Margin of Error for QBs Today

[Flugel]

I continued to read what a hero Alex Smith has been on days his defense held Tampa Bay to 3 points, Cincy to 8 points and placed their running game in a position to BEAT the undefeated Lions. Don't get me wrong, it was nice their QB at least contributed 125 yards passing after he fumbled away 1 drive and threw an INT on the opponent's side of the 50. I know, and he didn't REALLY need Frank Gore's 141 yards rushing in a passing only league with such heroics from Alex all game long.

Truth IS - I got to reflecting about a 4 yard slant pass for a TD that put a less talented team like the Browns into OT vrs the NY Jets in 2010. Truth be told, we needed a defense to keep us close enough to drive the ball for the game tying score at the end of regulation vrs a Team heading to an AFC Championship game appearance. That can be a GOOD reminder of what things CAN be like especially knowing it followed victories over NE and New Orleans. Alex Smith would have been pedastaled for all that in his 7th season regardless of how much the defense was required.

I won't argue HOW frustrating McCoy's performance has been to date especially this year. That said, Vegas precisely put it that there's been TIMES he's thrown together drives that ended as TD passes when we needed that. This usually went hand in hand with our defense playing ball. If there's 1 passing error vrs Miami on the final drive we simply lose. Instead? We get a sign of what things CAN be like if everyone is on the same page and we have the personnel to compete with the opponent's personnel.

Folks, there's also reasons I researched Julio Jones WAY before the combines to show many that thought he drops too many passes some much improved receiving numbers in 2010 as a JUNIOR. That's all archivable stuff. It seems to me that when our Brown Warrior returned from the Cincy opener, he was posting that we have the worst receivers in the league. He was so sure of it that he reminded everyone he's been the only one in here that has been right all along. TODAY, of course, he has bounced that over to the ONLY thing going wrong in our offense today is the QB behind perfect protections and an impressive receiving corps all of a sudden. The irony here is that after our preseason game with GB, he was posting how much improved McCoy's arm was and how much he really digs the guy. Maybe I'm just not smart enough to understand how positive he is about something 1 week and about how positive he can be about the exact opposite thing just weeks later.

Anyway, I once posted would it be worth out while to tradse upo for Bradford. Here's the REALITY with that - we would have had to trade away draft volumes for a QB that is learning he NEEDS surrounding talent. Even though this isn't popular, I've always maintained you cannot define a QB accurately within his first 16-32 starts and I can give examples of Steve Young, Drew Brees, Troy Aikmen, John Elway, Terry Bradshaw, Dan Fouts, Ryan Fitzpartick and Patrick FitzRyan, etc... But the point is not only are there learning curves to go through; BUT the reality of Troy Aikmen snapping out it in start #14 before arrivals of 1st rd WR opposite Michael Irvin, Emmitt Smith, Moose Johnston, Erik Williams, Ray Allen, Mark Stepnowski wasn't realistic. End result? "Jimmy Johnson is outside his mind - FIRE the bum!" And Steve Walsh was greener grass just like our friend Brown Warrior once very confidently posted "Ummmm, I think it's pretty obvious San Diego needs to go QB first in the draft!" Therefore, I'm really happy he's extended the patience of 7 years is fair for Alex Smith - mainly because he was the other darling to Aaron Rodgers.

I don't mind hearing people vent frustrations about McCoy. I just don't think it has to be at the tones of "the circle jerk thinks he's wonderful." I didn't deal with that any better than I received it so I'm willing to take 100% of the blame for adding gas to a fire instead of putting it out.

After watching Sunday's game and then reading our pass protection looked elite, while our receivers appeared to be uncoverable - our buddy Brown Warrior is setting out to prove he needs to quit his day job. That's fine as long as he remembers this was the guy (Jimmy Clausen) he argued tooth and nail needed to be our first pick at #7 overall in 2010:

Season	Team	G		QBRat	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/G	Y/A	TD	Int		Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD		Sack	YdsL		Fum	FumL
2010	Carolina	13		58.4	157	299	52.5	1558	119.8	5.2	3	9		23	57	4.4	2.5	0		33	223		9	2

Looking at the catastrophic numbers of Brown Warrior's 1st round prospect above, I'm sooo thankful Brown Warrior told us he's all about the avg per completion rate. It fits Jimmy Clausen like a glove. Here's our QB with freckles in a first 13 starts comparison with the understanding he's a 3rd round exchange value:

