Good stuff in this thread. Here's a nice summation of our draft, and a draft grade from our friend over at http://clevelandfrowns.com Quote:
It was what everyone expected from the beginning, yet somehow came to forget. With yesterday's selection of Joe Haden, the Browns filled a position of great need with an elite prospect, the top-ranked player at his position, one of the draft's top athletes, a three-year starter and two-time national championship winner from college football's elite conference who by all accounts is a good kid.
Even better, experts say that he still has "a great deal of upside," which makes sense because the former high school quarterback has only been playing cornerback for three years. The National Football Post's Wes Bunting goes as far as to say that Haden "[p]ossesses more upside than any corner in this year's draft and is only starting to scratch the surface of his potential."
With no franchise apparently willing to move up to the draft's seventh slot, it's especially hard to fault the Browns for declining to go in another direction here. While the feeling was that the air had been let out of Brownstown's balloon with the Chiefs' selection of Eric Berry, we have to assume that much of that air was pumped up by the football press's draft mis/over-analysis machine. Haden was everyone's guy two months ago when this process kicked off. In fact, Haden to the Browns felt like such an inevitability two months ago that there wasn't much to say about it at all; which would have been fine, unless you operated an NFL draft mis/over-analysis machine. So in the intervening two months we were treated to things like overblown concerns about 40-yard dash times, related reports about what Mike Lombardi "keeps hearing," and a wide-scale buy-in of the notion that Scott Pioli wouldn't draft the next Ed Reed/Polamalu because "highly drafted safeties are dangerous." And who could forget about Jared Odrick's tenure as a top ten pick?
For another reminder of how far we've come in this circle, it's worth a look back at one particularly stunning ESPN/Todd McShay pageview grab from early February ("Hey, look, Gerald McCoy will go first!")-- the first mock where anyone had Berry falling to seven (probably even the first mainstream mock that had anyone but Haden going to the Browns) -- in which McShay didn't call a single one of the top twenty picks correctly, and only one of the thirty-two picks in all.
After all this, hearing Haden's name called by the Browns last night was almost like meeting him again for the first time.
Of course, the trade for Sheldon Brown had an impact here too, and at least made Haden's selection less of an inevitability, but the secondary was a primary position of weakness even after the addition of Brown. The seemingly plausible idea of moving Brown to safety was floated in Philadelphia and discussed here, and while Tony Grossi wrote that "Mangini said there are no plans to move Brown to safety," it appears that he hasn't at all ruled out the possibility. "I think that you can never have too many good corners," Mangini said. "One of the things you've seen throughout the division . . . a lot of teams we play . . . have many good receivers. We're probably going to be in multiple-defensive-back sets, whether that's three corners or some combination of that. I have used corners in the past to play safety that have then come down and covered slot receivers so that you don't have to substitute." Relatedly, Mangini noted that, "[w]hoever the third [cornerback] is, those guys play between 300 and 500 plays and play a big role on special teams."
Reports that the Tebow-child told the Browns that he'd "take Haden with [him] wherever [he] goes" are encouraging; as well as that Haden "embodied all the core characteristics that [Mangini] seeks in a player." Per Grossi:"He did a great job the day he visited," Mangini said. "You could feel the intensity, feel the passion, you could see what a smart guy he was, how much he cared about playing football and continuing to improve. It was real. I don't think there was anybody that met him that didn't feel that way." All of which jibes with our earlier conclusion that Haden isn't a jerk. Haden comes from a relatively close-knit family, and has endured an intense personal tragedy in the accidental death of his college girlfriend. To the the idea that it's relatively hard to find "a young man who would be guaranteed at least $15 million and still stay hungry and determined," it's worth remembering that Haden's been driving nice cars since he was a teenager, having traded in a Mercedes for a 1997 Crown Victoria that had been painted "Gator-orange."
It's a nice thing that Haden won't need a new paint job, and that he gets to trade up again -- from Gator-blue to Brownie-brown.
