The REALITY of the GREAT QB

[lemosley01]

Originally Posted by Greythan

Lemo, we've been through it a thousand times.

Your chances of landing a keeper in the first round is highest. However, the "bust" rate in first round QB's is also quite high. If you look at top 10 picks vs non top 10 picks you probably get to parity; meaning half the teams have to burn a top 10 pick to get their franchise guy where the other don't.

Higher hit rate for top 10 first round selection but bigger cost if you "bust".

Lower hit rate for beyond top 10 but lower cost if you "bust".

("Cost" here is opportunity cost in my eyes: e.g., what did we hurt by potentially "wasting" a 3rd round pick on McCoy?)

I'm not arguing that, but to make the statement 'just as easy to find them late 1st/2nd/3rd vs. early 1st isn't true. It's hard to to find them anywhere, but it gets harder the later a team waits.

It's true that the cost of missing used to be very high, but, monetarily, with the new rookie caps in place, that cost isn't as great - you don't have to stick with a guy 3, 4, 7 years (Alex Smith) because you have 50 million guaranteed in him. They'll still get paid a lot of guaranteed money, but teams will be able to cut bait with them without as big a loss (other than the missed opportunity) than in the past.

The cost will still be skewed as always, but I don't think the skew will be as bad - unless you give up 3 years of 1st round draft picks to move up to get someone and he busts: That seems to be where we are at right now.

IMO, if the FO is REALLY convinced this guy is going to turn into Manning and not Leaf, you simply have to do what you can do take him. Address the WRs through FA - WRs bust notoriously often for the positions they are taken. I'd rather take a proven FA and pay him $$$ than draft another Bray-bray Edwards and burn another 1st rounder, unless you have a guy like Calvin Johnson (who was a high character, hard-working, already skilled guy) coming out.

[Greythan]

Originally Posted by lemosley01

IMO, if the FO is REALLY convinced this guy is going to turn into Manning and not Leaf, you simply have to do what you can do take him. Address the WRs through FA - WRs bust notoriously often for the positions they are taken. I'd rather take a proven FA and pay him $$$ than draft another Bray-bray Edwards and burn another 1st rounder, unless you have a guy like Calvin Johnson (who was a high character, hard-working, already skilled guy) coming out.

Well said and I agree.

[Thaid_Up]

Originally Posted by lemosley01

I'm not arguing that, but to make the statement 'just as easy to find them late 1st/2nd/3rd vs. early 1st isn't true. It's hard to to find them anywhere, but it gets harder the later a team waits.

It's true that the cost of missing used to be very high, but, monetarily, with the new rookie caps in place, that cost isn't as great - you don't have to stick with a guy 3, 4, 7 years (Alex Smith) because you have 50 million guaranteed in him. They'll still get paid a lot of guaranteed money, but teams will be able to cut bait with them without as big a loss (other than the missed opportunity) than in the past.

The cost will still be skewed as always, but I don't think the skew will be as bad - unless you give up 3 years of 1st round draft picks to move up to get someone and he busts: That seems to be where we are at right now.

IMO, if the FO is REALLY convinced this guy is going to turn into Manning and not Leaf, you simply have to do what you can do take him. Address the WRs through FA - WRs bust notoriously often for the positions they are taken. I'd rather take a proven FA and pay him $$$ than draft another Bray-bray Edwards and burn another 1st rounder, unless you have a guy like Calvin Johnson (who was a high character, hard-working, already skilled guy) coming out.

nice post, Lem. Agree with the idea of giving up too much. Too many hole to fill to mortgage the future on 1 pick. Luck may be the real deal but whoever has that pick(and may not want him) are going to want the world for him. Worth that much??

[lemosley01]

Originally Posted by Thaid_Up

nice post, Lem. Agree with the idea of giving up too much. Too many hole to fill to mortgage the future on 1 pick. Luck may be the real deal but whoever has that pick(and may not want him) are going to want the world for him. Worth that much??

I can't say because I have seen basically nothing of him, and I'm not even close to an amateur QB guy.

I will say that if he turns into the next Peyton Manning or Joe Montana, the cost for him will look cheap.