Year	Team	G		QBRat	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/G	Y/A	TD	Int		Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD		Sack	YdsL		Fum	FumL
2010	Cleveland	8		74.5	135	222	60.8	1576	197.0	7.1	6	9		28	136	17.0	4.9	1		23	132		1	0
2011	Cleveland	5		78.1	121	217	55.8	1199	239.8	5.5	8	3		16	51	10.2	3.2	0		8	48		4	1

I'm ALL for hearing how we can upgrade the QB position. I just posted Brown Warrior's ideas PREDRAFT and I came away extremely thankful we drafted Haden instead while we didn't need to take a better QB than Clausen until rd 3. I'd be ecstatic to draft Andrew Luck in 2012; BUT I'm not going top do what our buddy Brown Warrior did in saying terrible 2nd round prospects need to be first round prospects simply because every expert that knows anything about football allegedly said so.

The alternatives have not been kind here starting with DA:

Year	Team	G		QBRat	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/G	Y/A	TD	Int		Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD		Sack	YdsL		Fum	FumL
2008	Cleveland	10		66.5	142	283	50.2	1615	161.5	5.7	9	8		25	55	5.5	2.2	0		14	87		9	2
2009	Cleveland	8		42.1	81	182	44.5	888	111.0	4.9	3	10		10	8	1.0	0.8	2		11	75		5	3

And here's Jake Delhome last 2 years (only 1 of those with us):

2009	Carolina	11		59.4	178	321	55.5	2015	183.2	6.3	8	18		17	60	5.5	3.5	0		23	187		6	3
2010	Cleveland	5		63.4	93	149	62.4	872	174.4	5.9	2	7		8	-2	-0.4	-0.3	0		6	49		3	1

And here's 1st round pick Brady Quinn who was 3rd string a few weeks ago in Denver of all places:

Year	Team	G		QBRat	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/G	Y/A	TD	Int		Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD		Sack	YdsL		Fum	FumL
2007	Cleveland	1		56.8	3	8	37.5	45	45.0	5.6	0	0		0	0	0.0	N/A	0		0	0		0	0
2008	Cleveland	3		66.6	45	89	50.6	518	172.7	5.8	2	2		5	21	7.0	4.2	0		1	9		0	0
2009	Cleveland	10		67.2	136	256	53.1	1339	133.9	5.2	8	7		20	98	9.8	4.9	1		19	104		4	3

Poor Tim Couch only faired better in 1 of his 6 painful seasons here; and that was because after the bye week in 2002 we committed to the running game as William Green surprisingly averaged 100 yards rushing per outing over the last 6-7 weeks of the season. Magically, when a career backup filled in for the injured Couch - our passing game got 429 yards passing from a journeyman backup named Holcomb vrs Pittsburgh. We were 1 dropped TD pass from Northcutt away from rewriting post season history plus a dropped INT from Anthony Henry. I've seen QBs of all shapes and sizes coming from all different rounds of the NFL draft falling victim to the environment our front office put them in. Throughout all of this, the solution has always been as simple as "Fire the Coach" and "bench/cut the QB." Aren't we heading down that path ALREADY just 5 weeks into 2011? Well, look around at what is being posted when 2 first round draft picks are just around the corner for us in 2012.

When you run the ball and play great defense, a James Harrison INT for a 98 yard INT return can 14 point swing a game into the hands of his QB at the last 2 minutes. AND when GB picks off Ben for a an early TD in the SB and they strip Mendhenhall of the football on a long sustained drive on GB's side of the field - it HELPS the QB. Let's not pretend GB's defense sucked as they had to win ALL of their last 4 games to make the playoffs in the first place in 2010. I've witnessed Trent Dilfer win as many SBs as Peyton Manning so don't tell me a defensive margin of error isn't HUGE. When NE stifled Indy outdoors to a scoring outburst of 3 points in an AFC Championship, all Tom Brady had to do was lead his team to 2 FGs in an AFC championship as a worst case scenario. Obviously he did better as they scored 23 points. Ironically the BEST passing season Brady ever had ended with the NY Giants sacking and harassing his ass all game long in the only SB they lost since he's been starting so Eli was the beneficiary of a defensive margin of error alotted while the DC got a Head Coaching gig in St Louis from it all.

[Jax Dawg]

I remember BW saying McCoy needs to average around 250 yards/game to be successful. So far he is averaging 240/game with an 8TD to 3INT on the year. And these are Charley Frye numbers? Brady Queen numbers? McCoy needs to improve his timing, accuracy, and decision making no doubt but have some patience please!

