Analytics | Page 2 | Barking Hard

Analytics

Danamal said:
Analytics is definitely the future but I have to ask would that new rating system would have made Peyton Manning obviously better than Ryan Leaf?
Tom Brady sixth round ?
Brian Sipe round thirteen?
I know there are always exceptions to the rule but Gordon and Calloway don’t play because of there own personal demons.
Antonio Brown will play for someone next
season even though he has lost his mind!

You guys and gal have brought up a lot of great enthusiasm for analytics and number
crunching and I applaud its applications
maybe I’m just ignorant but raw data can’t give you the same results in every field it
just can’t.
I bet they analyzed Mayfield and he was as advertised.
Then life sets in and numbers go to shit.
Cross your fingers on year three or do we already know all we need to know?

I’m not trying to sound like an asshole there just seem to be intangibles that raw data can’t tell you or can it?
I’m being sincere and asking questions on how analytics is applied and can it answer
the question of character and work ethic
or is it based solely on numbers,routes,speed,agility and so on.

I totally get how it can be applied in the work force,I saw Moneyball and was amazed by how they became competitive
with a third of the payroll, again not trying to piss anyone off ,just trying to get the whole picture.
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Great questions! Let me try to tackle this. Keep in mind I am not a DePo fan, or rather DePo with any power or control.

That said, and I said that because in the RIGHT hands with the RIGHT knowledge for it analytics can be a phenomenal tool. If you just go off a data sheet and say done? No. If you utilize the data sheet WITH the eyeball test and old school football knowledge? You now have a tool. To put it another way: Had Paul Brown had full blown modern analytics at his disposal he would have 15 straight Lombardi trophies and probably 10 undefeated seasons.

Let's use your Tom Brady example. You pluck the Patriots current F.O. and Caserio and drop then in the year 2000 and the Pats likely grab Brady in the 1st or 2nd round. What the analytics do is it shows certain patterns. I am glad you mentioned Brady as that is a GREAT example. Probably the best example possible.

Brady fell because of a slender frame and a perceived "weak throw." The knock was he was a skinny guy and didn't have a cannon, so he fell. Most everything else was off the charts. Now let's plug in the analytics. With analytics you can plug in numerous variables, here is an example and that is all this is. When Brady was drafted he was 210lbs and again, "average arm." With analytics you can plug into the data for example his hardest throw at U of M is 55MPH. Back then who cared. NOW you can cross reference that with QB's of the same height with a cannon. Let's use Manning as an example. Same height, but Manning is 235lbs with a velocity of 80MPH, his passes are perfect 25 yards deeper. Okay, great. There is a baseline. Now a 6'4", 230lb QB. Now 6'4", 225lbs. Aha, we just discovered the variable. So if we so as Brady did, bulk up to 225lbs through weight training and his QB Coach his passes are now accurate 20 yards deeper and he has added 15MPH to his velocity.

A crude example, but I am on a mobile device. That is a brief description of how it works and why it really is valuable. As analytics continues to evolve the game these Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Bart Scott, James Harrison ect outliers will no longer happen.

Also, it doesn't just apply to scouting College players. It appplies to EVERYTHING. Even down to the playbook wherein you can run the talent you have compared to the talent in the NFL and determine what plays have a higher % with the personnel you have. Another example: you have a bunch of WR's that are over 6' tall and over 210lbs. You can plug in the data, cross reference against the NFL and design your playbook. For example you like tight formations and a guy running under routes to gain small chunks of yardage. With analytics you can determine your WR's don't fit that, that statistically the best WR type for that is under 5'10", under 200lbs and playing in the slot. You don't have that BUT you do have a RB who can catch passes that fits that mold. Or a guy on the bench who fits that mold, you put him in and you now have a star.

True example, Belichek has been doing that with
undersized slot WR's and RB's for a long time now.

Can it replace good old expertise and knowledge and having that NFL 3rd eye for things? Absolutely not. It can however make that guys job a he'll of a lot easier, more focused and more streamlined to the point he CAN find the Tom Brady outliers only instead of once and at one position he finds them over and over again in all of the key positions.
 
