steve Smith. Don't hate MSW.

[BernietheKid]

Versatility Encompasses Hagg
		By Don Delco OBR Browns Reporter Posted Jul 19, 2011 Browns’ 7th-round pick Eric Hagg was a jack-of-all-trades at Nebraska. 0 Comments
The Nebraska Cornhuskers may have found the antidote to stopping the spread offenses in college football. They called it the “Peso” defense. One of the newest players on the Cleveland Browns’ roster, Eric Hagg, could be credited as a founding father. Last April, the Browns selected Hagg with their final pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. Hagg (6-foot-1, 209 pounds), who was listed as a safety, was taken with the No. 248 overall pick in the seventh round. Toward the end of the 2009 season, Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini and the Cornhuskers’ defensive coordinator, Carl Pelini, formed the Peso defense. “They wanted to play a base nickel defense,” BigRedReport.com’s Bryan Munson said. “They wanted to run a linebacker off to play more against the spread offenses in the Big 12. They didn’t want a guy as versatile as Eric Hagg off the field. They wanted him to stay on the field.” So, with the introduction of the Peso defense, Hagg stayed on the field and strived in that defensive formation, Munson said. “Eric’s biggest strength is his versatility,” Munson said. “There wasn’t a position, from outside linebacker to all the way back to the secondary, where Nebraska wasn’t tempted in saying Hagg didn’t have a chance to play there.” Hagg’s blessing is also a curse. Think: Jack of all trades, master of none. “The position I played at Nebraska was the nickel position,” Hagg said last April. “Most teams say it was the drop-down safety. I would assume that I would be able to play corner and safety, but it really depends on what the coaches want me to do and I will work at what they want me to do.” As for how Hagg’s talents project to the professional level, he does not easily fit as an NFL safety, cornerback or outside linebacker. “He doesn’t run as well as you’d want as a nickel back,” Munson said. “At times he isn’t a sure tackler and he also struggles against faster receivers. He will make that up with his great football intelligence that a lot of guys don’t have and, while he doesn’t have great straight-line speed, he makes up for his shortcomings with his athleticism.” At Nebraska, Hagg played in 48 games and last season he had five interceptions. The last two seasons in which Hagg started all 28 games, the Cornhuskers defense was among the best in the nation. Last season, Nebraska was fifth in pass defense and ninth in scoring defense. In 2009, the Cornhuskers were the best in the nation in scoring defense, pass efficiency defense and tied for second in sacks. “Arguably, the last two seasons Eric Hagg was No. 1 or No. 2 overall in order of importance of the Nebraska defense,” Munson said. “That’s saying something considering how well they played as a unit.” Before Hagg settled in as the key to the Peso defense, he cut his teeth on special teams. That, according to Munson, is where Hagg can shine early and often in Cleveland. “When he was given responsibility, he came through in the clutch,” Munson said. “Especially on how responsibilities are increased at the professional level, he is a guy coaches can depend on to run down and stay in his lane. “He will get rave reviews for his willingness to try anything out. I have a feeling the Browns will do something like what Nebraska did and find a position that works for Eric. He can be a special teams guru, make a name for himself and then somewhere down the road an opportunity may present itself.”

Scout.com: Versatility Encompasses Hagg

[BernietheKid]

Free Agents You Meet in Hell

A look at the NFL players whom front offices should avoid.

By Bill Barnwell
POSTED JULY 18, 2011

Speculating on NFL free agents is a risky business. With 18 years of the modern free-agency system in the books, you would think teams and their front offices would know whom to avoid. But year after year, contracts whose net worth rivals the GDP of several developing countries are given out to players who have little to no chance of earning out that money.

For general managers, free agency is a minefield. One misstep can cost you your job, your livelihood, and sometimes your soul. (How else would you describe the existential pain of sitting next to Matt Millen in the commentator's booth?) But never fear! We come bearing information that can help save wayward general managers from themselves. When evaluating NFL free agents, there are certain archetypes that stand out as particularly bad bets. Avoid the following types at all costs.

Without further ado, we present the free agents you meet in hell.

