- Awards
- 14
We can finally throw all those irrelevant rankings out the window and focus on the only ranking that matters...the college football playoff ranking. The CFP ranking was unveiled for the first time last Tuesday, and we saw some surprises.
1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Alabama
4. Penn State
5. Clemson
6. UGA
7. Oregon
8. Utah
9. Oklahoma
10. Florida
Some thoughts...
1. Ohio State
- No problem with this ranking. A very reasonable case can be made for LSU to be in this slot based on the much more difficult schedule; but OSU here can certainly be justified. OSU has been the lucky recipient of some very bad offensive competition which has inflated it's numbers. But again, no problem here.
2. LSU
- No real problem here. The metrics would put them outside of the Top 5 for me; but the resume and eye test put them back up here. I think you can have gone either LSU or OSU at 1 and 2 and been fine.
3. Alabama
- Here is my first problem with the rankings. There isn't a metric available that justifies Alabama in the #3 spot. Chairman Mullen's reasoning - "They just look better than Penn State". He dodged the question between Alabama and Clemson. I guess the committee didn't watch the Tennessee game...or pay attention to Alabama's mediocre defense this season. This is simply a ranking based on the name "Alabama" and past accomplishments...which aren't supposed to be considered.
4. Penn State
- Penn State isn't the 4th best team in the country. As a matter of fact, per Vegas, Penn State would be the underdog vs Ohio State, Alabama, Clemson, LSU, Oklahoma and Georgia. They would be double digit underdogs to Ohio State, Alabama and Clemson. Penn State, despite winning, was out-gained vs Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Iowa and Michigan...all teams with mediocre offenses. Penn State will get ran off the field vs Ohio State and vacate the Top 4 in a couple of week.
5 Clemson
- Interesting...the undefeated, defending National Champions not in the Top 4.
- Clemson has held 8 of 9 opponents to 14 points or less.
- Clemson has held all 9 opponents under 300 total yards of offense (hasn't happened in over 20 years).
- Clemson's defense has allowed 3 total TD's in non-garbage time all season
- Clemson has won 7 games by 30+ points.
6. UGA
- UGA was blown out at home (the game was not as close as the score indicated) by an under .500, really bad, SCar team. A SCar team who lost to UNC...the team Clemson is being penalized for beating. So UGA doesn't get penalized for losing to the bad team (at home) who lost to the team Clemson is being penalized for beating. BTW - The committee said that the SCar loss is negated by the win over Florida. You seriously can't make this level of idiocy up.
What the rankings SHOULD look like:
1. LSU
2. OSU
- Again, you could go either way with these two and be fine
3. Penn State
- Again, they won't finish in the Top 4. When they finally have to play a good football team, they will get beat down.
4. Clemson
5. Alabama
Let's compare here for a minute:
Per every SOS metric, both team's SOS is virtually the same. However...
- Clemson has beaten more Power 5 teams than Alabama
- Clemson has beaten more teams with a winning record than Alabama
- Clemson's opponents have an overall better win percentage than Alabama's opponents.
Opponents records through week 10:
- Alabama: 28-41
- Clemson: 38-40
- Alabama's opponents win percentage is .405...one of the worst of any P5 team
- Alabama's best win is Texas A&M; Clemson's best win is Texas A&M...in which Clemson's performance was more dominant.
- Clemson is the only team in the country in the Top 4 of both total offense & defense.
Total offense/defense ranking
Alabama: 9/16
Clemson: 3/4
- Clemson has 7 wins by 30 or more; Alabama has 4 wins by 30+
Clemson has held their opponents under their season average in every single category by a wide margin (total yards, YPP, points, PPP, etc...); Alabama has not.
There is no rational reason that Alabama should be ranked ahead of Clemson. Unless of course you are trying to create drama and discussion.
6. Oregon
7. Utah
8. Oklahoma
9. Baylor
10. UGA
Teams who control their own destiny:
- LSU, Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota, Baylor: win out and they're in.
- Oklahoma, Oregon, Utah and the loser of Alabama/LSU all need help.
