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Thread: Drafts and Mocks - The Countdown to the draft (Part Two)

  1. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Martin Eden View Post
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    There are more examples of 1st round QBs who were thought to be great prospects who ended up being busts than there are guys like Carr, Brady, Dak, Wilson being much better than graded.
    Source?

    My sense is that if you tallied the ratio of first round QB successes/failures to later round drafted QB success/failures, the first round ratio would be more favorable albeit still far from a sure thing.

    Using Brady is simply the ultimate cherry pick considering the slate of recent QBs on their way to the HOF over indexes with guys selected in the first round (or more aptly with a team's first pick in said draft). Manning, Rodgers, Big Ben, etc.

    I'm open to seeing the data but my hunch is that the first round remains the most reliable/probable path to finding your championship caliber QB.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Greythan View Post
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    Source?

    My sense is that if you tallied the ratio of first round QB successes/failures to later round drafted QB success/failures, the first round ratio would be more favorable albeit still far from a sure thing.

    Using Brady is simply the ultimate cherry pick considering the slate of recent QBs on their way to the HOF over indexes with guys selected in the first round (or more aptly with a team's first pick in said draft). Manning, Rodgers, Big Ben, etc.

    I'm open to seeing the data but my hunch is that the first round remains the most reliable/probable path to finding your championship caliber QB.
    I said there are more first round busts than late round successes, and I'm talking ELITE QBs, not simply decent ones. Of course there are historically more 1st round picks who end up being elite NFL QBs than late round picks who end up being elite. I never said or insinuated otherwise. I was talking only about 1st round QB busts, never mentioned 1st round QB successes.

    There are more Blaine Gabbarts and Johnny Manziels and Christian Ponders and Jamarcus Russels who are drafted in the first round and end up being busts than there are late round picks who end up being great, like Brady, Carr, etc. My point only being that it's hard to get college QB evaluations right.

    Struggling with reading comprehension or what?
    "That is the long *%#@ of truth that you both continue to juggle around your mouth..."
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  3. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Martin Eden View Post
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    Struggling with reading comprehension or what?
    Sorry, your post wasn't clear and I'm still left struggling with the point. I don't see a correlation between first round busts/later round successes and the point that finding a good/great QB is hard. There are likely more first round busts than later round HOFers at every position, right?

    Maybe explain it to me again, or you I guess you can keep being a condescending prick.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Greythan View Post
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    If they had conviction on Carr's ability to be a top 10/15 level NFL passer, I just don't see how their plan was to let everyone have a whack at him and be confident he'd fall to them in the 2nd round.
    There's no way on the planet they knew how good he would be and passed on him in the 1st, no matter how good they thought MAck would be.

    I'm sure they liked Carr and that's why they drafted him. But I agree with you that they were lucky and didn't grade him near as good as he turned out.
    "That is the long *%#@ of truth that you both continue to juggle around your mouth..."
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    Quote Originally Posted by Greythan View Post
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    I don't see a correlation between first round busts/later round successes and the point that finding a good/great QB is hard.
    Quote Originally Posted by Martin Eden View Post
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    My point only being that it's hard to get college QB evaluations right.
    Whatever. . . QB is the penultimate position, there are only a few guys in the world who can be great NFL QBs. History shows us that just because you're a first round QB pick doesn't mean you're going to be a great NFL QB. And while this is also true for all positions, it's glaringly true about the QB position.

    The memory of how bad a pick Justin Gilbert was will fade from our memory long before the debacle known as JFF being a first round bust will.

    Again. . . my point is that it's very hard to evaluate how a college QB's ability will translate to the NFL. If you can't understand how high draft pick busts and later draft pick successes contribute to my assertion that evaluating college QBs is difficult, I can't help you.
    "That is the long *%#@ of truth that you both continue to juggle around your mouth..."
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  6. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Martin Eden View Post
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    If you can't understand how high draft pick busts and later draft pick successes contribute to my assertion that evaluating college QBs is difficult, I can't help you.
    No need to help me. I thought maybe you were trying to say something more insightful than evaluating QBs is difficult.
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  7. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Greythan View Post
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    Sorry, your post wasn't clear and I'm still left struggling with the point. I don't see a correlation between first round busts/later round successes and the point that finding a good/great QB is hard. There are likely more first round busts than later round HOFers at every position, right?