The Veteran Running Back

After a season that saw unheralded backs like Arian Foster and Peyton Hillis break out with elite numbers, it should be clear to NFL teams that running backs are mostly fungible properties. That doesn't appear to be the case. The Broncos, for one, have been vocal about wanting to add a running back in free agency, compounding their mistake to waste a first-round pick on Knowshon Moreno two years ago. It's hard to imagine they're the only interested party.

Spending more than a million dollars or so on a running back in free agency, though, has mostly been a fool's errand. Last season, the Bears and Chiefs gave free-agent backs Chester Taylor and Thomas Jones, respectively, a combined $10 million for the 2010 season. They were the two least productive running backs in football. The Eagles gave Mike Bell $1.7 million and dealt him to Cleveland halfway through the year. They also re-signed hybrid back Leonard Weaver, only for Weaver to suffer a gruesome knee injury in Week 1. Of the veteran backs who switched teams, only LaDainian Tomlinson approached even a passable level of play. Meanwhile, Danny Woodhead, Ryan Torain, and LeGarrette Blount all bounced around the waiver wire for peanuts.
This wasn't just a 2010 thing, either. Virtually every outlay given to a veteran back in free agency has failed. Derrick Ward got $6 million in guaranteed money from the Buccaneers in 2009 and lasted one year. His former teammate with the Giants, Brandon Jacobs, re-signed with the team and lost his starting job a year later. During the 2007 offseason, Ahman Green got $6.5 million in guaranteed money for a total of 144 carries in two years with the Texans. The Broncos passed on Green to sign Travis Henry, who got $12 million in guaranteed money and ran for 691 yards and four touchdowns before the team released him to a life of child support payments and drug trafficking. By comparison, the Raiders got off lucky by giving Dominic Rhodes $2.5 million to produce 75 below-average carries. And they signed him only because their $17.8 million investment in LaMont Jordan after the 2005 season proved to be a great way to get 3.8 disgruntled yards per carry. Edgerrin James made that look good, running for 3.6 yards a pop while picking up $25 million from the Cardinals during his three years with the team. James was benched during the team's 2008 NFC championship season for a fifth-round pick making $430,500, Tim Hightower.

The counterexample every GM will use to try to convince themselves that things will work out is Michael Turner, but even the six-year deal with $15 million in guaranteed money that he got doesn't look all that great any more. After a superb 2008, Turner suffered through injuries in 2009 and had a below-average DVOA¹ in 2010.

Considering Turner has been one of the league's worst receivers at halfback, he needs to be a remarkably efficient runner to justify his salary. Other success stories in free agency, such as Jamal Lewis (Browns, 2007) and Chester Taylor (Vikings, 2006), were also first-season wonders. The last time a team invested more than a million bucks in a free-agent back and got a consistent return was when the Bears snapped up Thomas Jones in 2004. Jones signed a four-year deal worth $10 million and promptly ran for nearly 3,500 yards and 22 touchdowns in three seasons with the Bears. Even if you like Turner more than the numbers do, that's two impact backs in the past seven free-agent classes. Running backs simply don't last long enough — running backs who put up a 1,000-yard season since 1983 have only been able to repeat that performance an average of 1.5 times over the remainder of their careers.

2011 free-agent examples: DeAngelo Williams, Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams

The Second/Third Wide Receiver In An Effective Passing Offense
If the past six years of Randy Moss' career have taught us anything, it's that a great quarterback and an effective scheme can be even more refreshing than a delicious Inta Juice. Context is king, but teams tend to fall in love with receivers who put up big numbers, even if they're catching passes in single coverage with three yards of space around them most of the time.

Let's call this the "Alvin Harper Rule". After three years as the starting receiver in Dallas across from Michael Irvin in the mid-'90s, the Buccaneers gave Alvin Harper a deal worth $2.65 million per season — just a smidge under the $2.9 million per season that Irvin was earning in the deal he had signed earlier that offseason. Harper caught a total of 65 passes and scored three touchdowns in two seasons before getting cut.
Virtually every time that a team has reached for a Harper-like secondary or tertiary target from an efficient passing offense, it's been burned. Think Az Hakim with the Lions. Antwaan Randle El with the Redskins. Kevin Curtis' run with the Eagles (before suffering from testicular cancer and temporarily leaving football). Donte' Stallworth's lone season with the Browns (before his manslaughter charge and release). Other qualifying players have seen their careers ended by injury, including David Givens (Titans) and Joe Jurevicius (Browns).