[Riffer X]

Great post Flugs, nothing like the Browns sucking and then coming on this board to see people gloating about being right about our young QB they didn't want to draft sucking (and acting like it is a done deal already), especially when said people are hitting on about 1% of their lifelong predictions regarding football and the Browns.

[Vegasdogg]

Great post Tom. You know this Sunday I was frustrated with Colt because his accuracy - one of his best traits - was scattershot. But Monday I woke up and I was thinking how he doesn't consistently throw the boneheaded INT, he has it in him to dig deep somehow and get back into the game, and shit he has 8 TD's and 3 INT's.

[Vegasdogg]

Originally Posted by Flugel

Here's our QB with freckles in a first 13 starts comparison with the understanding he's a 3rd round exchange value:

Wow McCoy smoked Clausen. Big time. Hey for fun, here is the 2nd year of Alex Smith:


16 INT 5 Fumbles = 21 turnovers. Keep in mind he started 7 games the previous year, like Colt. And wow how about the QBR @ 74.8 - WOW.

But it's okay since he was a #1 pick, those guys are permitted to suck.


Nice work on the stats dude. I don't know how you got them to format.

[King of Kings]

That IS a good post Tom, I did enjoy reading it alot. However as I AM one of the ones shall we say a bit nervous about the QB position instead of going all "hai guis, ith's a QB league, get with the timesth like ESthPN." I will lay out some ideas. Keep in mind this is IN THE EVENT that Colt DOESN'T improve by week 17 and a change is potentially on the horizon.

1: We could draft a guy. Now that's iffy and while they're a FEW options they are just that, a few. Maybe we land #1 overall, maybe not. Maybe #2 or maybe #10. If #1 it's a no brainer, Andrew Luck. If it's not you can try a trade and see how that goes. At #2 you have Matt Barkley or maybe even Landry Jones, he's kinda sliding up the draft boards lately that i've noticed and some teams are dropping Barkley down a bit. I don't know nor care about the USC rumor mill on that one, nothing is set into stone until it's time to declare. If he's available and attainable don't let BW scare you off, the kid has talent, he IS hardworking and he's worth taking a chance on. Although it's strange Shep likes him aside from being a Cali kid with a room brightening smile and bulging biceps, the kid is actually extremely religious and likely a..... *looks around and whispers* Republican!

The rest of the crop outside of Ryan Tannehill and Nick Foles isn't very impressive so far. You've got alot of smaller school kids which doesn't always mean anything, a few glorified runningbacks and that's about it. I'd love for there to be another Andy Dalton out there but I can't see one this year.

2: You trade for someone to compete with McCoy. There's a possibility, well there's a 99% chance Chad Henne, Matt Cassel and Kyle Orton hit the trade block. None of the three will command a huge trade. Out of the bunch I wouldn't mind trading for Cassel and having him duke it out for the starters spot. Of course one of them rookies from last season just might be available as well if MN, Jax or someone hits the Luck jackpot. Or maybe Mike Kafka can be had cheap and compete for the spot.

3: Sign a FA and have them compete with McCoy. Looks like Jason Campbell will be available and wouldn't be a bad stop gap if needed at all. I'd toss him a good deal to compete with McCoy, no guarantees and may the best man win. One thing is certain we would truly see what McCoy is made of having to compete his ass off for the spot.

4: Do nothing, try to surround him with Probowl talent across the board and see if you can recreate another Kurt Warner story. Obviously alot would love that idea. Me personally? I've always maintained that if you NEED two #1 WR's, probowl RB's and a hundred million dollar offensive line you don't have your answer at QB. I mean if he continues to play like he IS and there's slim pickin's? I wouldn't have a big issue with keeping him as starter one more year but unless there's a HUGE year two turnaround? Don't build around the guy longterm. I still am of the belief 24 games is ample to see where a QB is headed.

5: This one is crazy. People won't dig it. They may even shoot it down. But hey, i'm a crazy guy and want to see us make a ballsy move. If St. Louis is #1 overall again I offer them two 1sts and two 3rds for that pick so I can draft Luck. If they say no I bump the 3rd in 2013 to a 2nd(Keep in mind those using the excuse of you cannot trade lots of picks, draft picks aren't set in stone. Belichick proves it every year, you can recoup and even stockpile 2nd-5th rounders with draft day trades). If it's still no here comes the crazy part, I make them a similar offer that the Raiders just make for Sam Bradford. The rumor mill is churning and it's possible they have a new HC and maybe even new GM next year if they don't turn it around big time which likely won't happen. The new staff may want to get their own QB, start their own era. Maybe Shurmur would like to reunite with his guy from STL. There's no denying the kid was growing and starting to thrive under Shurmur's system.

