NFL Draft: Are Safeties Worth a Top Five Draft Pick?

[Shep]

You really wanna go back and show the correlation between passing efficiency AND yardage and making the playoffs? Like every writer in America already did? Show how it correlates to winning WAY more than any other stat?

The Colts are NOT a balanced team in any way, shape, or form. No more than the Cardinals the year before. The Saints can run the ball but neither team is great on defense.

The top rushers and rushing teams did NOT correlate like the top passing teams. It's not even a debate, Sez. It's for reals.

Baltimore had a very good passing game. Flacco's a serious QB. The Bengals and Jets are the only teams in the playoffs who didn't rank in the top 13 passers (as I recall). The Jets QB got hot in the playoffs and they became a factor. The Bengals never were.

[Shep]

Another interesting way to look at QBR and playoffs:

11 of the top 13 passers made the playoffs. The other two were Ben (8-8) and Schaub (9-7).

Not one losing record in the top 13.

Of the top 20 passers, guess how many had losing records?

Two: Campbell and Garrard.

That's pretty freaky shit right there.

[Rich4eagle]

Originally Posted by BernietheKid

NFL Draft: Are Safeties Worth a Top Five Draft Pick?



Atlanta and Kansas City general managers Thomas Dimitroff and Scott Pioli worked together in New England. This March during the NFL Owners' Meeting, the two were discussing the Chiefs' options at No. 5.

Dimitroff brought up Berry in a conversation logged by Peter King.

"Scott, this guy's your pick," Dimitroff said.

Pioli apparently didn't agree. "You know how I feel about safeties that early."

Pioli's not the only one. There has been only one safety chosen with a top-five NFL Draft pick since 1992 (Sean Taylor). The last time a safety was selected in the top three was Eric Turner back in 1991.



Ironically, the two top safeties in recent memory, Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu, weren't even taken in the top 15.

Why is this? Why do safeties fall on Draft Day? Quite simply: The safety position is not really that important. In fact, it's quite insignificant when compared to quarterbacks, left tackles and pass-rushing defensive ends.

Of course, we'll need numbers to back this claim up. Let's take a look at every single safety drafted in the top 15 picks since 1991. I'm going to list whether each player was a hit or bust, as well as the original team's record with each player on the roster. These players are listed chronologically, starting from the most recent:

Safety/Draft No./Team/Original Team's Record/Hit, OK or Bust

LaRon Landry/ 2007, No. 6/ WAS/ 21-27 /OK - Has played fine at times, but blows tons of coverages. Not nearly the player the Redskins thought they were getting at No. 6.

Michael Huf/2006, No. 7/ OAK/ 16-48 /OK - Has had an up-and-down career, but he's been benched in the past. Again, not the great player the Raiders were expecting at No. 7 overall.

Donte Whitner/ 2006, No. 8/ BUF/ 27-37 /OK - A decent strong safety, but not anything special.

Sean Taylor/ 2004, No. 5/ WAS/ 26-33/ Hit - What a shame his life ended so early.

Roy Williams/ 2002, No. 8/ DAL/ 55-44/ Bust - Became famous with his hard hits, but was torched in coverage week in and week out.

Patrick Bates/ 1993, No. 12/ OAK /27-21 /Bust - Not a great pick by Al Davis; lasted only four years in the NFL. Amazingly, there were no top-15 safeties from 1994 to 2001.

Eric Turner/ 1991, No. 2/ CLE /36-44/ Hit - A 2-time Pro Bowler.

Stanley Richard/ 1991, No. 9/ SD/ 34-30/ OK - A solid safety who played eight years. No Pro Bowls.

Totals /242-284/ Hits: 2; OK: 4; Busts: 2

No team that drafted a safety in the top 15 since 1991 has won a Super Bowl with that player on its roster. And as you can see, teams that spent top-15 picks on safeties were 242-284 (.460) with that prospect on the roster.

Furthermore, if you exclude the records of Roy Williams and Patrick Bates, who didn't contribute much to their team's success (Williams struggled when the Cowboys went 13-3 in 2007 - thus his bloated record), teams that used top-15 picks on safeties were 160-219 (.422) with that prospect on the roster. And here I thought top-15 picks were supposed to help each team improve.

But wait a second. Eric Berry is obviously going to be better than Donte Whitner and LaRon Landry, correct? We can only speculate, but it's pretty much safe to say that Berry will be a great safety in the NFL. Does that change things?

Well, let's look at the two hits. The (both) late Sean Taylor and Eric Turner were Pro Bowl-caliber safeties. The Redskins and Browns were a combined 62-77 (.446) with them on the roster. Moreover, Taylor and Turner helped their teams reach only two playoff appearances in nine combined seasons in Washington and Cleveland, respectively.

