The Trump economy, three years in: What the numbers say
Its the same general trendline and in total you can see that we've added, what, a half million manufacturing jobs while Trump's been in office with most of those gains coming earlier? 2019, for example, was flat.
Second, and I think more interesting is this notion that manufacturing jobs are the future. I find this a very short sighted perspective, at least the way Trump tends to pander to his base on the topic. Like it or not we are heading into an automation world with robotics and other advanced technologies. We have to begin at least thinking about what a post manual labor driven job market looks like.
Sure, this second point isn't an immediate issue but 20 years from now the world is going to look a lot differently. 40-50 years from now? Who knows. Point being? Our kids/grandkids will need to figure these issues out and Trump's MASSIVE increasing of the federal deficit is a bill they'll have to pay. Again, that's another question/issue.
This week, Donald Trump has been president for three years. So with a three-year track record, how is the "Trump economy" doing?
Did Trump dramatically change economic trends, or did he merely continue existing trends from the Obama administration?
FOX Business ran the numbers, comparing basic economic performance measures for the same number of days before and after Trump's election.
Here's how trends have changed:
Stock market
The graph shows that the stock market grew
31 percent in the 807 trading days before Trump's election, but it grew by
56 percent in the 807 trading days after it, up through the third anniversary of Trump's inauguration.
In the graph above, the blue line shows the trend prior to Trump's election, and the red lines since then.
More than half of Americans invest in the stock market, either directly or through 401(k)s and other retirement funds
Some economists say the gains show tax cuts and freer markets are working.
"The administration policies on tax cuts and deregulation have been good for both Wall Street and Main Street," economist David Henderson, who served on President Ronald Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers, told FOX Business. He said the big improvement came even despite an expensive trade war.
The outcome is also a far cry what some had predicted. After Trump's election, Nobel-prize-winning economist Paul Krugman predicted: "We are very probably looking at a
global recession, with no end in sight."
But a former Obama economic advisor says there are less rosy trends outside the stock market.
"It has really been a tale of two economies lately. Consumer related things have been strong. But anything relating to business investment or manufacturing or trade has been quite tough," economist Austan Goolsbee, who advised President Obama's campaign and chaired Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, told FOX Business. "Manufacturing has literally been in recession. Part of that has come from the damage from the tariffs. Another part has been that the tax cuts did not seem to generate anything close to the kind of sustained improvement that was promised."
Manufacturing
Manufacturing fell 1.2 percent during two quarters in the middle of 2019, before recovering partly in the latest reported quarter. Goolsbee said that qualifies as a recession over the last six months.
But overall, manufacturing has risen under the Trump administration, and it has done so faster than before he was president.
Manufacturing rose 3.6 percent during Trump's three years, which was
more than double the rise of 1.7 percent in the three years under Obama before that, according to government data.
Manufacturing employment also rose under Trump, with
487,000 manufacturing jobs created.
In contrast, in the three years prior to Trump's term, manufacturing employment rose by
287,000 jobs.
Asked about the difference, Goolsbee pointed to the Purchasing Managers' Index – a survey of senior executives at manufacturing companies that asks about their new orders and inventory levels. The index is currently low, hinting that the near future of manufacturing might be bleak.
Unemployment
Unemployment fell under Trump, but it was already falling at a rapid pace before he came to office:
Economists say that the continued decline is particularly impressive since the rate is nearing record lows. The current rate is
lowest it has been in the last 50 years.
"We are approaching ... record low unemployment rates and once one gets so close to zero, it cannot continue to fall at the rates that it [used to]," Ed Stringham, President of the American Institute for Economic Research, told FOX Business.
Former Trump advisors also note that after Trump came to office, government estimates had to be dramatically revised in a positive direction to match the new reality.
"Before Mr. Trump took office in January 2017, the Congressional Budget Office forecast the creation of only
two million jobs by this point. The economy has in fact created
seven million jobs,
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-economy-three-years-numbers-110011233.html
Real Right Wing this Yahoo thing