Blah blah salary cap and whatever. Doesn't matter. I'm dreaming out loud? Of course. It's like a 1.5% possibility of happening but fuck it, i'm bored as hell and Bradford is MY Jimmy Clausen. I love that tall part Native American hunk of a man and his tight spirals! I had to kill some time by tossing it in there. The Raiders inspired me to do so. INSPIRED ME.

[Enigmatic Evil]

I don't want to say I've lost faith in Colt McCoy. I always felt like I called him "The Messiah" for a reason. He's had a rough go of things, our facade of a running game this season isn't doing him any favors, ditto for our offensive line. The crazy thing is the WR play has been better than last season, it seems.

I'll give Colt the season at least, if we cant land luck and he wins the job next season good luck too him...

This season is still young, a lot can happen in the following weeks.

[nickers]

Salient post as always Tom.Im not pushing the panic button on Colt just yet. I really think he can get out of this funk. and thats all we can hope for

[OzDawg]

guy who hates to lose taking on too much responsibilty . I do think he has a chance at sucess at this level. we'll see

[OzDawg]

ps ever see him run a game winning drive? in the nfl?

[Flugel]

Thanks for the replies folks. As a fan of this team since the 60s, first round QBs (EXCEPT for the supplemental round) have been booed here consistently and emphatically from Phipps to Testaverde to Couch to Quinn. In a place we often wondered why NO elite head coaching prospects have been interested, there's Sunday highlights being shown of our home crowd of 60,000 fans booing a motionless Tim Couch on the field as if Couch just WANTED things to go that wrong.

And when we DID bring a first round QB here to lead us to 11-5 and 1 playoff victory over Parcell's Patriots - people booed Vinny Testaverde all throughout that season. In fact, the fan favorite disturbingly became late round pick Eric Zeier for reasons I've never found logical. So TRUST ME when I tell you I like 1st round QBs especially when I think they're GOOD. Testaverde went to about 3 Pro Bowls AFTER he left Cleveland and his numbers were pretty good in Baltimore before leading the Jets to an AFC Championship Game vrs the Denver Broncos (that won the SB). But again, Eric Zeier was just GREENER grass. Ironically, the ONLY season it went good winning wise for Couch was when we had to commit to the running game for the final 6-7 weeks of the 2002 season.

It doesn't matter WHAT round a guy comes from if his karma is going to be a GREAT QB. Some of you aren't old enough to remember the Mike Phipps that we traded Warfield away to the Dolphins for in exchange for the 3rd overall pick. He had ALL the prototypicals while Sipe had the scouting report that read "too short, not fast enough, weak arm" so he was a 13th round pick. Do you know what I rarely see in scouting reports? "Sees the field well enough to capitalize on accuracy and poise." Therefore, guess which guy gave us an MVP season back when Mel Blount could hug and mug WRs all over the field? Brian Sipe. And TRUST me the reason his exceeding 4000 passing yards was unheard of is because it was FAR MORE difficult to accomplish.

FWIW, what 1st round QB from this year's rookie class is outplaying or outwinning Andy Dalton? ALL positions, including QB, have steals after round 1 dating back as far as we need it to. What we HAVE to remember NEW coaches and NEW QBS and NEW players are coming here with good intentions and they have ZERO to do with what lingers from a cumulative effect of ZERO drafts from 1996-1998 followed by embarassign draft volumes from 1999 through 2008. If ANYONE really watched the game Sunday in Oakland - regardless of how unimpressive many passes were - HOW MANY balls were caught that hit our receivers hands in traffic? I know there were collisions but I saw a TE in Detroit outwrestling Patrick Willis for a TD reception. On top of that, there were replays where both OGs in pas protection looked like they were 5 yards away from Center just BEGGING for delayed x-stunt blitzes inside to capitalize on a receiving corps that showed them difficulty seperating in routes on film. I don't really know if any mortal outside of Aaron Rodgers could have handled it. I DO know Aaron Rodgers won't like receivers that worry more about getting hit in tight coverages than catching his passes. If you're playing QB here - WHO is your obvious goto guy as instantly as the 2 seconds or less our protections have been alotting?

I get frustrated when we beg for changes; and then we want to call 1 foul ball and 1 missed swing a need for somebody brand new to enter the batter's box. I say such a thing because I know our grade in the draft has been an F from 1999-2008 after 3 consecutive years of no drafts at all. I suggest we get back on track with being realistic and talking about the WR prospects. I'll find my next Julio Jones to get excited about since the original got us a 2nd first round pick for 2012.

