Who wins the Super Bowl, QB-wise?

[Riffer X]

Elway is always an interesting discussion. Many people like to count him as one of the greatest, and he probably is. However, the dude was widely disliked in Denver and considered a disappointment up until The Drive, his 5th year in the league. He took a lot of shit from Denver fans and the national media alike.

Sure, much of it stemmed from his widely unpopular decision to dick the Colts and plus he played minor league for the hated Spankees, but he was not considered a success by a real long shot. Think about that, it took him almost a full 5 years until he made a name for himself with one drive that was aided by Marty Ball and the Browns fucking up all game long. You could even say the Karlis FG is still a point of discussion.

My point has really nothing to do with the fine debate going on, just an observation. Five years is a long time, then you figure in he couldn't win the SB or even compete in it until they got Davis. Ironically, he was past his prime when they finally won it all.

[Sez.EJ]

Elway was so bad his first year they called him the 7 mil dollar bust.. . also eli did not play in the superbowl for the team that drafted him either.

[hammertime]

this thread has got me thinking.

we should play the odds on a #1 pick.


Jamarcus Russell could be the guy. nahhh.....

[Crow]

Originally Posted by mz.

No, it doesn't, but there's generally a reason why those later round QB's don't get a chance at starting...they aren't very good.

Yes. I agree.

At the same time though the data doesn't prove a point I agree with already.

[Shep]

HUH? I was in a quagmire on the early round quarterback debate????

HUH???

Dude, that's a slam dunk. SI has covered it, Sobo has covered it, and I have covered it. We've shown beyond any shadow of a doubt that QB is the most first round-centric position in football, and that if you wanna find your own starting QB in the draft, you'll almost certainly have to use a first round pick.

Quarterbacks drafted after round 1 who have become quality long term starters for their original team: Romo and Brady. That's it.

Quagmire? Dude, I've weaved shiny gold brilliance on this topic!! You can't just say shit and demean my phenomenal tomes on the topic! Respect, bro! RESPECT!!

It's a quarterback league... and quarterback is a first round position. As we say in advertising, "You know what you know." So nobody's exactly shocked by this news.

Originally Posted by DawgFan

I LOVE THE DEBATE...and the info you brought in was great. In fact, until Shep said that the later round guys were NOT ON THE ORIGINAL TEAM that drafted them....I thought you had the issue nailed down pretty good. Alas....Shep's distaste for late rd QB's led him into a quagmire that bit him (and you) on the buttocks.

Keep it coming. I love the QB debate.

[mz.]

Originally Posted by Crow

At the same time though the data doesn't prove a point I agree with already.

Well, the funny thing about data is that it...........................

[DawgFan]

Originally Posted by Shep

HUH? I was in a quagmire on the early round quarterback debate????

HUH???

Dude, that's a slam dunk. SI has covered it, Sobo has covered it, and I have covered it. We've shown beyond any shadow of a doubt that QB is the most first round-centric position in football, and that if you wanna find your own starting QB in the draft, you'll almost certainly have to use a first round pick.

Quarterbacks drafted after round 1 who have become quality long term starters for their original team: Romo and Brady. That's it.

Quagmire? Dude, I've weaved shiny gold brilliance on this topic!! You can't just say shit and demean my phenomenal tomes on the topic! Respect, bro! RESPECT!!

It's a quarterback league... and quarterback is a first round position. As we say in advertising, "You know what you know." So nobody's exactly shocked by this news.

Then explain why only 25% of the last 16 SB's were won by QB's that were 1st round draft picks OF THE TEAM THEY WON THE SB WITH???

[DawgFan]

Or better yet...here is the list in the past 20 years of all the QB's that were DRAFTED and WON THE SB by the same team:

Ben Roethlesburger
Peyton Manning
Troy Aikman

Out of those, I would say Peyton and Troy were the only 2 that didn't rely HEAVILY on the DEFENSE and RUNNING GAME....but both didn't do it WITHOUT them being decent.

[Legacy Fan]

Originally Posted by DawgFan

Or better yet...here is the list in the past 20 years of all the QB's that were DRAFTED and WON THE SB by the same team:

Ben Roethlesburger
Peyton Manning
Troy Aikman

Out of those, I would say Peyton and Troy were the only 2 that didn't rely HEAVILY on the DEFENSE and RUNNING GAME....but both didn't do it WITHOUT them being decent.

That's a crazy small list. To get less technical & precise, you could even add Eli & Elway to that list, and it's still incredibly small. Maybe Favre too. Still not favorable data for drafting your own 1st rd QB.

Time to start scanning the NFL classifieds.

[hammertime]

If i'm right then the general consensus is that you need a first round qb.

whether or not you draft him yourself or not.

i wonder if we tilt the data it will show that we can be a playoff team with a 2nd rounder or worse. we'd all like playoffs right? And this #1 qb isn't just gonna fall into our laps. There is a small handful of #1 qb that were touted as highly as a Manning. By all the "experts".

And whether or not you use data as the end all be all there really isn't enough data to keep up with the way the nfl has changed. The only steadfast is that you need a decent qb no matter what.

[Shep]

Originally Posted by DawgFan

Or better yet...here is the list in the past 20 years of all the QB's that were DRAFTED and WON THE SB by the same team:

Ben Roethlesburger
Peyton Manning
Troy Aikman

Out of those, I would say Peyton and Troy were the only 2 that didn't rely HEAVILY on the DEFENSE and RUNNING GAME....but both didn't do it WITHOUT them being decent.

First, you overlayed two statistical discussions.

MZ made the point that Super Bowl winning QBs are more likely to come from round 1 than all the other possible sources combined.

I said quarterbacks who start for an extended period of time for their original team are found in round one.

Both are true. You start overlaying stats, the numbers are gonna go down.

But Elway ONLY played for his original team. He was never a Colt. You have to add him to the list and he's a multiple.

But this is true: Few journeymen have left an impression on Super Bowl lore. Most of the guys who at least went multiple times were monogamous and basically homegrown (drafted by their only team or traded for very early).

Starr, Dawson, Bradshaw, Montana, Staubach, Aikman, Kelley, Marino, Elway, Favre, Brady, Roethlisberger, and Manning all meet that description. And they eat up most of Super Bowl history.

Bradshaw, Staubach, Aikman, Kelley, Marino, Elway, Ben, and Manning were all first round picks. I'm pretty sure that's what I saw on the Cowboys history doc on NFLN. Favre was very much LIKE a first round pick by the Packers, who traded a first rounder for the previous year's 33rd pick who hadn't played much at all.

Again... not a huge shocker. And I think as scouting gets more and more sophisticated, we'll see even fewer Romo and Brady tales... and they're like Yeti as it is.

All that said... I am intrigued b the second round guys. It used to be the black hole of QBs.

[Shep]

Well said. For a few years now, you either have a top quarterback... or you're not really relevant.

Originally Posted by hammertime

If i'm right then the general consensus is that you need a first round qb.

whether or not you draft him yourself or not.

i wonder if we tilt the data it will show that we can be a playoff team with a 2nd rounder or worse. we'd all like playoffs right? And this #1 qb isn't just gonna fall into our laps. There is a small handful of #1 qb that were touted as highly as a Manning. By all the "experts".

And whether or not you use data as the end all be all there really isn't enough data to keep up with the way the nfl has changed. The only steadfast is that you need a decent qb no matter what.