Who wins the Super Bowl, QB-wise?

[golfer704u]

Originally Posted by Shep

Some GM said it about like that, MZ: He basically said, "Saying you're going to avoid missing on a highly drafted quarterback by not trying is like saying you're going to avoid missing a target by not shooting."

Or you can shoot yourself in the head looking into the barrel of the gun trying to figure out what went wrong last time you shot.....

[Shep]

Originally Posted by golfer704u

Or you can shoot yourself in the head looking into the barrel of the gun trying to figure out what went wrong last time you shot.....

Not sure what that means, metaphorically, but it's funny as hell. Good to have you back.

[golfer704u]

Originally Posted by Shep

Not sure what that means, metaphorically, but it's funny as hell. Good to have you back.

yeah it didn't work as well as it sounded in my head. But I guess I'd rather try and miss than not shoot at all.....

[Shep]

Originally Posted by golfer704u

yeah it didn't work as well as it sounded in my head. But I guess I'd rather try and miss than not shoot at all.....

Okay, that ended up being really fucking profound... and it means YOU are that GM behind the quote!!

[Flugel]

Originally Posted by Shep

Tom... those are more anomalies, cute "WHA-?" factoids. The don't change the bigger picture at all.

Don't misunderstand: I truly LIKE the anomalies, the rare guy who slips through and becomes a serious player in this league at the QB position. But acting like it's NOT an exception not only ruins the fun... it's just smearing reality.

Whether you're listing the quarterbacks who define the Super Bowl, the best quarterbacks in the league now, "starting quarterbacks" as a whole... any of it... it's really clear that quarterback is a first round proposition.

I love Matt Schaub. I loved him when he came out, when I was anything BUT a fledgling draftnick. I just was surprised that he didn't go higher. They talked about his limited running ability... and my thought was, "I thought he was gonna play quarterback?"

I wanted him on the Browns. My sense of him in college and preseason and then those spot starts was that he would be a big time starting QB for a very long time. Tom will back me up on this, because as I recall, he didn't dig Schaub or the idea of getting him.

Schaub was a third round pick. I didn't NOT like him because of it. In fairness, I also liked Andrew Walter, though (!).

For the record, so I'm out in front of it? I didn't like Kolb. I still think he throws ugly, lots of wobblers. I do like Henne, however.

I like smart guys who seem like leaders, have enough arm, a quick release, can throw a consistent spiral... and are ACCURATE. I'm not all that hung up on running ability, hulking size, or a cannon arm.

I'm rambling. Sorry.

Here's WHY I think the draft is still a crap shoot at the QB position:
We can keep pretending teams aren't finding the Tony Romos, Tom Bradys, Kurt Warners and Matt Schaubs AFTER round 2 today. However, I'm still seeing alot of BAD first round QBs being drafted the last 15 years. Those fans throwing parades for 1st round QBs never like hearing these 1st round selections aren't very highly regarded across the country: Ryan Leaf, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Cade McNown, David Carr, JP Blowsman, Alex Smith, Jamarcus Russell, Bryon's Leftshoe, Kordell Stewart, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart, and many more... For some reason, we're always being asked to pretend these guys don't exist from the philosophy/perspective believing there's no longer a draftday crapshoot.

IMO, it's still very possible for more Jamarcus Russells to sport workout false positives that fooled and impressed alot of people prior to today's hindsight 20/20. Here's why: I don't think CONTROLLED pro day workouts measure poise & accuracy under pressure, improvise, time constraints, bad line induced mechanics/release altering throws, zone blitz schemes dictating receiving route alterations during the play, there's no receivers getting pressed at the line of scrimmage or DBs right on the hip pockets of these receivers at pro days. Instead, these workouts play to the QBs strengths and allow them to step INTO the throws that the collapsing pockets of NFL teams in transition will NOT allow them to do.