If our fanbase does NOT allow us to get this thing off the ground and everybody leaves here with their heads between their tails 1 more time, the NEXT Jim Harbaugh isn't going to want to touch this place. In fact, we won't even get a Mangini or Shurmur interested. We're talking Derek Dooley-level here and do we REALLY want to be before it's absolutely necessary?

[golfer704u]

Originally Posted by King of Kings

That IS a good post Tom, I did enjoy reading it alot. However as I AM one of the ones shall we say a bit nervous about the QB position instead of going all "hai guis, ith's a QB league, get with the timesth like ESthPN." I will lay out some ideas. Keep in mind this is IN THE EVENT that Colt DOESN'T improve by week 17 and a change is potentially on the horizon.

1: We could draft a guy. Now that's iffy and while they're a FEW options they are just that, a few. Maybe we land #1 overall, maybe not. Maybe #2 or maybe #10. If #1 it's a no brainer, Andrew Luck. If it's not you can try a trade and see how that goes. At #2 you have Matt Barkley or maybe even Landry Jones, he's kinda sliding up the draft boards lately that i've noticed and some teams are dropping Barkley down a bit. I don't know nor care about the USC rumor mill on that one, nothing is set into stone until it's time to declare. If he's available and attainable don't let BW scare you off, the kid has talent, he IS hardworking and he's worth taking a chance on. Although it's strange Shep likes him aside from being a Cali kid with a room brightening smile and bulging biceps, the kid is actually extremely religious and likely a..... *looks around and whispers* Republican!

The rest of the crop outside of Ryan Tannehill and Nick Foles isn't very impressive so far. You've got alot of smaller school kids which doesn't always mean anything, a few glorified runningbacks and that's about it. I'd love for there to be another Andy Dalton out there but I can't see one this year.

2: You trade for someone to compete with McCoy. There's a possibility, well there's a 99% chance Chad Henne, Matt Cassel and Kyle Orton hit the trade block. None of the three will command a huge trade. Out of the bunch I wouldn't mind trading for Cassel and having him duke it out for the starters spot. Of course one of them rookies from last season just might be available as well if MN, Jax or someone hits the Luck jackpot. Or maybe Mike Kafka can be had cheap and compete for the spot.

3: Sign a FA and have them compete with McCoy. Looks like Jason Campbell will be available and wouldn't be a bad stop gap if needed at all. I'd toss him a good deal to compete with McCoy, no guarantees and may the best man win. One thing is certain we would truly see what McCoy is made of having to compete his ass off for the spot.

4: Do nothing, try to surround him with Probowl talent across the board and see if you can recreate another Kurt Warner story. Obviously alot would love that idea. Me personally? I've always maintained that if you NEED two #1 WR's, probowl RB's and a hundred million dollar offensive line you don't have your answer at QB. I mean if he continues to play like he IS and there's slim pickin's? I wouldn't have a big issue with keeping him as starter one more year but unless there's a HUGE year two turnaround? Don't build around the guy longterm. I still am of the belief 24 games is ample to see where a QB is headed.

5: This one is crazy. People won't dig it. They may even shoot it down. But hey, i'm a crazy guy and want to see us make a ballsy move. If St. Louis is #1 overall again I offer them two 1sts and two 3rds for that pick so I can draft Luck. If they say no I bump the 3rd in 2013 to a 2nd(Keep in mind those using the excuse of you cannot trade lots of picks, draft picks aren't set in stone. Belichick proves it every year, you can recoup and even stockpile 2nd-5th rounders with draft day trades). If it's still no here comes the crazy part, I make them a similar offer that the Raiders just make for Sam Bradford. The rumor mill is churning and it's possible they have a new HC and maybe even new GM next year if they don't turn it around big time which likely won't happen. The new staff may want to get their own QB, start their own era. Maybe Shurmur would like to reunite with his guy from STL. There's no denying the kid was growing and starting to thrive under Shurmur's system.

Blah blah salary cap and whatever. Doesn't matter. I'm dreaming out loud? Of course. It's like a 1.5% possibility of happening but fuck it, i'm bored as hell and Bradford is MY Jimmy Clausen. I love that tall part Native American hunk of a man and his tight spirals! I had to kill some time by tossing it in there. The Raiders inspired me to do so. INSPIRED ME.

Actually of your choices there IF McCoy doesn't improve I prefer 1 and 5! Of all those FA/trade QBS you mentioned, I'd only touch Campbell and Orton, and ONLY as stopgaps.