    Maybe explain it to me again, or you I guess you can keep being a condescending prick.
    Hey! Prick is my montra damn it!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Martin Eden View Post
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    I'm sure they liked Carr and that's why they drafted him. But I agree with you that they were lucky and didn't grade him near as good as he turned out.
    Here is how I think the luck played out.

    I had Bridgewater as the only near ready QB but was afraid of how frail he looked.

    Bortles the number one project for height, a decent arm and made a difference on a good UCF team.

    Two not as tall projects:
    A. 'He who must not be named'
    B. Carr

    When the Raiders got to their second pick they were fortunate that Bortles went #3, Bridgewater went #32 AND a team had picked 'He who must not be named' at 22.

    Had that team picked Carr then the Raiders would have taken 'He who must not be named' and we would have a story Clevelanders would have liked a lot better.

    GO BROWNS!
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  9. #33
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    Hue has stated the guy he likes at QB will not be there at 12. If the Browns are not able to move up the board to procure said QB, they have failed the draft. For a political pick.

    I can't stand it when a player whines to me or his teammates or his wife or the writers or anyone else.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBestPlayersPlay View Post
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    Hue has stated the guy he likes at QB will not be there at 12.
    Unless he has access to 11 teams draft boards, this is pure conjecture.
    Football is all about synergy. Replace a poor player with a great player and watch the surrounding players suddenly seem vastly improved. When you aren't covering for someone else, you can do YOUR JOB better.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Greythan View Post
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    No need to help me. I thought maybe you were trying to say something more insightful than evaluating QBs is difficult.
    It's pretty easy to evaluate QBs in the NFL. Evaluating them based on their college career as to how good they will be in the NFL is what's difficult. So once again your struggle with reading comprehension rears its ugly head.

    Here's something insightful that you'll appreciate: QBs are important.
    "That is the long *%#@ of truth that you both continue to juggle around your mouth..."

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    Hopefully the Bears or the Jets will save us from Trubisky. Or, hopefully Hue doesn't really want Trubisky and has been trying to sucker the Jets or Bears into taking him early.

    Best case scenario for us is Bears and Jets take Trubisky and Watson early, leaving us with a great defender at #12. Or Mahomes if he's Hue's guy.
    "That is the long *%#@ of truth that you both continue to juggle around your mouth..."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Martin Eden View Post
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    It's pretty easy to evaluate QBs in the NFL. Evaluating them based on their college career as to how good they will be in the NFL is what's difficult. So once again your struggle with reading comprehension rears its ugly head.
    This just oozes with irony.

    What set you off in the first place I wonder?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Greythan View Post
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    What does this even mean? Its like watching yourself on video from the day prior eating a piece of cake and saying, "It was better to get my cake and eat it too".

    If what you are espousing is a philosophy to take Garrett at #1 and a QB at #12 I only have this to say: You better be damn sure the target QB will be there at 12. Oakland got lucky and would likely admit it. Every single QB needy team passed on Carr. Oakland was just that much smarter? Give me a break. They were smart AND got lucky.

    I would never support a draft strategy that included reliance on luck.
    Yes, I am espousing a philosophy to take Garrett at 1 and a QB at 12. The reason is simple. I think there are at least three quarterbacks in this draft that, if developed properly, might conceivably turn out to be an upper level quarterback. At least one of them and probably all of them will be available at #12.

    And if you don't develop them properly, they will all be busts anyway. So you might as well go ahead and get the top edge rusher with the #1 pick.
    Last edited by Brownsfan; 04-20-2017 at 05:37 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nevada John View Post
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    Here is how I think the luck played out.

    I had Bridgewater as the only near ready QB but was afraid of how frail he looked.

    Bortles the number one project for height, a decent arm and made a difference on a good UCF team.

    Two not as tall projects:
    A. 'He who must not be named'
    B. Carr

    When the Raiders got to their second pick they were fortunate that Bortles went #3, Bridgewater went #32 AND a team had picked 'He who must not be named' at 22.

    Had that team picked Carr then the Raiders would have taken 'He who must not be named' and we would have a story Clevelanders would have liked a lot better.