Therefore, if I'm a bad team in position to draft a top QB prospect that watched alot of film on Bradys Quinns - I already know he can do surgery on a Michigan State defense. Therefore, I need to see more of what he can do when he faces defenses that can challenge all of the following: time to throw, mechanics, release, reaction time to aggressive zone blitzes, matchup favorability, favorite receiver getting pressed out of primary target consideration, etc. These controlled QB workouts at pro days have yet to show me what a Kyle Boller does when a fast NFL defense requires him to read and react to the complexity of the NFL at the SPEED of the NFL. When you break out the film of Quinn facing LSU - that's MORE of an apples to apples of the overwhelming matchups awaiting him at the next level on a team in transition.
- Tom F.

[Flugel]

Originally Posted by Riffer X

Elway is always an interesting discussion. Many people like to count him as one of the greatest, and he probably is. However, the dude was widely disliked in Denver and considered a disappointment up until The Drive, his 5th year in the league. He took a lot of shit from Denver fans and the national media alike.

Sure, much of it stemmed from his widely unpopular decision to dick the Colts and plus he played minor league for the hated Spankees, but he was not considered a success by a real long shot. Think about that, it took him almost a full 5 years until he made a name for himself with one drive that was aided by Marty Ball and the Browns fucking up all game long. You could even say the Karlis FG is still a point of discussion.

My point has really nothing to do with the fine debate going on, just an observation. Five years is a long time, then you figure in he couldn't win the SB or even compete in it until they got Davis. Ironically, he was past his prime when they finally won it all.

Great point. I remember the pregame shows in the post season of the drive talkign about how impatient the Denver fans had been growign with Elway and how Reeves stuck up for him. I remember it like it was yesterday.

And Elway didn't WIN his first Superbowl until Terrell Davis came there. As outrageous as this sounds, Elway was actually a better QB during the years when Denver was LOSING their Superbowls. The year Manning finally won a SB - his post season was 3 TDs to 7 INTs so it wasn't really him being clutch. That also wasn't one of his greatest seasons.

And does anyone REALLY believe Jeff Hostetler was a better QB than Jim Kelly when NY had SB record scoring drives of 13 minutes and 11 minutes? Look it up. Really cool stuff. Bruce Smith kept trying to pick a side of Jumbo Elliott to exploit and the Giants ran right off Elliott's rear end. Brilliant game plans of eating clock and knowing exactly where/how to attack.
- Tom F.

[DawgFan]

Here are the complete stats on the QB's that win SB's:

44 Superbowls

23 Superbowls WON by 1st Round Draft Picks
15 of those were won by THE TEAM THAT DRAFTED THEM

So Only 1/3rd of all Superbowls were won by a team that drafted a 1st rd QB

28 Different WINNING QB's
8 Number of WINNING QB's that were drafted by the team that won the Superbowl

So less than 30% of all Superbowl winning QB's are 1st rounders drafted by the same team

MODERN ERA (Post 1990)

20 Superbowls

10 Won by 1st Round Draft Picks
5 of those were won by the TEAM THAT DRAFTED THEM

So only 25% of MODERN ERA Superbowls were won by a team that drafted a 1st rd QB

14 Different Winning QB's in the MODERN ERA
3 of those QB's that were drafted by the team that won the Superbowl

So only just over 20% of all winning QB's in the MODERN ERA were 1st rd QB's drafted by the same team.



Overall...1st rd QB's do win the majority of superbowls. The problem is, especially in the MODERN ERA...they are not necessarily winning them for the team that INITIALLY DRAFTED THEM.

When only 3 first round QB's have won Superbowls for the team that drafted them...you cannot say that drafting a 1st round QB is the BEST/ONLY way to get to the Superbowl and win it.

In fact, it is LESS COMMON NOW than it used to be.

Look at the facts:
Superbowls won by 1st rd QB's
Before 1990: 13
After 1990: 10

Superbowls won by 1st rd QB's on Drafting Team:
Before 1990: 10
After 1990: 5

Number of QB's drafted in 1st rd that won SB's:
Before 1990: 5
After 1990: 3

I am just saying, the TREND seems to be that teams are giving up on QB's...even 1st rounders...faster than before....and that DRAFTING a 1st rd QB may be less of a lock than picking up somebody else's first round castoff.