About the only positive is that these teams didn't trade away valuable draft picks before they got disappointed by their new receiver. Other franchises weren't so lucky. The Falcons dealt a first-round pick to the Bills for Peerless Price in 2003, and gave him a seven-year deal with a $10 million signing bonus. Price barely surpassed his 94-catch, 1252-yard performance from 2002 with the Falcons, but it took him two years to do it. The Falcons released him after that.

Again, there aren't many examples of players breaking the mold. Ed McCaffrey broke out after the Broncos signed him away from the Giants in 1994. Andre Rison had a big year after he moved from the Packers to the Chiefs in 1997, but he was really only a free agent because he was an insane person. Jerry Rice had a second act to his career with the Raiders after the 2000 season, but he's also the greatest player who ever lived. Teams are better off finding the good receivers in bad offenses.

2011 free-agent examples: Steve Smith (Giants), Malcom Floyd

The Defensive End Coming Off Of A Big Year
You pay for the outlier, you get the regression back towards the mean. It's a phrase tossed around a lot regarding baseball free agents, but it also applies to pass-rushers hitting free agency in the NFL. It's certainly not complicated: Teams who want to improve a dismal pass rush go after the guy with the biggest sack total. It worked for the Bears and Julius Peppers last year, right?

At best, the answer is "sort of." Peppers' sack total actually fell from 10.5 with Carolina in 2009 to eight with Chicago last year. And Peppers certainly helped create sack opportunities for the rest of the team while occupying double-teams, but the Bears' sack rate (pass attempts divided by sacks) actually fell from 6.6 percent in 2009 to 5.8 percent with Peppers last year. Meanwhile, Peppers' replacement in Carolina was Charles Johnson, who quietly picked up 11.5 sacks in his first year as a starter.
That's pretty consistent with the history of signing prominent pass-rushers like Peppers. When a team has signed or traded for a defensive lineman who produced 10 or more sacks in the season before hitting free agency, it has gotten only an average of 7.1 sacks from that lineman in the subsequent campaign. Only 26 percent of the linemen followed up their 10-sack season with another one in their first campaign with the new team. In fact, 20 percent of the ends weren't able to get past two sacks, thanks to injury or ineffectiveness.

It might seem unfair to knock injured players for a lack of production, but it's a subtle facet of free agency that some forget about. When you're paying top dollar for a talented player, part of the reason why is that he was able to stay healthy long enough to get paid. Past health doesn't guarantee much going forward. Consider Chuck Smith, who put up 58.5 sacks in eight seasons with the Falcons. The Panthers signed him to a five-year, $21 million deal before the 2000 season, ignoring an arthritic condition in his knee while pointing to the fact that Smith hadn't missed a game in three seasons. He played in a total of two games with Carolina before his knee forced him to retire. The Panthers replaced him, consequently, by drafting Peppers with the second pick of the 2002 draft.

There's one additional piece of counterintuitive advice: Stay away from the proven pass-rushers and lean towards what might look like the flashes in the pan. If we separate these pass-rushers into guys who had hit 10 sacks multiple times before leaving and guys who had achieved that level just once, the latter group actually outproduces the proven veterans. They averaged 9.1 sacks in their first season with their new teams, while the veterans hit an average of just 6.3 sacks. The potential flashes-in-the-pan were naturally younger, which obviously matters when you're paying for future performance.

2011 free-agent examples: Jason Babin, Charles Johnson

The Veteran Steelers Defender
Here's a good rule of thumb in the NFL: You're not smarter than the Pittsburgh Steelers. Nobody does a better job of drafting and developing talent than the Steelers, and outside of the Eagles, nobody is more confident about letting their veterans leave while creating opportunities for new talent to come through. That goes double on defense, where the mind of Dick LeBeau is arguably the unit's most valuable asset.
We went through the past 10 seasons and identified every time a regular starter on the Pittsburgh defense left the team in free agency. Of the 14 players, eight lasted only one season or less with their new teams. Just two of the defenders — linebacker Joey Porter and safety Chris Hope — made the Pro Bowl after leaving the Steel City.

