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Ranking NFL starting quarterbacks

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Default Ranking NFL starting quarterbacks

Ranking NFL starting quarterbacks

Originally Published: August 31, 2011
By John Clayton
ESPN.com

Patience is a virtue, especially for NFL quarterbacks.


Aaron Rodgers sat behind Brett Favre for three seasons, and he's now near the top of the list of elite quarterbacks. After two seasons in prison, Michael Vick took a No. 3 job in Philadelphia behind Donovan McNabb and Kevin Kolb and re-emerged as an elite quarterback. Kolb is trying to do the same in Arizona after a trade from the Eagles.

Change is a constant in the NFL, and that's reflected in my preseason quarterback rankings. Gone is Favre, whose body broke down last season and he finally ended up on his tractor on his Mississippi farm. McNabb was supposed to save the Redskins, but his status dropped so far that he had to take a pay cut with the Vikings.

I divide the league's quarterbacks into three categories -- The Elite, the Chad Penningtons and the Hit-or-Miss quarterbacks. This year, I have 13 elites. Although I am criticized for putting a Matt Schaub or a Joe Flacco in the same category as a Tom Brady or a Peyton Manning, I do it for a reason.

Elite quarterbacks are the ones who usually make the playoffs, so I categorize the elites as the ones who give their franchises the best chance. The league has 12 playoff spots, and usually 10 or 11 of the elite quarterbacks fill those positions. To be elite, a quarterback must have 4,000-yard potential, complete 60 percent of his passes and score more than 20 points a game.

The Penningtons are the quarterbacks who may not be elite but are good enough to take a team to the playoffs if the talent around them is good enough or if the schedule is easy enough.

No one knows if the Hit-or-Miss QBs will be good this season or not. They are either too young or haven't done enough recently to offer much hope.

THE ELITE

1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Analysis: Working 39 plays a game out of two-tight end sets in 2010, Brady baffled defenses until the playoffs, winning 14 games and the league's MVP award. With the addition of Chad Ochocinco on the outside and some young runners, Brady should even be better this year.

Arrow is pointing: up

2. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Analysis: Rodgers' playoff run was phenomenal, particularly because the Packers had to do it as a wild card. This year, he reloads with a healthy Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant and the chance to use a little bit more no-huddle.

Arrow is pointing: up

3. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts
Analysis: The signing of Kerry Collins with the Colts is a little unnerving because it means Manning might miss regular-season time after 208 consecutive starts while waiting for nerves in his neck to heal from offseason surgery. The Colts gave him a five-year, $90 million contract -- they know Manning will play. They just don't know when.

Arrow is pointing: flat

4. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Analysis: Maybe it's me, but the 2010 Brees didn't look particularly sharp. His interceptions jumped from 11 in 2009 to 22 last year, and he appeared to be fighting a knee injury all season.

Arrow is pointing: flat

5. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Analysis: Roethlisberger barely made the top 10 in the new QBR ratings. He concedes statistics to Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan, but he has two Super Bowl rings and a 10-3 playoff record. In fourth quarters and late in games, he's dangerous.

Arrow is pointing: up

6. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
Analysis: Rivers is a riverboat gambler. Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson may be double-covered, but Rivers will still get them the ball. Last year, he had Gates-Jackson-Malcom Floyd on the field for only about a quarter together. Watch for Rivers to have his best season.

Arrow is pointing: up

7. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
Analysis: One stat being held against him is an 0-2 playoff record. One stat that will change this season will be yards-per-attempt, which was a meager 6.5 last season. Julio Jones will stretch the field, and that will open things up for Ryan to get the ball to Harry Douglas in the slot and Tony Gonzalez at tight end.

Arrow is pointing: up

8. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles
Analysis: Vick is once again a superstar, as he was in Atlanta, but now he's doing it in a passing offense. He averages about 30 points a game when he plays. His only concern is staying healthy because he sacrifices his body for the good of the team.

Arrow is pointing: up

9. Eli Manning, New York Giants
Analysis: I tried to move him higher in the rankings, but that notion was intercepted. He is now expected to throw for 4,000 yards a season because he's that good. But he can't continue to have 25-interception seasons. The loss of Kevin Boss and Steve Smith along with an unsettled offensive line will make his job tougher.

Arrow is pointing: down

10. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys
Analysis: Give Romo and the Cowboys a mulligan for a horrible 2010 season. He got hurt, and Wade Phillips lost his job. Romo has looked great in practices and in games so far and should throw for 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns.