----------
A related interesting bit about the Haden selection relates to highly questionable reports that the Browns' front office was "split" between Haden and Boise State cornerback Kyle Wilson.
Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports reported that: "This represents the first Holmgren/Mangini split on a pick. Mangini wants Wilson, Holmgren is nodding to Haden." Peter King said, "Make no mistake about it: Joe Haden is new GM Tom Heckert's man."
Without any more detail, we have to dismiss these reports as essentially meaningless. Of course, the sources of reports like this know that their leaks are sure to generate "intrigue" from the crowd. But why isn't the crowd's first reaction to ask where this information could possibly be coming from? Think, the Cleveland Browns as an organization has absolutely no interest in information about any front office split getting out -- remember, they're all "Cleveland Browns decisions" now. So if this source is from within the organization, it's a source that's acting outside of the interest of the organization; really, a mole. Of course, any such source has her/his own agenda, and thus is inherently not credible.
And why we should trust a source from outside of the organization (like say, someone from another front office whom the Browns might have called to see about trading down) as to this kind of information is anyone's guess. As we know, these guys are all trying to eat each others' lunches. Everyone in every NFL front office has an interest in making things harder on folks in the other front offices; and as we know, there are plenty in the media and in the NFL who've staked their reputations on the notion that Mangini is some kind of goon.
I'd love to hear a response from Peter King or Charles Robinson on these questions about their "reports," (yes, I am questioning their sources), but as long as the crowd keeps eating these reports up without asking the right questions, self-interested sources will keep floating them out there.
WKNR's Aaron Goldhammer, who spent the whole evening in Berea, told me last night that nobody in the Browns organization was seriously discussing Wilson with the seventh pick, and that any discussion about Wilson only related to trading down. Browns Draft Overview and Official Draft Grade
The original plan was to pack a comprehensive review of all seven of Cleveland's picks from the second and third days of the draft in one post, but with training camp nearly a full three months away there's no need to rush, and with so much information to cover, it will be better treated in several posts over the span of this week.
We'll start this morning with some big picture thoughts concluding with the release of our official final grade for this year's draft haul.
First, a question: What's a "reach"? Of course, big media's NFL draft mis/over-analysis machine doesn't shut down once the picks are made. A corollary to the all of the useless noise generated before the draft are the nearly-as-meaningless draft grades that the machine spits out in the days that follow.
Nearly as meaningless but not quite because at least the grades can take positional need into account, but where these grades seem to go especially bad is in their quickness to dub a particular pick a "reach." Mel Kiper's summary review of the Browns draft is typical of the rest here by echoing a common refrain in response to the second-round selections of T.J. Ward and Montario Hardesty. REACH ALERT! Cleveland clearly liked T.J. Ward, but could have gotten him later than No. 37. Montario Hardesty could be a really good back, but he's also been hurt, and again, it didn't seem necessary to trade up for him. It didn't seem necessary to trade up for Hardesty. Cleveland could have gotten Ward later than No. 37. And Kiper knows this because neither he nor his buddy McShay had either player ranked as highly as the Browns did. Or is it because NFL franchises are so transparent with respect to their draft plans that Kiper knows just where Ward and Hardesty were ranked on every other team's board?
On the other side of this coin are the Ratbirds who everyone (including Kiper) is lauding this morning because they landed in Sergio Kindle and Terrence Cody a pair of big name guys from big name programs (2009 B.C.S. title game programs, actually) who slid further than the "experts" had them pegged.
So you see how this works? First, Kiper and McShay rank the players highly, credibility enhanced by the players' status as big names on BCS title game programs ("Hey, I've seen those guys on TV so they must be good!"), then when the players slip, it's not Kiper and McShay who were wrong about them, it's the 31 NFL franchises who passed on them. "Kindle and Cody both in the second round!?!? We love them!!! A-plus-plus-plus-plus!!"