    GO BROWNS!
    Hate to mention this in the middle of such a delightful conversation, but it is my opinion that if Carr had been drafted by the Browns in 2014, Carr would now be the one referred to as 'He who must not be named.'
    "A pessimist is one who says: 'Things can't get worse.' And an optimist is one who says, 'Yes they can.'" Alan Dershowitz
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brownsfan View Post
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    Yes, I am espousing a philosophy to take Garrett at 1 and a QB at 12.
    I sure wish we could trade down with the Titans. If Hue's convinced Trubisky or Watson is the guy he wants to tie his career to, we should draft him at #1.

    I don't think he does, at least not at #1. That would be a do or die commitment. I don't think Hue or Sashi want to make that play this year with this group. Trading up for one of them is also a big commitment and ties Hue to whichever we take. Not as big of a do or die, but pretty close.

    Taking one at #12 is not as big a commitment, but still pretty much do or die. Forever tied to Hue's success, unless Kessler explodes into Tom Fucking Brady.

    Trading up for Mahomes before the Texans (assuming the Arizona talk is a smokescreen), if Trubisky and Watson are gone, wouldn't be a do or die for Hue and Sashi. It would be seen as a high stakes gamble.

    Kizer in the 2nd or Webb or Dobbs later would signal Hue didn't want to hitch his wagon to any of the big 3.

    There are no easy choices. The pressure on Hue and Sashi to get this right is enormous. Rightfully so.

    Whatever they decide, I'll pull for it to be the right choice.
    "That is the long *%#@ of truth that you both continue to juggle around your mouth..."

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    Truth: Whenever a team gets Russ Wilson in three or Carr in two and then go around saying they knew he was gonna be great? That's absurd. If you knew he was gonna be great... and heard a rumor that he plays QUARTERBACK... that's a #1 overall, period. Nothing that any certain three or four or even five position players could do well enough to equal the value of a "great" quarterback.

    And yes, the Q word matters bigly (I can't stop). What's the value of a quarterback you'd categorize as "really good" for a decade? What would somebody who doesn't have one trade to get one? Knowing that you absolutely aren't winning very much for very long without one?

    There's no specific answer but it's a lot. If the Browns like Trubisky or anyone in this draft more than the rest... and I kinda think they do... then that pick will be far more important than the Garrett pick, which we're league mandated to make. Miles more important. Just like the Raiders, if Trubisky goes on to be really good, you'd give up Garrett eight days a week before you'd give up Trubisky.

    They're really hard to find.
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  18. #42
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    Pauline. One of the guys who's "been told" the Browns love them some Trubisky.

    http://draftanalyst.com/updated-four...-one-week-left

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    Amazing how Browns scouts aren't even saying shit to other scouts in the NFL yet are running to all these internet insiders to profess their love of certain players..... PT Barnum had a great quote about you.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBestPlayersPlay View Post
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    Hue has stated the guy he likes at QB will not be there at 12. If the Browns are not able to move up the board to procure said QB, they have failed the draft. For a political pick.
    Because maybe they're drafting one at 1?
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    Quote Originally Posted by King of Kings View Post
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    Amazing how Browns scouts aren't even saying shit to other scouts in the NFL yet are running to all these internet insiders to profess their love of certain players..... PT Barnum had a great quote about you.
    Welp? You said it yourself...... Par for course round here lately
    God Bless America

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stray Dawg View Post
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    Because maybe they're drafting one at 1?
    Sure, if they have balls of steel. Hope so.

    I can't stand it when a player whines to me or his teammates or his wife or the writers or anyone else.
    A whiner is almost always wrong. A winner never whines.
    - Paul Brown
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  23. #47
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    That would be some serious huevos right there. I can already hear the pundits criticizing if we did that. And on the flip side, if we take Garret and does not impact, and either Watson, Mahomes ll or Trubisky play well "the Browns had a chance to draft him at 1........" Or "the Browns should have drafted him"
    God Bless America

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  24. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by DawgFan View Post
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    Unless he has access to 11 teams draft boards, this is pure conjecture.
    Sounds like pre-planning....conjecture? sure, but the scenarios they are envisioning tells them to prepare as such.
    just beat it

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