Originally Posted by DawgFan I have been working on this for a while, so hopefully it will make some sense (otherwise I am just a bigger moron than I thought I was). Offense
QB: Colt McCoy - Last year Colt completed 60.8%. This pre-season he completed 60.9%. Doesn't sound like much improvement until you understand that it is a new system, and the Browns 1st team offense was almost exclusively pass this pre-season. In other words, he didn't get the protection a running game nor the comfort of an already learned offense would afford him and he still matched his accuracy from last year. With additional time, and with the running game, I am pretty sure he will be in the 65% accuracy range. That is where all the top QB's live...and he will be there by year 2. Furthermore, he went 4-1 on TD-INT ratio... a vast improvement over last year. This, again, while working mostly (over half his targets) with rookies Little, Norwood and Marecic. All this points to a QB who is solid and accurate, and fits the system. Colt's stats actually could have been a ot better if not for game three when a lot of really close situations came up as incompletes. Bottom line is his throws were all there, and i am not big on preseason stats anyway. Funny thing, I was listening to the local Browns talk today on the radio and they were bringing up Colt's college career percentage like it was some new revelation. They said 72% like it was his best and I wanted to punch the radio and tell them he completed almost 80% of his passes one year. Some of us knew what accuracy meant when we drafted the kid, it is the single biggest gift a QB can have, but then he has the other important intangibles of a winner too. If he stays healthy, he is going to have a damn good season with around a 68% IMO, and they won't all be dink and dunk Frye stuff.
RB: Hillis barely touched the ball this pre-season. He didn't have to. The Browns KNOW what they have in him, and the rushing game was not something they needed to really work on. The guy with the most reps? Smith. Our #3, change of pace, little scat back. Why, because they needed to know what he did or didn't have. I think his 81 yarder answered that, and the fact that he didn't fumble the last game on 11 carries. He also proved he can catch the ball. Something that Hillis is (61 catches last year) a proven commodity. The RB situation may have some questions as far as Hardesty and his injury issues, but every team must worry about that. The Browns have 3 guys that each bring something new to the table, and each can catch as well as run. Hillis is a big time back, I can't wait to see him in this offense. They are going to do a lot of quick hitters where he can get to the second level quickly and punish backers and secondary guys, plus his hands and route running are phenomenal. He doesn't have to have huge stats to be an enormous part of the offense, but he will get his and shouldn't be worn down to much. My high hopes for the two back sets with Hardesty have died down a little for now, but I think eventually this will be their plan if Hards ever stays healthy. It's generally a two year process to come back full speed from ACL surgery, and the signing of Jackson proved that was their thinking. With Jackson going down, this could be an issue. I love Smith and his potential, he gets after it between the tackles and has a natural running acumen to go along with his explosiveness. I don't feel he is ready yet for extensive action, but I really like him. Marecic is a huge question mark, and if he doesn't perform well I think it will force Hards into action even more, with Hillis sliding to FB in certain sets. That doesn't mean he will execute the typical role of a FB, because they are smart enough not to be him up lead blocking. It will however, pose more matchup problems for the Defense.
TE: This is a HUGE strength for the Browns. Watson is a 1st rd pick and showed it last year by leading the team in receptions, and blocking for Hillis. Moore has proven himself a valuable player both in the red zone and on long passes down the sidelines, often lining up as a WR. Behind them, we have a solid blocker in Alex Smith, and a raw physical freak in Cameron. Even in 2 TE sets, the Browns do not sacrifice options in the passing game. Smith is probably the truest traditional TE we have and he is a much better pass receiver than people think. We will see a lot of two TE sets in the red zone and on third down and shorts with these two (Watson), plus Moore split wide. They did a lot of that in camp and found mismatches all over. They also have great run options in these sets. This unit will be huge in the offense, they are going to be the go to guys a lot and when defenses adjust, the WRs and backs will prosper. Love this unit, and Evan Moore is special.
OL: Thomas. Enough said. Mack. Close to as good. Lauvou. Looked solid. While RT and LG seem a bit up in the air, Pinkston looks to be a solid get, and Hicks looks like a nice fill or rotation with him. RT looks like it may be Cousins, but Greco has slid out there as well. Basically, the Browns may not have superstars across the OL, but they have a very solid left side, and plenty of very versatile guys on the right. Combine that with the TE blocking, and Marcic, and protection and run blocking should be fine, if not top half of the league good. Not as optimistic about the oline. First off, Pashos looks to start this week, but how long will that last? I'm okay subbing Pinky for Steiny, mainly because he can be protected between JT and Mack. I think Lauvao can play, but I don't like the depth. I have been underwhelmed by Greco and who knows what Hicks and Cousins can do, I just don't want to find out. Those guys were cuts, so I am not too sure there is reason to expect they won't suck. Hicks stil may start at LG this week. If he does, it tells us they don't think Pinky is ready.
