I’m not sure I understand exactly what Tier 1 or Tier 2 means in the context of the original post. I don’t think it’s as simple as breaking things down into rigid tiers. Instead, I think of players as starters, contributors, busts, etc.
As a GM in the NFL, you absolutely have to hit on your first-round picks. There’s no way around it. You need to hit on your second-rounders most of the time and go about 50/50 on third-round picks. That’s what the best teams do. After that, it becomes a major crapshoot.
My assessment of Berry’s 1st & 2nd round picks:
2020 NFL Draft
1.10 - OT, Jedrick Wills
This was a loaded OT draft. Andrew Thomas went #4 to the Giants, so no need to compare there—he turned into a franchise left tackle. Mekhi Becton showed flashes as a rookie but got hurt in Year 2 and was never the same. Wills was the third OT selected in this class. He had moments but was very inconsistent and dealt with injuries throughout his tenure. Meanwhile, Tristan Wirfs, taken right after him, became an immediate star and a First-Team All-Pro.
Verdict: Bust. Wills never lived up to the expectations of a top-10 pick, while Wirfs became an elite player. A first-round OT should be a decade-long solution, and Wills wasn’t that.
2.44 - S, Grant Delpit
Delpit was projected to go higher but fell to the second round. Berry loves value picks, and this was one he couldn’t pass up. He missed his entire rookie season due to an Achilles injury but rebounded to become a reliable starter in the secondary. He isn’t an elite safety, but he contributes and plays at a solid level.
Verdict: Good pick. Not a star, but a dependable contributor.
2021 NFL Draft
1.26 - CB, Greg Newsome
Started out as an outside corner before eventually moving into the slot. Didn’t record his first career interception until Year 3, which was also his best season under Jim Schwartz.
Verdict: Solid player, but not elite. You’d hope for a little more from a first-rounder, but he’s been a good—not great—contributor. The issue here is Tyson Campbell was available and has been a cornerstone for Jacksonville.
2.52 - LB, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (JOK)
This was widely considered a steal at the time. Berry saw another value drop and went after it. JOK was turning into an elite-level linebacker before his recent injury, which now puts his career in jeopardy.
Verdict: Great pick. Outperformed his draft position, and before the injury, he was playing at a Pro Bowl-caliber level.
2022 & 2023 NFL Drafts
No 1st or 2nd round picks due to the Deshaun Watson trade.
2024 NFL Draft
No 1st round pick
2nd Round - DT, Siaki Ika
Too early to tell, but he didn’t contribute much as a rookie. The Browns let Dalvin Tomlinson walk this offseason, so it’s clear they believe in their young DT group of Ika and Maurice Hall.
Verdict: TBD. Needs to show something in Year 2.
Overall Verdict
Berry has not done well in the first round.
• Wills was a bust, and he passed on Wirfs, who became an All-Pro tackle.
• Newsome has been solid, but Tyson Campbell was right there and has turned into a cornerstone piece for the Jags.
Berry has shined in Round 2, where he finds value picks on players who drop. Delpit and JOK were both good selections.
All that said, I don’t have much faith that Berry will make the right decision with pick #2 in this year’s draft. Quarterback is the only logical pick, but even when Berry gets the position right, he has a history of picking the wrong player. I expect the wrong move like a DE or WR or trade down instead of the proper move, QB (Ward or Sanders) at 2.