[mz.]

Good work, John!

That being said, I like the Jason Campbell signing in OAK, for example. I mean, they're not going to win a SB or anything, but he's an example of a first rounder who could potentially make good on his second stop.

Here's a thought: 1st round quarterbacks, more often than not, end up on shitty teams. They do poorly on said shitty team for myriad reasons (team around him sucks, coaching staff sucks, he sucks, etc.), gets cast off, latches onto a (possibly) better situation and, combining that with the fact that he's now experienced, he thrives.

[DawgFan]

Originally Posted by mz.

Good work, John!

That being said, I like the Jason Campbell signing in OAK, for example. I mean, they're not going to win a SB or anything, but he's an example of a first rounder who could potentially make good on his second stop.

Here's a thought: 1st round quarterbacks, more often than not, end up on shitty teams. They do poorly on said shitty team for myriad reasons (team around him sucks, coaching staff sucks, he sucks, etc.), gets cast off, latches onto a (possibly) better situation and, combining that with the fact that he's now experienced, he thrives.

Exactly...if you look at the 3 MODERN ERA 1st Rd success (P.Manning/B.Roethlisburger/T.Aikman)...Aikman was considered a BUST for his first couple years....then he got a team around him and flourished.

Peyton Manning ended up on a team that was 9-7 just a year (1996) before but slipped due to injuries...and Ben...the Steelers were a playoff team a year before (2002) but slipped to 6-10 and got him.

In other words...2 of the 3 successes were drafted by SUCCESSFUL/GOOD TEAMS!!!

[King of Kings]

Made we should trade for Matt Leinart...... Just throwing it out there.....

[Shep]

Teams that win over a period of time draft or acquire a young quarterback and keep him for a decade or so. It really is the paradigm of winning football... and championship football.

Bradshaw and the Steelers (1st)
Montana and the Niners (3rd)
Aikman and the Cowboys (1st)
Favre and the Packers (33rd, acquired with 1st)
Elway and the Broncos (1st)
Brady and the Patriots (6th)
Manning and the Colts (1st)
Roethlisberger and the Steelers (1st)

Not to be redundant, but that's a pretty good history of modern NFL football in just eight quarterbacks. This is the goal. This is what GMs and owners look at and say, "That's what I want to do."

Hell, throw in some of the hard luck stories, teams that went to the tourney year after year after year, but never won it all:

Fouts and the Chargers (1st)
Kelly and the Bills (1st)
Marino and the Dolphins (1st)
McNabb and Eagles (1st)

Every single one of these QBs is either in the Hall or headed there, with the conceivable exceptions of McNabb and Ben. They both still have a shot, though. These are the top QBs of the past 40 years of football. They dominated statistically and in victories. They were or are the faces of the NFL.

9 of the 12 were first round draft picks. A 10th was a 33rd pick acquired with a 1st round pick. Only Montana (3rd) and Brady (6th) are real exceptions. This is the reality of the league you follow.

And John, I HEARTILY disagree with your perception of the trend. If the top quarterbacks right now are Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Rivers, Favre, and Roethlisberger (again, winning teams and Pro Bowlers), only Brees' career will be defined by his second team. 5 are with their original teams and Favre is squeezing in a second twilight year with the Vikings.

[DawgFan]

Originally Posted by Shep

Teams that win over a period of time draft or acquire a young quarterback and keep him for a decade or so. It really is the paradigm of winning football... and championship football.

I finally understand where the disconnect is. You are listing a RESULT as a METHOD.

Simple...you do not keep a QB for a decade or so UNLESS they are winning and winning championships....so the ONLY QB's that qualify for your criteria are ON WINNING TEAMS!

I am looking at HOW they became winners. Where did they start? What kind of team did they join? What kind of defense was there? What kind of stability existed BEFORE they were drafted.

THAT is the METHOD. Ending up with a SB is the RESULT of the method.

Things only work one way...FORWARD....so if you start with the end product, your results are always biased and the formula is invalid.

Sorry Shep...you got it BACKWARDS.