Ragnar said:
Can it replace good old expertise and knowledge and having that NFL 3rd eye for things? Absolutely not. It can however make that guys job a he'll of a lot easier, more focused and more streamlined to the point he CAN find the Tom Brady outliers only instead of once and at one position he finds them over and over again in all of the key positions.
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THIS!!!

That is the disconnect. Those who hate analytics think it REPLACES scouting. It couldn't be further from the truth. It should be used to AUGMENT. There will be times analytics and the eye test don't line up. It is then the job of the FOOTBALL guys to make that INFORMED decision. In basketball, Spud Webb should NOT be able to dunk...but he can. Analytics would hate him...but a coach might love him. I have seen overweight short pitchers do great...analytics would hate them...but a coach might love them.

The FINAL DECISION is still in the hands of the coaches/scouts/GM....but analytics will give them insight into stuff they CAN'T see with the naked eye.

Stray Dawg said:
So someone please remind me again what happened last time the team went full blown analytics?. Average talent and players who would be backups on any other team?
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First, that was a full blown tear down. Second, awful coaching and a 1st time GM that couldn't make his own decisions. Third, how do we know what kind of players they would have been if given a stable coaching environment?

You can't take that one time (analytics allows for outliers) and make a sweeping judgement.
 
DawgFan said:
THIS!!!

That is the disconnect. Those who hate analytics think it REPLACES scouting. It couldn't be further from the truth. It should be used to AUGMENT. There will be times analytics and the eye test don't line up. It is then the job of the FOOTBALL guys to make that INFORMED decision. In basketball, Spud Webb should NOT be able to dunk...but he can. Analytics would hate him...but a coach might love him. I have seen overweight short pitchers do great...analytics would hate them...but a coach might love them.

The FINAL DECISION is still in the hands of the coaches/scouts/GM....but analytics will give them insight into stuff they CAN'T see with the naked eye.



First, that was a full blown tear down. Second, awful coaching and a 1st time GM that couldn't make his own decisions. Third, how do we know what kind of players they would have been if given a stable coaching environment?

You can't take that one time (analytics allows for outliers) and make a sweeping judgement.
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Well it wasn't all that long ago, so in terms of how well those players may have done with stabil coaching? Where are they now? Are any of them starting for other teams and playing at a pro bowl level?
 
Similar to analytics, Monte Carlo style risk management software has been used for years in engineering. You slice and dice up every conceivable risk, the probabilities and best case/worst case value consequences and load the data and run the program

The results determine how much money you "most likely" need across the entire scheduled duration of the project.

Cap space would be a perfect application of this tool

Adding a player like the Giants LT vet Trent, would be one of the risks, injury probability, salary and such factor in. You add existing players, wants, needs, resigning our players and run numerous models that provide the best bang for the buck risk and performance wise

On any given subject, you can determine a risk based "how much to bid", "how much to offer" threshold that you are willing to do
 
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Stray Dawg said:
Well it wasn't all that long ago, so in terms of how well those players may have done with stabil coaching? Where are they now? Are any of them starting for other teams and playing at a pro bowl level?
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Problem with that Stray, and you know this, is players that have not proven it before moving on to the next team generally do not get the same level of opportunities as the players drafted or 'key' FA acquisitions. With that said, these 3 are doing nicely.

Carl Nassib 6.0 sacks
Emmanual Ogbah 5.5 sacks
Jabrill Peppers
 
What a bunch of Ball busters!, lol
Dawgfan started a thread that many seem
passionate about why give em a hard time
all I was asking for was a better understanding
of its overall applications, wasn’t trying to start a
flame war or anything and I appreciate the thread
and the explanations.
While it seems good at thinning the heard as some have
hinted at ,seems to me It’s another tool for the toolbox
that can cut down on the risk reward check box but it can’t
Stop a Ryan Leaf or two from slipping on by so you still
go from what you see and feel and roll the dice sometimes.