As of today, how I think it all shakes out:
1. Ohio State
- I can't see Ohio State losing. They play UMD, Rutgers (both are trash); a very overrated Penn State and mediocre (at best) Michigan team. The B1G championship game could have Wisconsin (can't complete a forward pass) or Minnesota. OSU is the only team that OSU has to worry about. Just don't beat themselves and they are in.
2. Alabama
- Alabama has won 8 in a row and 10 of the last 12 over LSU. Until LSU beats them, I can't pick LSU. Auburn could present a challenge because of their front 7 on defense...and it's on the plains...but I have to trust Saban and Tua here. Alabama will play UGA in the SEC Championship Game. UGA hasn't beaten Alabama since 2007. That terrible passing game at UGA won't get it done this year.
3. Clemson
- Clemson won't face a challenge for the rest of the season, including the ACC Championship game.
4. Pac 12 champ (Oregon or Utah)
- The initial ranking set up the chance for a 1 loss Pac 12 Champion to make the 4th spot.
How that would all shake out:
1. Ohio State vs 4. Oregon/Utah
- Ohio State would be an approximate 11 point favorite per Vegas.
- Oregon has a powerful offense and their defense has been solid. However, I don't see them hanging for 4 quarters with Ohio State.
Ohio State wins 37-24
2. Alabama vs 3. Clemson
- Alabama would be an approximate 1.5 point favorite per Vegas
- Clemson has been the underdog in 6 of their 7 CFP games...and won 5 outright. Clemson DC Brent Venables confused Tua very badly last year on their way to a 44-16 beat down of the Crimson Tide. The only difference this year...Alabama's defense is much worse as is their running game.
Clemson wins 41-24
National Championship: 1. Ohio State vs 3. Clemson
- Ohio State would be an approximate 3 point favorite per Vegas
- Again, Brent Venables made Tua's head spin last year...and he was experienced. Venables will make Fields look like he is in the exorcist. Fields doesn't ever go to his 2nd read and relies too heavily on RPO's. Clemson is very familiar with that style. The coaching match-up leans heavily in Clemson's favor as does the experience on the field factor. Playing in the B1G, OSU doesn't see speed like Clemson possess on both sides of the ball...which will be a big factor.
Clemson wins 34-24
1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Alabama
4. Penn State
5. Clemson
6. UGA
7. Oregon
8. Utah
9. Oklahoma
10. Florida
Some thoughts...
1. Ohio State
- No problem with this ranking. A very reasonable case can be made for LSU to be in this slot based on the much more difficult schedule; but OSU here can certainly be justified. OSU has been the lucky recipient of some very bad offensive competition which has inflated it's numbers. But again, no problem here.
2. LSU
- No real problem here. The metrics would put them outside of the Top 5 for me; but the resume and eye test put them back up here. I think you can have gone either LSU or OSU at 1 and 2 and been fine.
3. Alabama
- Here is my first problem with the rankings. There isn't a metric available that justifies Alabama in the #3 spot. Chairman Mullen's reasoning - "They just look better than Penn State". He dodged the question between Alabama and Clemson. I guess the committee didn't watch the Tennessee game...or pay attention to Alabama's mediocre defense this season. This is simply a ranking based on the name "Alabama" and past accomplishments...which aren't supposed to be considered.
4. Penn State
- Penn State isn't the 4th best team in the country. As a matter of fact, per Vegas, Penn State would be the underdog vs Ohio State, Alabama, Clemson, LSU, Oklahoma and Georgia. They would be double digit underdogs to Ohio State, Alabama and Clemson. Penn State, despite winning, was out-gained vs Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Iowa and Michigan...all teams with mediocre offenses. Penn State will get ran off the field vs Ohio State and vacate the Top 4 in a couple of week.
5 Clemson
- Interesting...the undefeated, defending National Champions not in the Top 4.
- Clemson has held 8 of 9 opponents to 14 points or less.
- Clemson has held all 9 opponents under 300 total yards of offense (hasn't happened in over 20 years).
- Clemson's defense has allowed 3 total TD's in non-garbage time all season
- Clemson has won 7 games by 30+ points.