WR: OK, I am listing this last for offense as many will disagree with my assessment. I think the Browns may have an "overall" excellent WR group. Notice I didn't say they had excellent WR's. There is a difference. The Browns have basically 4 guys that should be #2's (Little may develop into a #1, but...), 1 slot, and 1 #3 (Mitchell is unproven). While this doesn't sound great, it is better than you might think. Put it this way. D. Revis can cover exactly 1 guy. It doesn't matter if he is a true #1 or a #2. He still gets ONE guy. That means that the #2 CB gets the Browns next WR, also a #2. Then the mismatches start. The Browns have another WR that is #2 quality, that will go against a #3 CB, then throw in the RB's and TE's the Browns have...and suddenly the Browns have mismatches all over the field against LB's. The Browns can EASILY put 5 guys into patterns with #2 type skills between the TE's, RB's, and WR's. Within the WCO, this is EXACTLY what you want. If you have a diva #1, he can be taken away with a Revis, then the entire offense has to adjust. As it is now, no adjusting. Just let the guys play their game and take advantage of the mismatches of the week. Not much to add here, this sums up my opinion perfectly. I think we have a very well rounded corps and they will prosper along with Colt if the oline holds up. Cribbs staying healthy can really be an impact on this unit, along with Little's maturation and MoMass finally getting back. I look for big improvement out of him. Robo will be our consistent guy who by the end of the night has about 4 or 5 catches every week. Moore will play slot and wide a lot as I stated earlier, it will depend on the down and distances. I do think our red zone offense is going to be damn good. Norwood is a good little WR too, but he hurt himself running a few shitty routes in the Eagles game. One resulted in Colt's only pick. Kid is a player. I have always liked Mitchell and so does the brass, he has a lot of untapped potential so I am extremely happy they kept him around after the freak injury. This is a very solid and deep unit, but most importantly, everybody can catch the ball consistently---although Little may have some dropsies. Defense
DL: The Browns have an interesting situation on the DL. I absolutely LOVE the DT combo of Taylor and Rubin. Rubin was a force in the 3-4, so he is likely to pull double teams on a regular basis, which will likely mean Taylor will get single teams. He should be able to take advantage of that on a regular basis. When he starts getting the doubling respect, watch for the DE's and LB's to suddenly be in the backfield a lot. Keep in mind, Taylor owned Vick a couple of times, and Vick is probably the most mobile QB in the league. Imagine what he can do to an immobile QB (I daresay even Ben will go down when Taylor/Rubin hit him). Back to the DE's. These are BOTH 1st year starters and haven't looked great yet, but give them time (see previous statement). Sheard and Mitchell both look the part, have good range, and the strength to contain. Hopefully Sheard will make some sacks with Rubin pulling the LT from time to time on stunts. It looks like Rubin is going to stay at one tech and Phil at three, but this could change and they may swap. I am not sure Rubin will get doubled over Phil, but that will be determined as the season goes on. Sheard has been a little underwhelming, but has also shown flashes of what he can do. The good thing is he has a high motor and a good first step, so that is crucial. DE is a huge learning curve for rooks, these are not college tackles they are matching up against anymore. Work in progress. I expect him to move to the left side frequently with Benard taking the RDE in passing situation. I have no idea what Mitchell brings yet, but I have the feeling the coaches aren't as high on him now as Heckert was. Mitchell, Benard and Sheard will all be key in stopping the run, they must provide support. I do think with Rubin and Phil the stunt possibilities will be good. Depth is a concern, as Schaefering didn't do much in preseason and I am still not sure why Robinson was let go, he could play in or out and made plays. Don't be surprised if English makes his way on the team before long and sees playing time. Benard needs to continue to shed weight after showing up 25 pounds heavier than they wanted him because of the lockout non-communication. Pretty weak after that.
LB: To me, this is our weakest point. But not due to the scheduled starters. Gocong (when healthy) and Fujita are the 'crafty vets' of the group, and know where to be and when to be there. Jackson is finally in his element at MLB. Maiava is a solid rotational player and has tons of speed. However, after that the Browns are bone thin. They need all these guys to make it through the season to keep this defense clicking. This is the scariest unit. They are all paper mache's and no depth behind them. I don't have the optimism for Kaluka as some do, I think he is poor in coverage at times and gets eaten up inside too often. Titus Brown is easily our best backup and before he got hurt was pushing Gocong for a possible move of Jackson to the outside so he could take over the middle. Jackson's great camp play probably put an end to that talk anyway, but Gocong is the huge enigma here. He didn't exactly tear up the 43 in Philly, and being hurt all camp really makes questions about him. We need Brown to get healthy, he could be a future sleeper stud. My thin is Fuje, I think even Brown fans underrate how good he really is. I think he is a big time player, but obviously the injury concerns linger. He HAS to stay healthy for us, because he is easily the smartest guy out there and a leader, which Jackson is going to be too.