Thanks to Dawgfan and Ragnor for taking the time to explain analytics
Much appreciated!, and congrats PGL!
 
Danamal said:
What a bunch of Ball busters!, lol
Dawgfan started a thread that many seem
passionate about why give em a hard time
all I was asking for was a better understanding
of its overall applications, wasn’t trying to start a
flame war or anything and I appreciate the thread
and the explanations.
While it seems good at thinning the heard as some have
hinted at ,seems to me It’s another tool for the toolbox
that can cut down on the risk reward check box but it can’t
Stop a Ryan Leaf or two from slipping on by so you still
go from what you see and feel and roll the dice sometimes.

Thanks to Dawgfan and Ragnor for taking the time to explain analytics
Much appreciated!, and congrats PGL!
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yes, it's another tool in the toolbox.
And no, of course, no system is waterproof.
But remember this simple formula:

luck = chance * opportunity

Which means, if you put yourself in a situation with desirable outcome often enough, you could get lucky, then if you optimize your chances, you might get lucky many times.

I'm sorry to bring up the name of Sashi Brown, but he's someone who understood this formula very much.
This guy had many bad sides on his coin, but he did have this one good side, and that was to optimize picks.
Now Dorsey got all those extra picks and we applaud him to pick the players that he did.
Except he didn't get a LT when he needed one, but got a guard for some reason. Which derailed the complete offensive line for some reason. But I digress.

Dorsey was power hungry; you could see it on the video where they showed it when he drafted Baker Mayfield.
I thought "ok, that's a good pick, but you really didn't overthink this with anyone else? That one egotistical move if I ever saw one."
Which kinda make me wonder how he operated at all.
If he made #1 picks like that, then how the hell does this guy manage a football team.

Did he really not think that a Head Coach and GM should work together on this?
"Yeahbut his head coach was Clueless Hue Jackson!"
So? If you really think he's clueles Hue, then you should've fired him already.

Dorsey is gone, bye bye, he was only in it for the cash, not for the super bowls.
I hope the next one that is in here for 2 years will be better.
 
I'm down with anything of the sort to be honest. If the data can be qualified why not try to use it to your advantage. With us changing coaches every other year it can be difficult to use any data to any such proficiency but I think to not try and get the most out of it we need to have some actual consistency to our coaching and systems and go from that.
 
Chuck Brown said:
It'd be pretty cool and funny if you plugged all these variables into a computer these last few years and you just got something on the screen only saying Shit Show!!
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Well that's exactly what we got last time around. A shit show. And at the time, the guys who are all gung-ho and all in on analytics now, are the same guys all in and gung-ho then. The only thing missing is Sashimi. The names have changed, but the concept is the same. When you look at humans solely as a number or statistic in sports, the destiny will be failure. There are so many other aspects that must come into effect that Depodesta and the Haslams just don't get. And to some extent, the same is true for some of the fans because to some, numbers and stats are fun to play with and manipulate to fit a narrative. Analytics cannot, and will never measure a man's heart, soul and drive which I think is what gets lost in all this when too much emphasis is put on analytics.
 
Stray Dawg said:
Well that's exactly what we got last time around. A shit show. And at the time, the guys who are all gung-ho and all in on analytics now, are the same guys all in and gung-ho then. The only thing missing is Sashimi. The names have changed, but the concept is the same. When you look at humans solely as a number or statistic in sports, the destiny will be failure. There are so many other aspects that must come into effect that Depodesta and the Haslams just don't get. And to some extent, the same is true for some of the fans because to some, numbers and stats are fun to play with and manipulate to fit a narrative. Analytics cannot, and will never measure a man's heart, soul and drive which I think is what gets lost in all this when too much emphasis is put on analytics.
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This ^^^^ Is exactly what I've been saying...
 
Stray Dawg said:
Well that's exactly what we got last time around.
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Look at the team that year...it was in tear down mode, and we did. Tore it all the way down. We are NOT in that mode any longer, so it won't happen.

but, let's ignore that basic premise because it doesn't support the value of analytics...which has a shit ton more application than just budget.
 
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