Arrow is pointing: up

11. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
Analysis: Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron is supposed to unleash a new Joe Flacco, one who will have more chances to go downfield and carry the team with his arm. Last year, the Ravens ran 23.8 plays a game out of two-back formations, but the addition of Lee Evans at split end and maybe Torrey Smith running some long routes could open up the offense a little more.

Arrow is pointing: up

12. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
Analysis: I don't know if Schaub can do more. He's thrown for 9,140 yards and 53 touchdowns the past two seasons, but that hasn't been good enough to get the Texans to the playoffs. In fact, they ended up 6-10 last season. He needs some help from his defensive friends.

Arrow is pointing: flat

13. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Analysis: He posted enough numbers to graduate into the elite level. He has a 63.5 QBR. Scouts Inc. placed him in the top 200 players, 13th among quarterbacks. He generated six fourth-quarter comebacks last season. He completed 61.4 percent of his passes with a young, unheralded receiving corps.

Arrow is pointing: up

CHAD PENNINGTON DIVISION

14. Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams

Analysis: He's the next elite quarterback. The only thing preventing his jump is a 6.0 yards-per-attempt number. Bradford showed remarkable poise winning seven games and completing 60 percent of his passes as a rookie. I just wish he had a more explosive group of receivers to take him to the next level.

Arrow is pointing: up

15. Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs
Analysis: Cassel is almost like Pennington, a quarterback who took four teams to the playoffs for the Jets and Dolphins. He manages the game well enough to win and get a team into the playoffs. What holds him back is the lack of a big arm and his struggles in games against elite quarterbacks.

Arrow is pointing: flat

16. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears
Analysis: Cutler has elite talent, and he's improved his legwork during the offseason. Thanks to the rule moving the kickoff to the 35-yard line, Cutler will be asked to do more because great Bears returns routinely gave him drive starts past his 30. Now, he must generate drives from his 20 because of touchbacks.

Arrow is pointing: flat

17. Mark Sanchez, New York Jets
Analysis: We all know and applaud his four postseason victories and how his numbers and performances are better in the postseason than the regular season. Still, he's a 54.8 passer who has to work with older receivers Derrick Mason and Plaxico Burress and an offensive line that has question marks.

Arrow is pointing: flat

18. Kevin Kolb, Arizona Cardinals
Analysis: Neat fact: Kolb won two NFC Player of the Week awards in his seven starts in Philadelphia. He will throw the ball to Larry Fitzgerald 10 or 11 times a game. If he can complete eight or nine passes to other players -- which he should -- Kolb can get the Cardinals to eight wins.

Arrow is pointing: up

19. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
Analysis: When he has played -- which has been rare -- Stafford has shown the ability to put up more than 24 points a game as a starter. He has been one of the more impressive quarterbacks in the preseason, and he appears to be ready to have a breakout year.

Arrow is pointing: up

20. Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos
Analysis: He outlasted Rex Grossman in Chicago. He survived a Tim Tebow challenge. Even though he might not be the people's choice in Denver, he's a good quarterback who was on pace for a 5,000-yard throwing season early last year.

Arrow is pointing: flat

21. Donovan McNabb, Minnesota Vikings
Analysis: McNabb went from sitting behind an elite quarterback in Philadelphia to backing up Rex Grossman in Washington at the end of the season. McNabb acknowledges he's more comfortable in Bill Musgrave's version of the West Coast offense than he was in Washington. He's looking for a comeback.

Arrow is pointing: down

22. David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars
Analysis: Garrard never has really received credit for how well he has played at times in Jacksonville. He has a respectable 57.3 QBR, but after this season, he's DFA, designated for assignment. Blaine Gabbert will either get a chance to start this year or will be the starting quarterback next year.

Arrow is pointing: down

23. Jason Campbell, Oakland Raiders
Analysis: Campbell has a coach who believes in him in Hue Jackson. Too bad he doesn't have an offensive line that can block for him.

Arrow is pointing: down

24. Matt Hasselbeck, Tennessee Titans
Analysis: Despite last year's playoff victory over the Saints, the Seahawks decided to cut ties with Hasselbeck and let him move on to Tennessee, where he's the bridge to Jake Locker. Hasselbeck's been banged up in recent years in Seattle, but he goes to a team with a good offensive line and a nice running game.