6. UGA
- UGA was blown out at home (the game was not as close as the score indicated) by an under .500, really bad, SCar team. A SCar team who lost to UNC...the team Clemson is being penalized for beating. So UGA doesn't get penalized for losing to the bad team (at home) who lost to the team Clemson is being penalized for beating. BTW - The committee said that the SCar loss is negated by the win over Florida. You seriously can't make this level of idiocy up.
What the rankings SHOULD look like:
1. LSU
2. OSU
- Again, you could go either way with these two and be fine
3. Penn State
- Again, they won't finish in the Top 4. When they finally have to play a good football team, they will get beat down.
4. Clemson
5. Alabama
Let's compare here for a minute:
Per every SOS metric, both team's SOS is virtually the same. However...
- Clemson has beaten more Power 5 teams than Alabama
- Clemson has beaten more teams with a winning record than Alabama
- Clemson's opponents have an overall better win percentage than Alabama's opponents.
Opponents records through week 10:
- Alabama: 28-41
- Clemson: 38-40
- Alabama's opponents win percentage is .405...one of the worst of any P5 team
- Alabama's best win is Texas A&M; Clemson's best win is Texas A&M...in which Clemson's performance was more dominant.
- Clemson is the only team in the country in the Top 4 of both total offense & defense.
Total offense/defense ranking
Alabama: 9/16
Clemson: 3/4
- Clemson has 7 wins by 30 or more; Alabama has 4 wins by 30+
Clemson has held their opponents under their season average in every single category by a wide margin (total yards, YPP, points, PPP, etc...); Alabama has not.
There is no rational reason that Alabama should be ranked ahead of Clemson. Unless of course you are trying to create drama and discussion.
6. Oregon
7. Utah
8. Oklahoma
9. Baylor
10. UGA
Teams who control their own destiny:
- LSU, Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota, Baylor: win out and they're in.
- Oklahoma, Oregon, Utah and the loser of Alabama/LSU all need help.
As of today, how I think it all shakes out:
1. Ohio State
- I can't see Ohio State losing. They play UMD, Rutgers (both are trash); a very overrated Penn State and mediocre (at best) Michigan team. The B1G championship game could have Wisconsin (can't complete a forward pass) or Minnesota. OSU is the only team that OSU has to worry about. Just don't beat themselves and they are in.
2. Alabama
- Alabama has won 8 in a row and 10 of the last 12 over LSU. Until LSU beats them, I can't pick LSU. Auburn could present a challenge because of their front 7 on defense...and it's on the plains...but I have to trust Saban and Tua here. Alabama will play UGA in the SEC Championship Game. UGA hasn't beaten Alabama since 2007. That terrible passing game at UGA won't get it done this year.
3. Clemson
- Clemson won't face a challenge for the rest of the season, including the ACC Championship game.
4. Pac 12 champ (Oregon or Utah)
- The initial ranking set up the chance for a 1 loss Pac 12 Champion to make the 4th spot.
How that would all shake out:
1. Ohio State vs 4. Oregon/Utah
- Ohio State would be an approximate 11 point favorite per Vegas.
- Oregon has a powerful offense and their defense has been solid. However, I don't see them hanging for 4 quarters with Ohio State.
Ohio State wins 37-24
2. Alabama vs 3. Clemson
- Alabama would be an approximate 1.5 point favorite per Vegas
- Clemson has been the underdog in 6 of their 7 CFP games...and won 5 outright. Clemson DC Brent Venables confused Tua very badly last year on their way to a 44-16 beat down of the Crimson Tide. The only difference this year...Alabama's defense is much worse as is their running game.
Clemson wins 41-24
National Championship: 1. Ohio State vs 3. Clemson
- Ohio State would be an approximate 3 point favorite per Vegas
- Again, Brent Venables made Tua's head spin last year...and he was experienced. Venables will make Fields look like he is in the exorcist. Fields doesn't ever go to his 2nd read and relies too heavily on RPO's. Clemson is very familiar with that style. The coaching match-up leans heavily in Clemson's favor as does the experience on the field factor. Playing in the B1G, OSU doesn't see speed like Clemson possess on both sides of the ball...which will be a big factor.
Clemson wins 34-24