Player	Pos	Age	What Happened With His New Team?
Jason Gildon	LB	32	Cut in training camp by Buffalo
Levon Kirkland	LB	31	Lasted one season in Seattle
Earl Holmes	LB	29	Cut after one season
Joey Porter	LB	29	Flopped before having monster 2008 season, left Miami a year later
Chad Scott	CB	31	Two seasons as a slot corner in New England
Dewayne Washington	CB	32	Started one season for Jacksonville
Brent Alexander	S	33	Spent two seasons as Giants' starting safety
Kimo von Oelhoffen	DT	35	Lasted one year with Jets
Kendrell Bell	LB	27	Signed to a big contract by Kansas City, but benched after two years of play
Clark Haggans	LB	31	Has started for past two years on ugly Arizona defense
Larry Foote	LB	29	One season as Detroit's starting MLB before returning to whence he came
Deshea Townsend	CB	35	Fill-in for Indy last season
Chris Hope	S	26	Five years as starting safety for Tennessee
Bryant McFadden	CB	28	Made it through one season in Arizona before getting traded back to Pittsburgh

The list gets a little better if you go back through the mid-'90s, when players like Rod Woodson and Kevin Greene continued to play at a high level after they moved out of Pittsburgh, but it's clear that investing in defenders whom the Steelers no longer want has been a good way for teams to waste their money.

2011 free agent example: Ike Taylor

Bill Barnwell is a staff writer for Grantland. Follow him on Twitter at @billbarnwell.

Bill Barnwell on NFL free agents whom you meet in hell - Grantland

[BernietheKid]

Redskins, Eagles expected to be among free-agent spenders

Published: July 19, 2011 at 01:03 p.m.

Updated: July 19, 2011 at 02:03 p.m.


NFL.com news: Redskins, Eagles expected to be among free-agent spenders

[Alo]

Originally Posted by Bronx Cheer

Hey, MSW is a nob. I get that.

I also get that the only reason we can sign him is because he is a nob.

Again, not advocating we sign him, per se. If we go the veteran FA route, I just would rather have him than Lance Moore.

Couldn't we structure a FA deal such that instead of a signing bonus we loaded up on relatively high salaries for years one and two? That would allow us to allocate money against the cash expenditure floor and "overpay" the FA enough to get them interested in Cleveland. It also would minimize risk for hit or miss guys like MSW.

I guess that could work. Ultimately, his nobbishness would make me hesitant to pull the trigger, but he could be another caveat guy: Steve Smith if he's healthy, MSW with the right deal, etc.

Originally Posted by Brown Warrior

For the record: Floyd turns 30 before the season starts... but he is indeed a young 30 who only became a regular a few years ago. And being 30 is actually a good thing when the average age of a Browns' WR is about 12.

I like Floyd, but he's a guy who would have made a lot more sense in '08: he's not a WCO WR.

[YtownBacker]

Originally Posted by Bronx Cheer

@YTown-

I was in your camp until word started coming out about a salary floor. This floor is based on actual cash payments, no prorated bonus numbers and the like. Thus, we've got a ton of cash to spend and no high priced rookies or our own FAs to spend it on.

From what I understand, we have to spend the money somehow and only a pittance of it will be absorbed by us extending/resigning our more desirable players.

So how do we spend it? My take is to do everything you can to find at least two new starters on D (preferably FS and WSLB, but I would even accept LDE and MLB), two rotation types for the line and linebackers, and a nickel back.

On O, we need a RT and line depth, especially at both tackles. Get that pronto.

Funny thing is, even with that long shopping list we might have a big problem in meeting our salary floor

That very well could be the difference as some are reporting (actual cash vs prorated payments). That would make sense. My point is that I'm not against improving our roster as much as we can, I'm only saying what Heckert has repeatly said and continually says the team isn't going to jump into FA with both feet. I was at Firestone CC at the golf outing when they were interviewing him and he didn't stutter about not going all out in FA. He specifically stated that there are a few guys that they got an eye on that they may talk to but don't expect a lot action. That's from his mouth, not mine. That's my point.