CB: Brown is having a resurgence this year, and Haden is who we thought he was. I don't see a problem here. Skrine and Dockery give the CB position tons of speed for the nickle, and overall I think this group is solid. Particularly if the DL gets in the face of the QB's like I think they will. We may have a higher than desired completion against percentage, but I also think this is going to be a high INT unit. I have a Butchie gyutt feeling on Brown having a big year too. He seems healthy and yonger this year. I was reading something where he was ranked one of the top cover corners in the game for a few years until last year. Haden is a beast and I like so far what I have seen from Patterson at the nickle. Skrine I love, he flies to the ball and tackles pretty well for a guy his size. He will stick you. Dockery is a STs guy for now, way raw but talented. The safety situation is up in the air. Young was brought here to take over FS and run with it, but has barely had practice time to work with the other guys on communication etc. Plus, muscle pulls for fast guys tend to have bad endings when they have yet to get on the field. Going with Adams there is going to hurt, make no bones about it. Young is a huge X Factor this season. Ward goes as the front seven does, the better they are the more he can be in the box and make plays. I don't think he will ever be elite like Reed or Polly because he lacks the savvy and coverage ability, but he is a serious baller and difference maker. Again, we need the FS to take pressure off him and let him do his thing. I am still a big Hagg fan, I hope he gets healthy and can provide decent depth, I think he is a player.
S: Ward is a beast. I think he hit the rookie wall last year, but this year expect him to be better and there for the entire year. Believe it or not, I also like Adams. He is an all around player that has had to do it all, and now that he can concentrate on FS, I think we will see him shine. I wish we had seen Young, and hope Hagg comes back soon for depth. Regardless, I think the starting unit again is a hard hitting, ball hawking group. Oops, jumped the gun on safeties. Adams is better at corner than at safety where he can matchup in nickle and dime situations. I'm not big on him at safety. Summary
Overall, I think the Browns are going to surprise big time on the offensive side of the ball. I anticipate Colt being near the top 10 in QBR, and I also anticipate 5 or 6 guys in the 60+ range in receptions (WR/TE/RB). If they can pull that off, and I think they can, Hillis/Hardesty/Smith are going to have huge holes to run through. The WCO is all about setting up mismatches, and as I said in the RB/WR/TE sections above, the Browns have a collection of players in those areas that will give them at least 1-2 mismatches on almost every down, no matter who we are playing. All Colt has to do is see it and get it there, and as he is very accurate I can't see why it won't occur on a regular basis. As for the defense, I think it is going to be a feast of famine D in the beginning of the year. Too much youth not to make a few mistakes here and there. However, as the year goes by I think the D (obviously injuries aside) is going to solidify and start doing a better job of actually winning a game or two for us.
I stated in the "2011 Prediction" thread that I thought the Browns would be 9-7. I stick by that. I also think that with a few guys that break out, this could be a playoff team. I know many will think that this is the kool-aid talking (actually, I prefer beer), but I looked over the pre-season when the 1st teams were playing. In the first two games the Browns outscored the opponents 28-17 in about 1/2 of play. Vs the Eagles, they didn't do as well on the scoreboard, but it was partially due to some very uncharacteristic drops by Hillis (TD) and Moore (TD), and a couple of bad calls by the refs (Robiskie setting up a likely score and the INT overturned on a sack). Even one of these plays goes the Browns way and this game is just that, a GAME...vs a SB contender.
So, I am sure I will take "homer heat" on this one. But for once, I am truly feeling it. Not to beat a dead horse, but it will come down to injuries, plain and simple. The offense has potential to damn near be explosive if the oline holds up, and that includes some injuries at WR and TE. Backs are a little tougher though after losing Jackson and not knowing what Hards can bring. If this oline stays healthy and consistent, Colt and company are going to surprise a ton of people this year.
Defense is the biggest up in the air issue, I just don't know if we can stop the run and get pressure consistently. Again, crazy upside is 10-6 if damn near injury free and a weak schedule, but 5-11 if guys start dropping like flies. Either way, this will be a great upside season for development and seeing who our long term guys are going to be. GO BROWNS!!! |