Actually, how about triple-D? If you want to feel at least a little bit better about the Ratbirds' draft, and your breakfast is already safely digested, have a look here (WARNING: VERY NSFW). It's understood that Ozzie Newsome's resume contributes to the grades here; the point is that Ozzie's resume might be the only truly significant factor contributing to these grades. As reader Josh points out via email, former "can't miss" types who end up slipping in the draft might even throw up bigger red-flags because it means that all 32 teams have effectively cut through all of the media-manufactured hype to find major flaws, despite that the knowledge that the picks would be popular with fans.
Now back to the Browns, it's one thing to call a player a reach when he's selected in the draft's top ten picks, or even in the first round, but the notion of a "reach" for a player in the second round who the draftniks had going in the third or even the fourth round is a joke. Let's assume for now that the Browns and at least some other NFL clubs have taken a much closer look at the Browns' draftees than either Kiper or McShay. The Browns' big board is what matters the most here. If you like the guy, damn the rest and go get him. When engaging in such an inexact science, the worst thing to do is overthink.
----------
When engaging in such an inexact science, you have to go with what you know. Like that you can't coach toughness. Toughness, the word of the weekend in Brownstown.
Here's CBSSports.com on T.J. Ward:USC's Taylor Mays gets all of the attention, but Pac-10 receivers will tell you that the undersized, under-appreciated Ward is every bit the intimidating hitter across the middle.
What Ward lacks in size, he more than makes up for in versatility, toughness and aggression. At minimum, he should make an immediate impact on special teams. His big hitting and reliable open-field tackling should earn him a starting position in the deep secondary early in his career. And ESPN: He is a tough run-stopper and can hold his own in coverage. Now CBS on Montario Hardesty: Quickly impressing Lane Kiffin and his staff with his work ethic and toughness, Hardesty emerged as the starter over highly touted freshmen Bryce Brown. And on 5th round pick Larry Asante, CBS: Asante nicknamed himself "The Assassin" after arriving at Nebraska because he wanted to be the physical, aggressive hitter teams seek at the position. Opposing ballcarriers can attest to the idea that he's lived up to that label, using his size and athleticism to be one of the top thumpers in this year's draft. And ESPN: [H]e's a tough run-stopper who fills hard and flashes the ability to deliver the big hit. He also has enough range to cover the deep half of the field when he makes sounds reads. And since you can't really coach character either, more from CBS on Hardesty: Characterized as the consummate teammate. Twice voted team captain, including in 2008 when he wasn't a starter. Convinced team to let him play special teams against Wyoming despite his injuries being too much to allow him to suit up as a running back. And Ward: In addition, he has excellent instincts and work ethic. It seems relevant that Asante earned his degree in Economics from Nebraska last December as well (which, incidentally, means that he's not on track to earn his degree next December as reported by Mary Kay Cabot on Saturday).
Which all seems to be in good contrast with criticisms that Ward is "aggressive and can be beaten deep over the top against good play-action;" that Asante "doesn't show great hands or time his jumps well;" or that Hardesty "runs high."
Does anyone remember what they said about Darrelle Revis when he came out of Pittsburgh, before he was coached up? We'll look into it.
----------
Now, of course, health is another thing you can't coach, and another contributing factor to the Browns' relatively low draft grades are the personal medical histories of Hardesty (three knee surgeries) and Ward (two season-ending knee injuries, one season ending ankle injury). But the NFL releases a laundry list of player injuries every week of its season, and if there's a list somewhere of players who've come back from season-ending injuries to begin or resume productive careers, we assume it's a long one. There are reports out there suggesting that knee injuries might be less serious than others; and there's also the idea that a young player returning from serious injury might have better work habits and take better care of his health than the rest. Worth remembering here is that another decent Tennessee running back, Jamal Lewis, missed most of his sophomore season due to a torn LCL. Related to the above on "reaches," we have to assume that the Browns' medical staff did its homework here.