He knew his cap situation then so I can't see where this floor concept is taking him by surprise. I think they might spend a hunk of money getting their core guys under long term contracts so they don't walk in a year or two. That bonus money up front would be actual cash I would guess. The way they structure the contracts of the draft picks could eat into that cap money also as would signing our own FAs before they hit the market.

I do think they might go after a couple nice young FAs but again, being Cleveland we will have to overpay but up front money could make a difference. I could see a FS, DE or a LB. I could even see a WR, not a big name one and I don't want to see Sims-Walker here either. Complete tool I agree. My take is that Diva WRs are looking for a better situation then Cleveland because they will get the money no matter where they go. So, do we overpay a middle of the road WR or develop our own? That isn't the case with a FS, DE or LB because we don't have the guys to develop.

Hell, I'd love to see a Rudd, Floyd, Johnson or Edwards come here but I don't see it happening. I see guys like Mikell, Posluszny or Victor Abiamiri. I also think they will be looking more for depth then overpaying veterans who are looking for a last big payday.

It will be interesting but I think Shep is setting himself up for another big letdown like he does on most draft days. That said, I'd be happy to be wrong.

[Brown Warrior]

"Heard Free Agent James Jones (Green Bay WR) today on NFL Radio. Afterwards, Schein and Gannon (ath-a-letic, auffense) both said that he would be an ideal fit in Cleveland."

- OBR

"Peter King visited the set of NFL Total Access today. When Fran Charles asked who might (or should) land Plaxico, Peter said the Rams or the Browns.

He ended saying, "You're not going to pay him a lot of guaranteed money anyway ... If I were Colt McCoy I'd be saying, 'Please, let's give this guy a chance.'"

- OBR

Just pointing out: In the world at large, it's generally assumed that nobody could possibly be more WR starved than the Browns. Remember: When the top 65 WRs were ranked, Massoqoui was our highest rated... at 63. We were the lowest ranked overall.

That's reality.

[YtownBacker]

Dude, like usual you set your self up for a big letdown. Peter King should have listened to Heckert when he specifically said he wasn't interested in Plaxico.

That said, I don't want James Jones or Sims-Walker and I don't care if our receivers weren't ranked in the top 100.

Does playing in a run offense with three different QBs, with a game plan to throw to the TE and RB when they weren't pounding the ball up the middle really mean our WRs suck. You can't really charge a guy with a crime if he wasn't even at the scene.

Really man.........................Hillis and Watson were the targets of that pathetic offense and all the WRs were decoys. Does it really make the Browns hunger starved in the real world if they failed to use an asset on offense.

Really.....................you are smarter then that. I'm sure you watched the same games as the rest of us last year and bitched about Daboll the same as us. When you throw the ball to a guy 2 or 3 times a game he isn't going to put up the stats or be on Sports Center.

BTW, aren't you the guy that always was saying that QBs make WRs. But again, that was before you went on this WR fetish. So, I guess now it's the WR that makes the QB or something.

Hell, I hope we land Sidney Rice and Vincent Jackson. But, you know it isn't going to happen. Maybe a Santana Moss or Mark Clayton type of pick up at best but MoMass and robo will be on the roster and whomever we pick up will hamper the development of Little and keep Mitchell on the bench like last year. Then you have Cribbs who will be on the roster as a WR also as the #4 WR because they can't figure out what to do with him. They will all be there in the opener against Cincy because you don't cut a prospect who really hasn't had the chance to develop.

So, no matter what Peter King or OBR says, the Browns will basically go with what they got because they don't really know what it is they have yet.

I'd say we will be more active looking at FS, DE and LB. WR will be an after thought unless someone out there falls in love with Cleveland winters and a franchise still in flux.

I just can't understand why you would rather listen to some sports journalist from out of town rather then what the GM of the Browns is saying. It's not fun watching you get yourself all pumped up and then be kicked in the stomach and thrown back into reality.

