If he loses we are screwed. not to worried. these Turkeys look like they are throwing this. :rip:
they look like a shit show. but I don't get out much lately lol
Law and order has worked in the past.
And in another month, the Coronavirus may not be the issue it is now. The mortality rate keeps dropping and I think it is because the virus is mutating and becoming less dangerous. On June 22, I reported that the ratio of death to new cases has dropped from .072 in April to .050 in May to .021 in June based on 7 day running averages.
https://www.barkinghard.com/forums/threads/294882-The-quot-Book-It-quot-thread!?p=678663#post678663
At the time, I suggested that the possible reasons were as follows:
1. More testing leading to additional asymptomatic cases being discovered.
2. The coronavirus becoming less virulent.
3. Better protection of vulnerable members of society, so fewer of those getting the disease and dying.
4. Better care of patients while in the hospital.
Yesterday, the ratio dropped from .011 the day before to .010 based on a 7 day running average of new cases and deaths. Specifically, the 7 day average for new cases was 49,104 and the 7 day average for deaths dropped to 513. the calculated ratio is 513 deaths / 49,104 new cases = .010.
On 6-22-2020, the calculated ratio for 7 day running average was 618 deaths / 29,135 new cases = .021.
The other piece of data available is the number of tests. On June 22, the 7 day running average for testing was 510,169. Yesterday, the 7 day running average for testing was 625,519.
Nationally, in the past 2 weeks:
The number of tests has increased about 22%.
The number of new cases has increased about 68%.
The number of deaths have decreased about 20%.
First, I think it should be clear that while testing probably uncovered a few more new cases than would have otherwise been uncovered, an increase of testing by 22% did not result in a 68% increase in new cases.
Second, between June 22 and July 6, better protection of vulnerable populations did not happen. Perhaps from April to June, we did better--but not after June 22.
Third, hospital care has not improved significantly in the past two weeks.
My conclusion, therefore, is that mutations making the virus both more easily spread and less dangerous have occurred. Assuming that to be the case, here is where I think we are and where we are going:
With a ratio of death / new cases of .010, this means that if one is in reasonably good health and one contracts the disease tomorrow, one has a 99% chance of survival. (One out of a hundred who get the disease will die.)
The number of new cases will likely level off and the number of deaths will continue to drop although at a lower rate. I think the ratio will level off somewhere between .010 and .005 in the next couple of months. This latter number is based on the current ratio of selected states that I following in some detail:
New York, .0270
California, .0092
Texas, .0054
Florida, .0053
Arizona, .0091
Oklahoma, .0043
It is noted that New York has a significant higher ratio of death to new cases than the southern and western states. New York does about the same amount of testing as Texas and Florida, but while they have about as many deaths, they seem to have significantly fewer cases. I tend to suspect that the nature of the virus is responsible for the difference since I can’t think of anything else that could be causing it. Thus I expect the ratio for New York to drop significantly in the near future while I expect the ratios in Texas and Florida to remain about the same. I think the number of deaths will continue on its downward path in all states and the national average will approximate that of Texas and Florida in the next couple of months.
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EDIT: It has occurred to me that for completeness, I ought to include the ratios for the world at large and give an indication of the drift either upward or downward. Therefore I have calculated the data for the world also based on a 7 day running average. For the world, the ratio on June 22 was .0338 based on a 7 day average of 147,489 new cases and 4,984 deaths.
On July 5, the ratio was .0241 based on a 7 day average of 187,881 new cases and 4,556 deaths. My guess is that one of the reasons the world at large has a significantly higher ratio than the US would be hospital care. Or perhaps the virus has not mutated throughout the world at large to the same degree as it has in the USA.
Also, since we have discussed the surge in cases in Australia recently, I would note that they had two deaths yesterday and their mortality ratio increased from .0000 to .0024 as a result based on a 7 day running average of 117 new cases per day as of yesterday and the 2 deaths they suffered yesterday.