"The Trade" Becomes a Book

[Brown Warrior]

Very interesting. Right now it doesn't look great, but has to be judged after the next draft. For me, I look at having Jones-Sheard-Casey instead of Taylor-Sheard-Little... and I would definitely prefer the first.

If the Browns are able to use those two ones to get a franchise changing player? Then it was worth the year's wait. Can't be more "guys."

New book provides insight into Browns-Falcons draft day trade for Julio Jones: NFL Insider | cleveland.com

[TheBestPlayersPlay]

Originally Posted by Brown Warrior

Jones-Sheard-Casey

Don't know why you keep saying those 3 guys when it likely wouldn't have played out that way.

Last year's offense would have been perfect for Jones, and he likely would have been the straw that finally ended up stirring the drink. That being said, Heckert really seemed to believe that Holmgrens offense was going to turn our current stock of WRs into legit NFL starters. Maybe that is the bill of goods Holmgren sold him anyways. If so, shame on Heckert for buying.

Real tough to turn down all those draft picks though, especially when you have gems like Marecic & Little waiting to be plucked from the college ranks.

I'll reserve judgment until we see how this year and next years draft ultimately pan out. But I am still pissed they made me endure this season, got rid of Vickers, chased Yates away, and refuse to play to our few strengths.

[Greythan]

Okay, let's break this thing down here. Someone keep me straight.

The deal: We swapped the 6th pick for the 27th pick. In addition, we picked up four additional picks: a 2nd/4th in the 2011 draft and the 1st/4th in the upcomming 2012 draft.

With the picks we took:

Phil Taylor
Greg Little
Owen Marecic

We still have the 1st/4th next year to factor in.

Look, I just can't see any way that this team could have afforded to NOT take the deal. We can have a legit and healthy debate over the three players we have along with the 2 additional unknowns from next year in lieu of Jones.

I mean forget the two fourths. You'd really even consider taking a WR ahead of 2 1st's and 1 2nd? Three picks in the top 2 rounds including two first rounders for the second WR taken in the draft?

I mean Shep, I'll use your own logic against you: star WR's don't generally win Super Bowls. Why give up so much for the potential to land one?

Looking forward to this discussion.

[Sez.EJ]

That 2nd (Sheard )and 3rd pick (Casey or Little) may well have been totally different.

You don't know what our taking Jones would have done to the rest of the draft. Who takes who, other trades etc.

Silly ridiculous speculation.. that's all. I'm happy with the trade so far.. How much more after next draft.

[Greythan]

Silly ridiculous speculation.. that's all.

Really? I don't think it is.

Right now we'd be a better team with Jones at WR as opposed to Little and whoever else playing DT. Marecic hasn't shown me anything other than remorse for letting Vickers go. A read head scratcher.

For me the value of the trade depends a ton on what we get from next year's picks. Obviously, I'm not holding out a ton of hope for an impact player from Atlanta's fourth next year. The first, on the other hand, is the key to this deal. Of course, it will take several years to have the benefit of hindsight.

Fun to debate regardless.

[Brown Warrior]

It was really two trades... but the sum for me is that our first three picks were Taylor, Sheard, and Little. If not for the trade, it could have been Jones, Sheard, Casey at those same positions of need.

Now, I should say I agree with BPP that those may not have been Heckert's picks and probably wouldn't have been. But it's interesting to me that they were my preferred picks and we did go with the same spots on the field, just in a different order.

I think Heckert created bad architecture by convincing himself that Jones wasn't really worthy of the pick, wasn't that much better than the slower-timing Little because their functional playing speed wasn't really that different... and in this offense it wouldn't matter. Belicheck believed the same thing. Along the way, he convinced himself that Robiskie doesn't suck.

In the end, it looks like both were wrong about Jones: He's averaging 18 a catch, gets open deep, and already has three games over 115 yards. He definitely would've stretched the field and I think he looks like a legit #1 WR.

So for this year, the only addition was Marecic, and letting go of Vickers... which adds up to another net loss, really. So three for three it was a loss because Casey has been as good or better than Taylor and is a true 3-tech... and then it got worse. But again... that's by what I think the Browns should have done. And what Mayock and many others thought the Browns should have done.

Back to the architecture: Matt Williamson and others say Browns' scouts are being told to concern themselves more with arm strength when scouting QBs this year. So my sense is that while the braintrust likely didn't convince themselves McCoy had a great arm, they were convinced he had enough.... and with big-ish but not very fast WRs, we'd be free to run slants willy-nilly all day long.

What they didn't count on was the obvious: It would lead to massive constipation. It led to that AFCN DC saying it would be easy to shut down McCoy and Browns by clogging lanes, pulling up safeties, and not worrying about getting beat deep... or even a little deep.

And that's what's happened. And now my conspiracy theory says Shurmur is telling Holmgren and Heckert exactly that: It isn't working. We have slow WRs and a weak-armed quarterback who can't/won't throw into tight windows, either... and you get games where you're down 24 but still only throw 22 times the whole game, mostly within 8 yards.

So our entire hope now for balancing out those personnel decisions is really Atlanta's first round pick next year... and that's a lot to ask. They may use both picks to move up and take Barkley at #2 or 4 or whatever, but they won't have the #1 WR and, as we've discussed, they also didn't get the look at McCoy they could've have had with Jones on the field keeping safeties back instead of blitzing. Dominoes fall.