Sorry, but I'll take a wait and see because I hear what the front office is saying and the national pundits are out there just trying make news. They may think we need to add a WR and you may think we need to add a WR but the only thing that matters is if Heckert and Shurmur think we should add one.

I hope you are right and we will grab some real talent in FA, on both sides of the ball. Maybe Heckert is just playing us or being careful not to let us down hard. I'm sure he knows that getting top FAs to come to Cleveland won't be easy even if you want to overpay them.

[Anthony]

Honest to God, Ytown could NOT have said it any better. Do not waste money this year. We aren't going to the super bowl. Let's see what C Mitch and company can do and let's not hinder Greg Little's development.

I'm a fan of BW. Prolly from our Cavs Draft talk, but Ytown is dead on.

Oh and it feels good to be back and to answer the question, I am sooo fuckin ready!

[nickers]

Im with Ytown on this one. Why spend our money, or try to spend money on WR's that really dont want to come here. Id rather go after UDFA Sanzenbacher. Save that money and upgrade FS ,DE, and RT in FA.

[Brown Warrior]

I'm not saying the debate isn't valid, guys. I'm saying it's tough to rationalize NOT shopping for WRs if you're the Cleveland Browns, with the most undistinguished corps of WRs in the entire NFL.

If Robiskie can't get open and Little isn't ready, get ready to draft Luck or Barkley in 2012. If all McCoy does is dump off to running backs and TEs, we're gonna start hearing the Charlie Frye talk, or the Trent Edwards talk.

Why? Because either the WRs are good enough or they aren't. If they aren't, we're fat with cash and there are a lot of guys out there who could help so there are no excuses. If they ARE good enough? It's all on Colt McCoy. His tryout would've been extra long for a third round pick. Thanks for trying. Wanna be a backup here or elsewhere?

McCoy himself slipped up before the draft and said he'd like a WR... hell, he'd like TWO! Then he backpedaled and said he likes the current guys but you can always get better. I mean, you can always dream that your sixth round pick or UDFA is gonna turn into Marques Colston. But those are hopes and dreams, not plans.

It's a passing league, period... and we have a VERY young and VERY unproven group of WRs. Our most physically talented WR didn't play football anywhere last year and has ONE year of WR under his belt at the college level. Our second most physically talented WR fell to round 6 and is seen as a bit of a project.

And then we have Robiskie and Massoqoui who, for all excuses about the QB carousel and bad offense, did play very poorly most of last year. Robo came on in a minor way later in the year but it was hardly a matter of "breaking out." He was so-so instead of invisible.

It's not a great situation for a very young QB, which is what you read about the Browns at the national level, where there's no Kool-Aid being served. I'm talking about adding ONE GUY, not three. Maybe it's Lance Moore or Steve Smith for the slot (Smith could use a light workload for a year). Maybe it's that gamble that could yield huge results, like Sims-Walker or James Jones (I like the latter).

I don't believe any of these guys cost Sidney Rice money (and I'd love to get Sidney Rice)... and we certainly have enough to spend. None would prevent us from getting Mikell, Edwards, Clabo, and a couple LBs. We're fat as shit.

Panthers lead list of teams on the hook with new projected salary floor - Shutdown Corner - NFL*Blog - Yahoo! Sports

Alo explained that the "cap floor" will be about real cash, not phony stuff like cap dings for money not really being paid to cut players. He says the fact is that the Browns are gonna have a lot of spendin' to do, Lucy.

So again: If the Browns don't need a WR... who does? By anybody's rankings, we have the 32nd ranked WR corps in the league. I have lots of hope for Little, Mitchell, and Massoquoi. I sincerely do. But I would sure as hell like to give McCoy one reliable veteran who isn't a back or TE.

Just one.

[TheBestPlayersPlay]

I have to agree with BW on this one. Our WRs very well may be ...and probably are able to do well in a WCO ...WRs, even mediocre ones often flourish in it. That being said, we better be damned well sure we have a competent WR for Colt to throw to this season, superbowl or not. It can only be a detriment to Colt's confidence amongst other issues if all he has are a bunch of below average WRs to toss the pill to. He needs some talent catching the ball that will allow him to maximize and improve upon his own abilities as a QB.