PFF, with Browns analytics and Kevin Meers draft value chart math in mind, says:
Pats get: 12th overall and a 4th rounder
Browns get: Garoppolo and the 32nd overall
Pats get: Titans 2017 2nd rounder and Eagles 2018 2nd rounder (both of which the Browns own)
Browns get: Garoppolo + the (likely) 3rd round comp pick back from the Collins deal.
The Browns’ analytical approach can actually be pretty easily determined (besides what value they place on Garoppolo), because their current Director of Research and Strategy, Kevin Meers, wrote an article several years ago that took Jimmy Johnson’s famous draft trade value chart and made some much needed updates. He uses Pro Football Reference’s Career Approximate Values (CAV) to determine what each pick’s true value is, and while that’s not a perfect way to determine player value, it gives us insight as to how the Browns approach the draft and this potential trade.
Jimmy Garoppolo was the 62nd pick in the 2014 draft, and in this year’s draft, the Browns hold the first, 12th, 33rd, 50th, and 65th picks, while the Patriots have the 32nd, 64th, and 96th picks in the first three rounds (the Patriots potentially have a compensatory third-round pick acquired in the Jamie Collins trade). Initial reports/sources stated the Patriots wanted compensation similar to what the Eagles received in the Sam Bradford trade—a first and fourth-round pick. Considering the Browns have two first-round picks, they have the ammunition to make this happen, and also considering that the Patriots don’t have a fourth-round pick in the 2018 draft, the 12th overall pick and a fourth-round pick next year is in line with what New England wants.
However, I don’t see this scenario happening, as the Browns’ analytical approach covets draft picks, and if that fourth-round pick Cleveland trades is near the top of the round, that package is the equivalent of the fourth overall pick in the draft, based on the chart. Simply put, increasing the value of Garoppolo 58 spots in the draft based on six quarters of play is unlikely. A more likely scenario of the first- and fourth-round picks playing out is if the teams swap first-round picks, which places Garoppolo’s value at the No. 33 pick. Any conversation that starts with a straight first and fourth for Garoppolo won’t have legs when it comes to the Browns.
Another popular trade scenario is trading two second-round picks for Garoppolo. If the Browns trade both of their later second-round picks in 2017 (pick 50) and in 2018 (not set, but assume 50 again), that’s valuing Garoppolo as the 10th overall pick—another unlikely trade scenario. If the Patriots were to throw in their third-round pick (perhaps the compensatory pick they got in the Collins trade), that puts the value of Garoppolo as a late first-round pick, and closer to that No. 33 slot, like in the previous scenario.
Again, we have no idea how the Browns value Garoppolo, and a trade between the two teams will heavily rely on that, but expect the value of the Patriots’ backup to be closer to No. 33 than No. 12, and therefore a package deal that ends up with the Browns holding both their first-round picks and parting with some second-round picks in exchange for Garoppolo and another later-round pick.
So, who makes the move?
Of all the teams vying for Jimmy Garoppolo, the Browns have the most ammunition to make it happen. Both the Browns and the Bears have made several trades with the Patriots over the past two years, so the line of communication is open with the relationships positive. As promising as Garoppolo looked in limited action, he’s arguably a bigger risk than drafting one of the top QBs, since the team acquiring him will need to give him a big extension and commit a large sum of money to an unproven player. If Garoppolo is that good and Belichick trades him, expect him to most likely land in Chicago where he won’t contend with New England for the AFC title.
Last edited by OconRecon; 02-11-2017 at 08:12 PM.
Reason: messed up Option 1 on initial post
2017 Draft picks: #1, #12, #33, #52, #65, #108, #145, #175, #181, #185, #188 - 11 total
2018 Draft picks: Extra picks - Two in 2nd (Eagles/Wentz & Texans/Osweiler), a 4th (Panthers/A.Lee), & a 6th (Steelers/Gilbert) - 11 total
Philly trade result: C. Coleman, S. Coleman, Kessler, Drango, Kindred, 2017 #12 (Eagles) & #52 (Titans), 2018 2nd rnd (Eagles) pick
Draft: 4/28-30, Rookie MiniCamp: 5/12-14, OTA's: 5/23-6/8, Veteran MiniCamp: 6/13-15