Maybe it ends happily. Maybe we get Kendall Wright at pick 38 or something and he's finally a get in round 2 at WR and the formula comes together with him and Little starting. We'll have to see.

But right now, today, I don't think it was a successful draft. Taylor, by his own coach's account, isn't playing very well (he's "leveled off," which is code for he's not rocking the Casbah). Sheard looks good at the secondary DE spot in a 4-3, which is just fine for a second round pick. Little isn't special but he might end up a physical #2 if the #1 can open up the middle.

But for a team lacking elite playmakers, I think that's not terribly positive considering we had a #6 pick overall. It looks to me like Dimitroff was right about both Green and Jones being elite WRs (an article by Sam Farmer today points that out)... and he out-brained both Belicheck and Heckert.

And remember: Dimitroff, one of the hottest GMs in football, is an admitted "needs drafter," BTW. And I agree with him, even though he was overstating to make a point.

This year, we got a few "guys." We didn't get anyone special. And man, do we need some special.

Originally Posted by Greythan

Okay, let's break this thing down here. Someone keep me straight.

The deal: We swapped the 6th pick for the 27th pick. In addition, we picked up four additional picks: a 2nd/4th in the 2011 draft and the 1st/4th in the upcomming 2012 draft.

With the picks we took:

Phil Taylor
Greg Little
Owen Marecic

We still have the 1st/4th next year to factor in.

Look, I just can't see any way that this team could have afforded to NOT take the deal. We can have a legit and healthy debate over the three players we have along with the 2 additional unknowns from next year in lieu of Jones.

I mean forget the two fourths. You'd really even consider taking a WR ahead of 2 1st's and 1 2nd? Three picks in the top 2 rounds including two first rounders for the second WR taken in the draft?

I mean Shep, I'll use your own logic against you: star WR's don't generally win Super Bowls. Why give up so much for the potential to land one?

Looking forward to this discussion.

[Jax Dawg]

If Jones was on this team he would not in any way, shape, or form he would average 18 yards per catch - he would be running 8 yard curl routes along with the rest of the team on the same play and then run a 7 yard slant into 10 in the box. Would the offense look drastically different with Jones instead of Little? Doubt it. This is a poorly run and poorly executed offense regardless of the personnel involved.

Imagine the threads we could of had - "Shurmur underutilizing Jones"; "Jones seems to be a bust"; "Browns rue not trading with Atlanta for a a bevy of picks".

[Legacy Fan]

Please explain what kind of value Julio Jones would add to this offense before we start talking about what could have been.

"He can stretch the defenses"

Well that's just fucking grand, because currently we have:
a) A coach that's never heard of that as a strategy (my take)

or

b) A QB that couldnt make the throws anyway (your take).


Only in some ridiculous self-aggrandizing other dimension where you continue to align yourself with a different analyst flavor of the week and make the claim that out WRs suck so we should have taken the best one available last year does "taking Julio Jones" even make any sense.

[Greythan]

And, Shep, you made this rather critical point yourself: if we'd drafted Jones and STILL struggled at QB, we'd be lacking a key asset going into next offseason (e.g., Atlanta's #1).

Its too early since two of the five picks haven't been selected as yet. Will be fun to dredge up this thread around draft time and again mid way through next year.

[Riffer X]

I like Julio, got him on both my fantasy teams as a matter of fact. However, let's be careful of annointing the kid just yet. As an example, let's look back at last week and his 3 catches. Two were long TD's, but did anybody notice the absolute Usama Youngesque attempt at a tackle on his slant he took to the house? I wouldn't give the credit to Julio on that other than he did outrun everybody afterwards, but I think most of our receivers would have done the same. The safety in pursuit was about as fast as DQJ.

His other TD was a great catch, but it was in traffic and he came up witht he ball. There was nothing there where he just blew by everybody like they were standing still, it was in double coverage on an underthrown ball and he had no separation.

Look, this kid has missed several games this year and parts of another I believe, plus he is in an offense with Roddie White, Tony Gonzalez, Harry Douglass and Michael Turner. I'm not a huge Mattie Ice fan, but he isn't a loser at QB either. Julio should have a nice career, but to act like he would have come in here and set the world on fire (which he is not even doing in Atlanta) is ludicrous.

I will always say that was a good trade hands down, there are no ifs ands or butts about it with the exception of a few like Shep or Tones Gross. BTW, I remember Shep being giddy over Little after Solon slobbered drunkenly all over the board about the kid, so what happened there?

Little needs coaching and some play calling that at least gives him some hope to run some real routes. He is scared shitless right now to run a slant since defenses are teeing off on them. Let me see him make some tough catches in traffic and start using his body to his advantage, then I will believe he is going to get there as a legit number two stud.

The bottom line is you have to make your picks count. Mangie got us a ton of picks that were highly needed after Phillip left the cupboard bare, but unfortunately he and Kok didn't capitalize on them with the exception of Mack. Same goes here. I know Shep is dying to put a knife in the Taylor pick, but these guys are rookies who have played a lot of snaps this year---they are going to hit a wall at some point.

[Listercat]

Compl agree with Riffer; this was a good deal hands down...now what we do with the extra picks moving forward will be an interesting debate

[DirtyDawg]

From the Falcons' perspective, they made this deal hoping that Julio Jones would put them over the top and into the Superbowl.

Right now they are chasing the Packers, 49ers, Saints and possibly Bears just in the NFC.

All indications to me are that, a year or two down the road, they will regret this trade.

It was a good deal for the Browns.