Now, you may exclaim, "It's not Taylor's fault the Redskins were 21-27 with him on the roster; they had tons of other holes!" And that's precisely the point of this article - as good as Taylor was, he just didn't impact the result of Washington's games. The safety position is just not important.

For Kansas City fans who still want their team to select Berry: If you're content with the Chiefs winning 44.6 percent of their games, then by all means, ask Pioli to change his mind about taking safeties that early.

But Eric Berry Is Supposed to Be the Next Ed Reed! I've received a few e-mails about this, so I feel this should be addressed as well. Yes, Berry is being compared to Reed. Two problems with this though:

1. There is no guarantee that Berry will be as good as Reed. Wasn't Glenn Dorsey supposed to be the next Warren Sapp? Wasn't Vernon Gholston supposed to be the next DeMarcus Ware? Wasn't the late Gaines Adams supposed to be the next great pass-rusher? There are no guarantees in the NFL Draft. None. Anyone who believes otherwise is fooling themselves. Any prospect can bust.

2. Let's say Berry is the next Reed. How has Reed done for the Ravens? Well, since he was drafted in 2002, Baltimore is 70-58, which is a winning percentage of 54.7 - equating to something less than a 9-7 average (9-7 is 56.3 percent).

It's worth noting that Reed's record with the Ravens before they added Joe Flacco (i.e. a franchise quarterback) was 50-46 (.521).

In other words, if the Chiefs draft Berry, and Berry actually becomes the Hall of Fame player he's expected to be (which is definitely not a guarantee; see those busts I've mentioned), Kansas City will average anywhere between eight or nine wins with him on the roster.


WalterFootball.com: NFL Draft - Are Safeties Worth a Top Five NFL Draft Pick?

NO SAFETIES ARE NOT WORTH A TOP FIVE PICK

[Riffer X]

Originally Posted by Rich4eagle

NO SAFETIES ARE NOT WORTH A TOP FIVE PICK

Ed Reed and Pollyanna.

You must have missed the chemistry Browns QB's have had with those two over the years. Absolutely a great one is worth that pick, hands down. This is not your day or even my day NFL of David Fulcher type safeties, these guys have to be fast, athletic and capable of playing man and stuffing the box. When you can get a true playmaker there, you pull the trigger. It totally gives your defense huge flexibility.

[Shep]

I'm kinda open to the Eric Berry idea, because he is so versatile in what he can bring to a defense. He can play back, he can play up, he can blitz, he can tackle, he can cover the slot.

We're gonna need a lot of linemen to go ahead of us, man. And both QBs... although we're way worse at QB than anywhere else, so we're in a limbo of sorts until that's fixed.

But I'm open to Berry.

[NW Ohio Brownie]

Originally Posted by Shep

I'm kinda open to the Eric Berry idea, because he is so versatile in what he can bring to a defense. He can play back, he can play up, he can blitz, he can tackle, he can cover the slot.

We're gonna need a lot of linemen to go ahead of us, man. And both QBs... although we're way worse at QB than anywhere else, so we're in a limbo of sorts until that's fixed.

But I'm open to Berry.

You can't be serious about that. Look, I think Delhomme sucks out loud, but Mike Furrey started for us at safety the last two games. Mike Furrey.

Mike. Furrey.

[Enigmatic Evil]

Originally Posted by NW Ohio Brownie

You can't be serious about that. Look, I think Delhomme sucks out loud, but Mike Furrey started for us at safety the last two games. Mike Furrey.

Mike. Furrey.

+1

Mike Furrey did play Safety for 11 games for the Rams, he even lead their team in interceptions.

It's really hard to argue with that. A wide-out has no business playing Safety, that was just ridiculous and it felt like a *facepalm* kind of move. Yeah, I don't think there's a single one of us who doesn't wish we had better players at QB. Hell, I don't speak for everyone but I would've been more than happy sitting out another season of the Brady Quinn experiment than finding out if Jake Delhomme can pull a rabbit out of his hat. I understand what Holmgren believes JDH is bringing to the table but its really something I'm not looking forward to witness.

I think if there's a guy that you want, and you believe in, and you're picking in the top 5. It really shouldn't matter what position he plays, as long as he's a player that you're excited to see in your jersey and you believe that he will be a big deal. I think a lot of times that teams get caught up in the hype but really what does it matter what position they play? There's a ton of positions on both sides of the ball to worry about. If he's a guy that you want, and you're in the position to take him, it shouldn't matter. You take that guy and you live with it.

Maybe that's a bit nonchalant but its just how I feel about it, who cares if its a Safety or even an O-Lineman. If he's going to get the job done on the field, you take him.