Arrow is pointing: up

HIT-OR-MISS DIVISION

25. Colt McCoy, Cleveland Browns

Analysis: At 6-foot-1, McCoy may not stand tall in the pocket, but he shows promise running a West Coast offense. He's a 60.8 percent thrower and seems to improve each time he's on the field. There might be some hope in Cleveland.

Arrow is pointing: up

26. Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins
Analysis: Henne's only hope is big seasons from Brandon Marshall and Reggie Bush.

Arrow is pointing: down

27. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills
Analysis: Just when Fitzpatrick was building a nice passing offense with Lee Evans and Steve Johnson, the Bills trade Evans to Baltimore and now lack the outside threat to take coverage away from Johnson. Bills fans can start following the Stanford schedule of Andrew Luck, who might be the Bills' next quarterback.

Arrow is pointing: down

28. Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers
Analysis: 49ers fans are getting the seven-year itch for a new quarterback. It's been seven years, seven offensive coordinators, 19 victories and no playoffs during the Smith years in San Francisco.

Arrow is pointing: flat

29. Kerry Collins, Indianapolis Colts
Analysis: Am I missing something? Wasn't Collins offered the chance to be the Titans' quarterback and take the Matt Hasselbeck job of grooming Jake Locker? Now, he's in Indianapolis filling in for Peyton Manning. All of the sudden the AFC South has become the care-takers division for quarterbacks.

Arrow is pointing: flat

30. Tarvaris Jackson, Seattle Seahawks
Analysis: Jackson was beaten out by Gus Frerotte and Brett Favre during his five seasons with the Vikings. Unless Dave Krieg comes out of retirement, he should beat out Charlie Whitehurst for the starting job.

Arrow is pointing: flat

31. John Beck-Rex Grossman, Washington Redskins
Analysis: In a quarterback-driven league, Mike Shanahan and his son, Kyle, believe scheme and coaching are everything. If this daily double gets the Redskins to the playoffs, Shanahan will be coach of the year. If not, the Redskins could be looking at Andrew Luck.

Arrow is pointing: down

32. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
Analysis: Newton's mechanics functioning in an NFL offense have exceeded expectations. The Panthers will live and die by Newton, who came out of nowhere to become a legend at Auburn.

Arrow is pointing: up

33. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
Analysis: Carson Palmer gave his heart, soul and body to make the Bengals a winning franchise. After two playoff losses and years of enduring frustration, Palmer gave up. Now it's Dalton's turn to try to do the same with a smaller body and not as strong an arm.

Arrow is pointing: down


SPORTS NATION: Rank the NFL starting quarterbacks

From Tom Brady to Andy Dalton, ESPN's John Clayton ranks the NFL's starting QBs - ESPN
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I just can't take John Clayton serious... Everytime I see the squirrelly little bastard he reminds me of Mr Whipple from the old "don't Squeeze the Charmin" commercials. Please, John!!! DON'T SQUEEZE THE DAMN TOILET PAPER!!!
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The CHAD PENNINGTON DIVISION is hysterical as a description.
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There should be a Horse Balls division.
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There should be a Horse Balls division.
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One of the best "analysis" articles in recent memory. That was some really good stuff. Not kidding.
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Oh, one disagreement: I just don't love Eli Manning. At all.
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Oh, one disagreement: I just don't love Eli Manning. At all.
Totally agree. Eli Manning is the worst "elite" QB I have ever seen.
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There should be a Horse Balls division.
Agree! Will DA make Carolina's roster? Does anybody really care?

That kind of talk will get you banned on at least one web site...
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Agree! Will DA make Carolina's roster? Does anybody really care?

That kind of talk will get you banned on at least one web site...
The real competition now is for the No. 2 spot where veteran Derek Anderson appears to have surpassed Jimmy Clausen on the depth chart.

http://carolinagrowl.com/index.php?option=com_cont ent&view=article&id=1021:anderson-outshine s-clausen-in-carolinas-loss-to-pittsburgh-thursday -night&catid=1:articles
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Derek Anderson appears to have surpassed Jimmy Clausen on the depth chart.
I said Jimmy Clausen was overrated at Notre Dame and I was correct.
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I said Jimmy Clausen was overrated at Notre Dame and I was correct.
Sure looks that way. I watch him play now... he's just alarmingly bad. Like watching Quinn in 2009... I admit it seemed like both guys' deals with the devil expired.
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