---------- The most confusing thing about this draft is that the Browns were able to score USF receiver Carlton Mitchell in the draft's sixth round. I've been doing my best to figure out how this pick isn't an absolute steal. I'll have much more on Mitchell in a comprehensive profile later this week, but for now, a few bits from his CBS profile to help raise the question: A physical receiver in the mold of Denver's Brandon Marshall, Mitchell became the Big East Conference's premier deep threat as a junior, despite missing several games with an ankle sprain. He played in just 37 games for the Bulls, but he set both the school career (1,648) and season (706 in 2009) records for receiving yardage.
"Carlton can flat fly," USF wide receivers coach Phil McGeoghan stated recently. "He has all the tools, all the ability. He is very diligent in his route running and his assignments. He is getting better, I see him improving everyday. He comes out here, works early and stays late. Carlton Mitchell is just a very talented guy who is big, tall, athletic, and has all the gifts you want in a receiver." No one can question his athletic bloodlines. Mitchell also performed on the USF track team, competing in the 400 meters and the long jump during the 2007-08 outdoor campaign. His father, Carl Mitchell played professional basketball in Europe. Even his mother, Angela, has long ties to the sports industry. She presently serves as the "cut man" for professional boxer, Antonio Tarver. * * *
Carlton has surprising quickness for his size but needs to refine his route running to take advantage of that explosive speed. He is intense but inconsistent as a pass catcher. But once he gets the ball, his ability to get up to top speed in a couple of steps usually leaves defenders taking a bad angle. His run-after-the-catch talent will make him especially dangerous on screens and quick slants. Now, again, Mitchell's route running and pass catching seem like things that are easy enough to teach if the kid's willing to work. And the criticism might be a result of his having played in a run-oriented offense both in high school and college (per CBS, Mitchell's high school played "a ball controlled offense that limited him to nine catches for 207 yards as a junior," which is literally nothing (as you might confirm by checking the Revere High School record books for the 1996 stats of a certain 6'0 180 pound all-hands no-block all-arms no-legs tight end (Fourteen for 250, read 'em and weep, Mitchell!)), and likely says more about Mitchell's coaches than anything else.
And maybe his quarterbacks too, as Matt Grothe, the Big East's career leader in total offense who'd started 41 consecutive games for USF was injured in the season's third week to be replaced by a redshirt freshman. There's no telling how highly Mitchell would have been drafted had USF not suffered this loss.
Finally, a big physical receiver with explosive speed who can stretch the field. Getting this kid on the field should be a priority for the Browns' coaching staff. Here's hoping they're all over this guy from day 1.
----------
Which brings us to the last summary point, that likely applies more to Colt McCoy than it does to Mitchell: Lucky is good.
This is in response to those who question the drafting of McCoy at #85 by noting that if he was really the Browns' "guy," they'd have taken him sooner. But that McCoy might not have been deemed worth a pick before #85 doesn't mean he won't end up an excellent value there. That the Browns chose to address other needs first is more likely to have been the result of incomplete information rather than affirmatively "bad" information on McCoy. That the Browns were able to address other pressing needs and still land McCoy results in McCoy coming into a better situation than if he'd been drafted sooner, and with less pressure. It's not just the Browns luck that caused McCoy to fall, but their own (hopefully) good decisions to address other needs that contributed as well. And those same good decisions will contribute to any success McCoy is to enjoy as a Brown. In a world of scarce resources and imperfect information, you make your own luck by setting your priorities and doing the best you can.
----------
Which get us to our official final grade for the Browns 2010 draft:
/drumroll/ OUR OFFICIAL FINAL GRADE FOR THE BROWNS' 2010 DRAFT: "SEE-PLUS"
We see all kinds of good reasons why the 2010 draft might turn out to be a very good one for the Browns, plus, we look forward to seeing how it turns out.
| |