McCoy and Passing Game in 2011

[Brown Warrior]

First, the benchmarks have changed:

The top 12 passers in the NFL were:

Brady (111)
Rivers
Rodgers
Vick
Ben
Freeman
Flacco
Cassel
Schaub
Manning
Ryan
Brees (91)

It's glaringly clear that QBR over 90.0 is the new "Mendoza Line" for contention, with very, very few exceptions. Cutler wasn't all that far behind (86), BTW.

The average completion rate for these guys who lead competitive teams was about 65%, which would stun anybody time travelling from 1975. Even crazier? The TD/INT ratio goal used to be 2/1. Now the average of these top 12 was more like 3/1. YPA, about 7.5.

That's THE AVERAGES for the top 12: 65%, 3/1 ratio, 7.5 YPA. Probably gets you in the high 90s, I'm thinking.

Teams outside this top 12 were also mostly outside the playoffs and outside of contention, which has been true just about every year this millennium.

That's why I say the Browns can have a number of failings, but the W/L record will mostly depend on McCoy, Shurmur, and the passing game. If he can get up into the top 12-14 in QBR, the team will win games even with other shortcomings. No doubt.

As we've said, Warner's Cards and Manning's Colts did little well BUT throw the ball and made it all the way to the Super Bowl. Last year's Patriots were almost exclusively about Tom Brady's ability to succeed with no running game, no big name left tackle, and no #1 WR... hence the MVP.

A lot of other things matter, but mostly because of how they affect McCoy and his QBR: If teams are forced to respect Hillis and the running game, it'll help McCoy. If the defense can prevent the offense from facing big deficits and becoming one dimensional, it'll help McCoy.

Assuming McCoy gets to 450 attempts (almost all good teams do), 7.5 YPA would be somewhere in the ballpark of 3,400 yards. I'd like to see him near the bottom of the INT% ratio, because this offense is about accuracy and efficiency, so we shouldn't be turning the ball over.

That's what we'll need to do to win football games.

[Brown Warrior]

Here's another interesting stat. Here are the teams that threw for fewer than 3,300 yards:

Carolina
Arizona
Kansas City (playoffs)
Cleveland
Chicago (playoffs)
Jacksonville
Minnesota
Tennesee
Buffalo
Oakland
Jets (playoffs)
Rams

3 of the 12 teams that threw for under 3,300 yards made the playoffs: Bears, Jets, and Chiefs.

[Sez.EJ]

Jets were in the championship 2 years in a row too. Passing is important..but not an end in itself.

[golfer704u]

Well Colt was at 101.7 QBR, 60.9 % , 4-1 TD/int and 6.9 YPA in the pre-season. So it's a good start.

I don't think THIS YEAR Colt needs to hit the numbers you mentioned to be considered the long term answer though. I do agree that by the time we are true playoff contenders, he will need to be at the upper end of those numbers. IF he reaches 3500 yds and 65% completion % this year, we will be fighting for a playoff spot in september.

However again, where I caution you is, just because he doesn't reach those numers this year, under a new system, a huge recent loss on his OL, WR that you say suck, that doesn't mean we need to be looking towards getting some "Luck" in the draft.

I'd be prefectly content with numbers just under 3000 yds, above 60% %, and 2-1 TD/int on a 6-8 win team.

[Sez.EJ]

Golfer: Nice job keeping things in perspective.. Those teams with elite QB's..also have pretty good talent AROUND the qb and on Defense....along with depth.. most of which..we don't have.

[grumpy_dinosaur]

[golfer704u]

Originally Posted by Sez.EJ

Golfer: Nice job keeping things in perspective.. Those teams with elite QB's..also have pretty good talent AROUND the qb and on Defense....along with depth.. most of which..we don't have.

But I do agree with Shep's main point in that , if we ever want to see a Super Bowl trophy in Cleveland, Colt will have to reach those numbers eventually. I just think many fans expect too much too quickly on many fronts from many players.

[Brown Warrior]

Good stuff, Golf. My point really isn't that Colt has to leap into the top five this year to be considered the answer (hell, I'm almost convinced now)... but that we won't be winning much of anything until he IS around those kind of numbers (3,500, 25/10).

I'm probably overly optimistic for this year. I think the Browns can surprise and a lot of that is based on Shurmur, the WCO, McCoy, Hillis, and Moore. I think we have ways to cover for our WR deficiencies until a couple emerge. And if we CAN pass the ball... we can win games. It's a statistical reality in today's NFL.

[Masters]

NE had the 9th ranked rushing offense and 10th ranked passing offense in 2010. So for NE last year it was not all about Tom Brady (mind you he did play out of this world in 2010).

I think some of this listing of top QBs in the league by QBR shows again how that system is flawed (partly why ESPN with Jaws tried to create their own new formula for it). David Garrard had a QBR of 90, even though he threw for 1K and 2K less yards than guys like Rivers, Brady, Brees, Peyton, and some others (along with 100 to 200 less attempts).

There is also a large number of teams who threw for over 3,300 yards and didn't make the playoffs (SD, HOU, DEN, WAS, DAL who are in the top 10 in passing yards in 2010, then you have NYG, DET, Cincy, MIA, SF, TB, SEA, OAK, BUF, JAX, and MIN who all were over 3,300 yards). So 3,300 is a very arbitrary number.

By the way 4 of the top 10 rushing teams made the playoffs, along with the 11th, 12th, and 14th ranked team. You need to be able to both run and pass well. Even SB champ GB had to lean on their running game to get to and win the SB (averaging over 100 yards per game).

[Brown Warrior]

I think you have to look at guys who played a full season and had a reasonable number of attempts, M... like 450-ish. I happen to think Cassel was more of a passenger because nobody was really defending the pass against the Chiefs... and unless he can drive that train in the future, they can't win consistently. Feel the same way about the Jets.

You have to have a quarterback who wins games for you as opposed to not losing them... like Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Vick, Rivers, Ryan, etc.

I warn fans against hoping that the Browns can power run their way to the playoffs. It just isn't the league we play in.

[YtownBacker]

Even the most pass happy teams will run the ball at least 40% of the time. Defenses need to know you can and will run the ball. They need to be kept honest. It's a QB driven league but still a team sport.

This isn't Arena Football and never will be close to it.

[Brown Warrior]

Originally Posted by YtownBacker

Even the most pass happy teams will run the ball at least 40% of the time. Defenses need to know you can and will run the ball. They need to be kept honest. It's a QB driven league but still a team sport.

This isn't Arena Football and never will be close to it.

Agreed. But teams that can't run the ball can win. Teams that can't pass the ball... can't.